If you were concerned either that the Cub offense wouldn’t return to form or about how long it would be before it did, then Friday night was a comforting game. The pitching was a little rough around the edges. Most concerningly, they allowed three homers. But that Cub offense had 14 hits and drew six walks. The Dodgers offense had a pretty good night offensively themselves, but the Cubs output was enough to bounce back into the top on-base percentage position among major league teams.
The fun part
is the White Sox slugged three homers (not fun) and managed five total runs. The Cubs four doubles among their 14 hits, but managed 10 runs. Generally the team that slugs better is a good bet to win a game, but that didn’t hold here. The Cubs only slugged .439 while the Sox were at .576. So it wasn’t even a little close. The thing is, that’s a better than average slugging percentage for the Cubs and all the more impressive when you consider that they had 48 plate appearances (though the divisor is at bats and not PA).
All nine Cub starters had hits and four of the 10 players either drew walks or were hit by a pitch. So this was a diverse and balanced offensive output. Six different Cubs scored runs and six drove in a run. Eight of the nine starters and nine players overall had either a run or run batted in. All in all, the Cubs forced Sox pitchers to make 194 pitches. We haven’t talked about that this year, but that’s the kind of thing that could potentially win an additional game later in the series. The White Sox had to use five relievers and Jordan Hicks threw 35 pitches. That could affect his availability later in the series.
It wasn’t particularly easy, but things broke loose quite a bit. Hopefully, this win carries the team through the weekend. The Saturday game was the one that Fangraphs had as the most likely Sox win of the bunch. So nothing totally unexpected in this win. But it was just what the doctor ordered, just the same. This offense tends to either be locked in or out of whack. Maybe this locks them back in. The Sox are going to score some runs with the power they have in their lineup. The general path to victory is going to be scoring a handful (or two) of runs.
Three Positives:
- Carson Kelly had three hits, one of them a double, and drove in four runs.
- Trent Thornton had two key innings, striking out two and facing the minimum of six batters to do it. He quieted the game right when it was important for the Cubs to take control.
- Seiya Suzuki had a single and a double, drew a walk. He drove in a run and scored two.
Game 45, May 15: Cubs 10, White Sox 5 (29-16)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Trent Thornton (.281). 2 IP, 6 BF, 2 K
- Hero: Carson Kelly (.274). 3-5, 2B, 4 RBI
- Sidekick: Matt Shaw (.078). HBP, BB, RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Ryan Rolison (-.243). 0.1 IP, 4 BF, 2 H, BB, ER
- Goat: Edward Cabrera (-.105). 4.2 IP, 19 BF, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 ER, 2 K
- Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.026). 1-6, R
WPA Play of the Game: With the bases loaded and two outs in the seventh inning, the score tied, Carson Kelly had an infield single, driving in a run. (.183)
White Sox Play of the Game: In the bottom of the sixth with the Cubs up one, Miguel Vargas led off with a solo homer. (.183)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 44 Winner: Brown 173 of 231 votes
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch/Shōta Imanaga +13
- Michael Conforto +12
- Ian Happ +7.5
- Ben Brown +5.5
- Caleb Thielbar -6
- Phil Maton -7
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -11
- Seiya Suzuki -17
Current Win Pace: 104.4 wins
Up Next: Game two of the three-game series Saturday night on the South Side. Jameson Taillon (2-2, 3.94, 45.2 IP) gets his ninth start of the year. Last time out, he was pretty good against the Rangers, despite taking the loss. He allowed one run on four hits and two walks in 5.1 innings. He’s been better at home but also better at night, so this is a decent spot for Taillon. The one issue is that his Achilles Heel has been allowing homers. He’s served up 11 of them already in 45.2 IP.
29-year-old Davis Martin (5-1, 1.62, 50 IP) makes his ninth start of the year. He’s been flat out terrific for them. He’s pitched in parts of three previous seasons with a combined career ERA of 3.88 (306 IP). Last time out, he got a no-decision against the Mariners despite allowing only one run over six innings. He struck out nine and walked only two in that one. Martin was a 14th round pick of the White Sox back in 2018 (408th overall). All of his splits are pretty good but at home he has a 1.02 ERA. He doesn’t walk a lot of hitters.
It isn’t hard to see why Fangraphs likes this one for the Sox. Let’s ignore the script and get one anyway.
Go Cubs!
