145 games into the Cubs season, they’ve not had a four-game losing streak (and also haven’t won six straight). They had to win Tuesday night to keep that statement accurate. They handled the ball to their promising rookie and he was more than up to the task. The Cubs gave him a run before he took the mound and a second one before his third inning of work. He made those two runs hold up for one of his longest outings of the season.
Cade Horton has now completed 110 innings with an ERA of 2.70 and a FIP
of 3.62 that suggests it isn’t too much of a fluke. He has a 43.7 percent ground ball rate and with an elite infield defense around him, that’s an effective approach. He has stranded 78 percent of runners which is high, but not excessively so. He has allowed a batting average on balls in play of .261 that doesn’t look too crazy either. While that is below league average, but not so far outside of the norm as to look like an aberration either. As with all of the awards, there are multiple quality candidates for the NL Rookie of the Year, but make no mistake, Cade is a legitimate contender as well. I don’t lose sleep over who wins, but I do believe he should be a finalist for the award, barring the bottom falling out over what I assume are three more starts.
The Cubs got it done offensively with seven hits, six walks and a hit by pitch. Only one hitter had two hits, so this was a balanced offensive approach. It was a great sign to see Pete Crow-Armstrong leading the offense with a single, walk and hit by pitch. He stole two bases, drove in two and scored one. This was a very productive night for PCA. Eight of the nine Cub hitters reached base and six of them scored runs.
Dominant pitching, enough hitting and a nice win. With 15 games to go, they’ll need to go 8-7 to reach 90 wins. 90 would absolutely get them into the postseason. It has a very strong chance of bringing them the top Wild Card. One win at a time. Keep ticking them down. The next win will equal their total in each of the last two seasons. So that’s the next target. Tomorrow would be a great time to get there.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 124, 32 BF
- Braves: 155, 40 BF
The Cubs threw a tidy 13.77 pitches per inning and had five excess batters. As good as Cade Horton was in this one, those excellent numbers were nailed down by eight up, eight down, very efficiently out of the Cub bullpen. The Braves throw 17.22 per inning and face a whopping 13 batters over the minimum. The Cubs were just on the cusp of blowing this out of the water, but didn’t get over the hill.
The Braves had just one reliever go over 20 pitches and that was Alexis Diaz who went all the way to 28. He had a rough outing and that was where the game got away from the Braves for good. The Cub relievers got those eight outs from three relievers on 37 pitches. The whole staff only struck out six in this one. That helped keep that count down. Andrew Kittredge and Caleb Thielbar who threw in the game are, I think, firmly in the second group of Cub relievers. Things are a little shuffled while Daniel Palencia is down, but I think that’s probably still right.
Three Stars:
- These top two go hand in hand. The Cubs needed a really great start and they needed their offensive stars to be stars. Cade Horton was somehow a little worse than he’s been recently. By that, I mean, he actually allowed a run and he only struck out two. We use the word shove often around the performance of various players. Cade has shoved the whole second half of this season.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong shoved himself in the first half. The second has been a struggle. But he reached base three times, added a sacrifice fly for the first run, had another run batted in besides that, stole two bases and scored a run. A real star performance.
- Ian Happ had two hits, including the Cubs’ only extra base hit. wRC+ of 113. Still needs one more kick to reach his career numbers.
Game 145, September 9: Cubs 6, Braves 1 (82-63)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Cade Horton (.281). 6.1 IP, 24 BF, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 2 K (W 10-4)
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.131). 1-2, BB, HBP, SF, 2 RBI, R, 2 SB
- Sidekick: Andrew Kittredge (.114). 0.2 IP, 2 BF, K
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Carson Kelly (-.163). 0-4
- Goat: Willi Castro (-.069). 1-3,BB, R
- Kid: Matt Shaw (-.019). 0-4, BB, R
WPA Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson’s walk with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth gave the Cubs a two-run lead. (.110)
*Braves Play of the Game: Jake Fraley batted with a runner on first and one out in the fifth, Braves down one. He singled, sending the runner to third. (.096)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Shata Imanaga (42 of 88 votes).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +20
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Cade Horton +15.5
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Carson Kelly -20
- Dansby Swanson -21.33
- Seiya Suzuki -29
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) lose (Cubs up 3). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 6). Giants win (Cubs up 8). The Giants need to go 16-1 to reach 90 wins. Reds win (the Reds can win 90 games max). The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 10 with 17 games to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers lost (Cubs down 6.5). We’ll count down the magic number against the Giants/Reds until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
Up Next: Wednesday night in Atlanta, the teams wrap the series and the season series. The Cubs are up 3-2 overall and the teams have split this week. Jameson Taillon will come off of the IL and make the start. Jameson (9-6, 4.15, 106.1 IP) has now had two IL stints, this most recent one after a minor groin strain. He was 2-0 with two runs allowed in 11 innings after coming off of his earlier, longer IL stint. His last start was August 24. He threw 62 pitches in that one, but he had been stretched out enough to throw 92 on August 19. I’d think he’s probably okay to throw 75ish pitches.
I don’t expect I have to introduce any of you to Chris Sale (5-4, 2.38, 102 IP). He’s finding his most dominant self a bit of late, with 3-1, 0.95 over his last seven starts (47.1 IP). This is one tough matchup. The only real issue he’s had this year is injuries. He has made two starts himself since coming off of the IL. He’s made 78 and 92 pitches and so I imagine he can get up over 100 pitches. Back in June, before the injury, the Braves pushed him past 100 pitches in three straight starts. He dominated the Cubs in his last start against them May 14 of last year. He allowed two hits, no walks and two hit batters over seven scoreless innings.
This is going to be a tough game to win. The Cubs should have a very full bullpen ahead of an off day Thursday. Sale is exactly the kind of good lefty starter that has given the Cubs real issues this year.
