The oldest rivalry in the south will add another matchup to its history this Saturday as the Virginia Cavaliers (6-1, 3-0 ACC) head down Route 29 South to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (2-4, 0-2
ACC). When the ball kicks off at noon, it will mark the start of the 130th matchup between the two ACC schools. North Carolina has won the majority with 67 total wins and Virginia with 58, but the two schools are in wildly different head spaces entering this game.
Virginia will walk into Kenan Memorial as a two-possession favorite. According to FanDuel, the ‘Hoos are 10.5-point favorites, which is the same line that originally opened on Sunday morning. On paper, I see this is a pretty fair line. Virginia giving 10.5 points on the road means Vegas would have this around 13.5-14 on a neutral site, which is about right given how the two teams have performed thus far this season.
North Carolina’s defense is allowing shy of 29 points per game, where Virginia’s offense ranks in the top-10 in scoring offense in the country. On the flip side, Virginia’s defense ranks in the middle of the road on points allowed, yards allowed per game, but North Carolina’s offense has struggled. In fact, against the five FBS schools they have played this season, they have reached the 20-point mark only once and been held to 10 points or less in two of those five games.
Bill Belichick’s squad showed significant signs of life last week on the road against California, however. They lost in heartbreaking fashion after a late fumble in their own end zone on a pass and catch that would have given the Heels a lead with less than four minutes remaining. Instead, the play resulted in a touchback for the Golden Bears who went on to claim victory by a score of 21-18.
Still, it was a gutsy performance by a struggling team that has had more bad PR and distractions than any team in the country. A result like that can either bring a team closer, helping them realize they can compete with anyone anywhere, or completely dismantle them, with the wheels falling off even more than they already are for this team.
I think North Carolina shows up here and keeps this one fairly close. Virginia has not won a conference game on the road by double digits since week one of the 2019 season, when they defeated Pittsburgh at the then Heinz Field 30-14.
Virginia wins but fails to cover the 10.5 points. 30-23.
