The ACC Men’s Basketball tournament tips off in Charlotte on Tuesday, March 10th, but despite just four games remaining in the regular season there’s still a wide range of possibilities for Florida State’s seed. Such is life in a conference with a jumbled mess in the middle. But before we dive into what’s still possible, let’s eliminate what we know is not possible. To help me out, I used this fantastic scenario generator maintained annually by someone named “mred.” It’s truly a great way to kill
15 (or 45) minutes.
Seeds that have been eliminated
- The 1 & 2 seeds – The max number of league wins for FSU is 11 and and Duke and UVA both already have 12+. They cannot be caught by the ‘Noles.
- “Seeds 16-18” – Technically, these are not seeds, as only 15 of the 18 teams make it to Charlotte. In January, when FSU stood at 0-5 in ACC play, Coach Loucks made it quite clear that this team’s goal was to be among those 15 teams in Charlotte, calling it “an embarrassment” if FSU were to miss the ACCT. One month of playing at a top 25 level has now made that an impossibility. Florida State is locked into an appearance in Charlotte. (*Avoiding 17 and 18 is easy to explain: Georgia Tech and Boston College only have two conference wins each, and therefore cannot reach seven. The math on avoiding 16th is a bit more cumbersome, but just trust me it works. Or, if you’d rather see me “show my work,” head to asterisk at the bottom of the article).
A double-bye is still possible…technically
Yes, you read that heading correctly. As improbable as it would be, Florida State can still finish as high as the three seed. Obviously this requires a very specific—and unlikely—set of circumstances, but with UNC’s win over Louisville last night, it remains a mathematical possibility.
Obviously, FSU would have to sweep their remaining four games against Miami, @GT, @Pitt, and then SMU on Senior Day. This would move them to 11-7. From there, if UNC, Clemson, Cal, and Miami also all finished tied at 11-7, Florida State would win the round-robin tiebreaker with a 4-1 record among the tied teams.
Want an even crazier outcome? If FSU, NC State, Cal, Louisville, Clemson, Miami, and UNC all finish 11-7, FSU earns the three seed based on that round-robin too, largely because FSU and UL didn’t play. (The order I typed those teams is the order of seeds, 3-9, in that scenario. Of course, achieving these 3-seed outcomes takes some highly unlikely outcomes to occur. Things like Cal winning out, Notre Dame beating NC State, Va Tech beating UNC in Chapel Hill, and Syracuse beating Louisville. In other words, we’d need some Lloyd Christmas type of luck here.
Strangely enough after the UNC win over UL, I couldn’t find a scenario where FSU finishes 4th. The tiebreakers just don’t seem to workout that way. However, I didn’t test every possibility of every game outcome, so perhaps a community member can discover one and post it in the comments?
Finishing 4-0 does not assure a top 4 finish
While a double-bye is possible if FSU extends their winning streak to seven, most of the scenarios would give FSU either the 5 or 6 seed. For example, if you just picked all teams ranked higher on KenPom to win, with the exception of splitting SMU’s California swing, FSU ends up the 6 seed.
And candidly, the 6 seed isn’t a bad place to be. You avoid Duke until the Finals, still get a bye, and your first game is against the winner between the 11 and 14 seed (in that specific example it’s Virginia Tech and Syracuse). Win that first game and FSU would play the 3 seed in the quarterfinals, which in this example was NC State.
What happens if FSU finishes 3-1?
This seems to be the result most fans I talk with feel might happen. But the reality is, how FSU gets to 3-1 makes a big difference.
Beating Miami gives FSU a season sweep and the tiebreaker. Plus the 2—0 record becomes quite handy in all those round-robin tiebreakers. However, because Miami already has 10 wins, and they face Boston College at home, it’s unlikely that FSU and Miami finish tied if the ‘Noles finish 3-1.
SMU (8-6), on the other hand, is very possible to finish with the same record as FSU. The Mustangs close the season with the California duo on the road, Miami in Dallas, and then FSU in Tally. That screams 2-2 finish, which would give them a 10-8 league record. Here’s the problem: SMU already beat FSU. So if FSU drops the regular season finale, SMU has the sweep and the tiebreaker. If FSU is victorious on Senior Day, the teams split and the tiebreaker will depend on if any other team shares the same record. If not, it will be decided by record against opponents at the top of the standings, descending down until it’s broken. SMU beat UNC and UL, two teams likely to be in the top 4 or 5 seeds, so they are likely to win a two-team tiebreak against FSU even if the team’s split.
But here’s where the universe plays a trick. In most scenarios where FSU finishes 3-1, but loses the tiebreaker to SMU, the ‘Noles finish in the 10 seed, while the Mustangs grab the 9 seed. SMU’s reward for winning the tiebreaker is a bye…but a quarterfinal date with Duke.
The highest FSU can finish if they finish 3-1 (that I’ve been able to find) is the 7 seed. This would be a fantastic outcome, as you get both the bye and to avoid Duke. But it requires Clemson losing all three of their remaining games, which means losing to Georgia Tech on Senior Day. Seems unlikely, but I suppose if there is a team out there that could “Clemson,” Clemson would be a good bet.
Bye still possible with 2-2 finish
If Florida State wraps up Loucks’ first regular season as head coach with a 9-9 record, a first round bye is definitely still on the table. In fact, the 9 seed would be the most likely scenario. (The 8 seed is also possible, but requires UL losing out. But what’s the difference between 8 and 9 anyway).
FSU could be the 10 seed if Wake Forest were to win out (would require beating UVA in Charlottesville), or even drop to the 11 seed if Virginia Tech won out (would require winning in both Chapel Hill and Charlottesville), but both scenarios are much less likely.
Some, who prefer a first round bye, might see that as a good thing. Whereas, if you prefer to avoid the best team the longest, this might be bad news.
I’m not going to do a full breakdown of what happens if FSU goes 1-3 or 0-4 to close out the regular season. At that point I’m not sure it would even matter. But anywhere from the 11 seed to the 15 seed is on the table.
Share your predictions and hopes in the comments
Are you a first round bye at all costs type? Or do you think avoiding Duke in hopes of staying alive longer and hoping for chaos happening around you is better?
What outcome feels most likely?
Can you find FSU landing in the mythical 4 seed?
*Here’s the math on FSU locking up a tournament spot:
- GT and BC only have two wins and cannot reach 7
- Pitt and ND both have three, so both in theory could reach 7 if they both won out.
- In order for Pitt to win out, they must beat Stanford.
- This means that Stanford would have to win their other three games in order to reach 8 wins, which is what they need in order to finish above FSU because FSU has the tiebreaker with Stanford if they finish with 7.
- In order for Stanford to win their remaining three games, they would need to beat Notre Dame—which means Notre Dame would have a maximum of 6 wins.
- Therefore, at least one of Pitt, ND, or Stanford will finish below FSU, meaning FSU cannot finish lower than 15th.
