As the Jacksonville Jaguars prepare to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11, we sat down with Michael Peterson of Bolts From The Blue to learn more about the opposing side.
Question 1: Is Justin Herbert
leading the NFL in pass attempts a good or bad thing for LA?
In past years, I’d say it’d be a bad thing because it more than likely means the Chargers have been playing from behind in just about every game. However, I think this year’s numbers are honestly due to offensive coordinator Greg Roman realizing he’s our best player and that his arm is how we maximize the chance of winning games. The run game hasn’t been bad by any means. They’re a top 10 group in the NFL. However, it’s been inconsistent enough behind the patchwork offensive that the coaching staff has decided the team will create leads via Herbert’s arm, then utilize the ground game to milk clocks and secure victories. It should also be noted that the Chargers’ quick game should be viewed as an extension of the ground game. Players like Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey allow the team to gain six to eight yards nearly at will thanks to their shiftiness in tight quarters.
Question 2: Just how much does the offense miss bookend tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt?
There are not truly enough words to describe how important those two tackles are to the health and protection of Justin Herbert. He’s on pace to be the most pressured and hit quarterback this season, and he’s been on pace to be hit more than Andrew Luck was within their first six seasons of their career. That’s not good!
Slater’s loss was somewhat mitigated by Joe Alt switching over to the left side while swing tackle Trey Pipkins took over the right side, and it helps that the latter has a decent amount of starting experience there already. Now that both are gone, you have some of the worst-performing tackles in the league protecting Herbert’s blindside. Austin Deculus is the worst-graded tackle out of 38 qualifying players by PFF and Pipkins isn’t much better.
Question 3: Jacksonville is also in a bad spot at OT — can the Chargers defense take advantage?
Yes, I believe they can if Jesse Minter can call as good a game as he did against the Steelers this past Sunday night. The Chargers sacked Aaron Rodgers three times and truly made him uncomfortable all game long. The trio of Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Odafe Oweh has been riding a beat of hot streak in recent games, and seeing someone like Walker Little at left tackle (36 pressures, eight sacks allowed) has got to be a tantalizing sight for them.
While the interior pass rush hasn’t been the greatest for the Chargers, guys like Teair Tart or Jamaree Caldwell could also have a day against right guard Patrick Mekari who has also been a bit leaky with pressures this season, although he’s let up just one sack, per PFF.
Question 4: Who’s an under-the-radar player or two that Jaguars fans should watch for on Sunday?
Rookie defensive tackle Jamaree Caldwell is a name to watch alongside rookie safety R.J. Mickens. Both players have done well this year when given an increase in workload. With veteran safeties Tony Jefferson and Elijah Molden recently dealing with injuries, Mickens has come in and picked off two passes. Caldwell can be a bit hot-and-cold, but his splashes as both a run stopper and pass rusher have given the Chargers some juice when he shows up. These guys aren’t world-beaters just yet, but they have managed to come through enough times that I believe you do have to think twice before attacking either one with a matchup you like.
Question 5: Do you expect the Chargers to cover as 3-point favorites, and do you like any bets/props?
I do like the Chargers to win this game by at least three points. I have them winning 24-20 in my personal prediction. As far as prop bets go, I think you should hammer Justin Herbert’s passing props. Whatever the yardage is, bet the over. I think his passing TDs is also set at 1.5 and I believe he gets over that. The Jaguars have a better run defense than pass defense and I think this will be a game where we see a lot of passes from LA.
Thanks to Michael for taking the time to answer our questions!
Let us know your thoughts on the matchup in the comments below!
