For the last week, I’ve been working on a data analysis through AI to create a scoring rubric centered around the draft tendencies of Sean Payton and George Paton. It analyzed their last three shared drafts and undrafted classes, along with their two most recent drafts before joining forces with the Denver Broncos in 2023.
This wasn’t some five minute “Hey Grok, who are the Broncos going to draft this month” type prompt. I’ve spent more hours than I should have fine-tuning the LLM’s processes and
analysis metrics. Then worked through coverage gaps that I myself didn’t think of at first to ensure the best possible guesses on rankings here.
Over the coming days, I will assemble position group big boards dialed into the players that should be on the Broncos’ big board right now if they stick to their known tendencies over the seven draft classes and undrafted free agents analyzed last week. Then next week, I’ll try to put them all together into big boards for each round as we get ready for the main event in less than two weeks!
To start this week, I am running with running backs and tight ends. If you’ve been following this exercise with me over the last week, you’ll know I was using the running back position as my ‘test dummy’ position group and its probably in the best shape as a finished product at this point.
Note: Prospects scored against the empirically-derived Payton/Paton Fit Score (PPFS) rubric. Tier 1 (A, Bullseye: 85-100) and Tier 2 (B, Strong Fit: 70-84) prospects shown in full. Tier 3-4 listed at end of each section. All descriptions of prospects are AI generated as part of its reasoning and ranking.
Broncos Big Board: Running Backs
Roster Context: The room has 3 undersized change-of-pace backs (Harvey 5’8″/205, McLaughlin 5’8″/187, Badie) plus injury-risk Dobbins (ACL/Achilles/Lisfranc) and zero bruisers. The complementary gap is a between-the-tackles power back to pair with Harvey. Duplication: Harvey = Entrenched (age 23, R2).
Mike Washington Jr., Arkansas, RB, Projected Round: 3rd
A 6’1″/223-pound bruiser with class-best 4.33 speed and SEC production, Washington is the perfect antidote to Denver’s undersized backfield. His between-the-tackles physicality directly fills the power-back gap as Dobbins insurance and a Harvey complement—exactly the archetype Payton/Paton have never had on the roster. Senior Bowl attendee with a quiet-worker profile Paton loves. (Tier 1, PPFS ~89)
Kaytron Allen, Penn State, RB, Projected Round: 4th
A 4-year starter at 5’11″/216 with 4,000+ career yards (Penn State record), zero missed games, Senior Bowl validated, and proven blitz-pickup chops. Allen is the between-the-tackles workload back who can absorb 12-15 carries to keep Dobbins fresh without duplicating Harvey’s change-of-pace role. His durability and pass-protection fit Payton’s scheme demands for a three-down complement. (Tier 1, PPFS ~87)
Kaelon Black, Indiana, RB, Projected Round: 5th-6th
A 5’9″/211 muscled-up “Freaks List” alum with 4.45 speed and legitimate pass-pro tape. Despite undersized height, Black plays like a bruiser and fills the gap as a low-cost power complement to Harvey. His strength profile and willingness in protection match Payton’s preference for backs who earn trust on all three downs. (Tier 2, PPFS ~78)
Jam Miller, Alabama, RB, Projected Round: 6th-7th
A 5’10″/209 Alabama-trained back described as the “best worker on the team” with 4.42 speed and special teams value. His between-the-tackles build fills the complementary gap at Day-3 cost, and the Alabama pipeline aligns with Paton’s SEC preferences. A 2025 injury-driven production drop is the only thing keeping him out of Tier 1. (Tier 2, PPFS ~76)
Jonah Coleman, Washington, RB, Projected Round: 4th-5th
A 5’8″/220 Academic All-American with pass-pro value Payton loves. Despite height similarity to Harvey, Coleman’s college usage at Washington was as a between-the-tackles power back—a fundamentally different functional role. His 220 pounds, physical downhill running, and strong pass protection earn the +3 bruiser gap fit. Senior-year YPC decline and below-sweet-spot height keep him from Tier 1. (Tier 2, PPFS ~75)
Le’Veon Moss, Texas A&M, RB, Projected Round: 6th
A 5’11″/211 SEC downhill grinder with red-zone production and strong character who earns the +3 bruiser gap fit. A torn ACL (resolved/cleared, −5) and separate ankle issues (−3 moderate) add medical load to an already injury-fragile backfield, but the role-based fit as a physical complement to Harvey’s speed is clean. (Tier 2, PPFS ~73)
Nicholas Singleton, Penn State, RB, Projected Round: 5th
A 6’0″/219-pound back with home-run speed and kick-return value whose size fits the complementary gap. His frame addresses the power void, but tunnel-vision inside running, pass-protection issues, and Senior Bowl foot surgery (resolved/cleared, −5) push him down from the top of the tier. (Tier 2, PPFS ~72)
Emmett Johnson, Nebraska, RB, Projected Round: 3rd-4th
A 5’10″/205 All-American and Big Ten RB of the Year with 46 catches in 2025. Johnson’s college usage as a featured three-down zone-cut back is a fundamentally different role than Harvey’s change-of-pace lane. His All-American production floor and receiving chops make him credible Dobbins insurance at Day-2/3 cost, though the 205-pound frame limits the pure power-back ceiling the room ideally wants. (Tier 2, PPFS ~74)
Roman Hemby, Indiana, RB, Projected Round: 7th
A 6’0″/208 four-year Maryland/Indiana starter with 129 career catches and a low fumble rate. His tweener build is roster-neutral, and the receiving volume plus special teams value give Payton a useful chess piece without duplicating Harvey’s lane. Fits the reliable depth-back mold at minimal capital cost. (Tier 2, PPFS ~71)
Adam Randall, Clemson, RB, Projected Round: 7th-FA
A 6’3″/232 former wide receiver with 4.50 speed, kick-return experience, and Senior Bowl captain status. His unique big-body frame fills the +3 bruiser gap, and the ex-receiver hands give him a Payton-style third-down-plus-size profile that nobody else on the roster offers. A developmental conversion pick at the right capital level. (Tier 2, PPFS ~70)
Tier 3: Jadarian Price, Chip Trayanum, CJ Donaldson, J’Mari Taylor, Barika Kpeenu, Noah Whittington, Star Thomas
Tier 4: Jeremiyah Love, Seth McGowan, Demond Claiborne, Eli Heidenreich, Max Bredeson, Rahsul Faison, Jaydn Ott, Robert Henry Jr., Dean Connors, Desmond Reid, Cash Jones
Broncos Big Board: Tight Ends
Roster Context: Trautman (29, in-line blocker) + Engram (31, declining move-F) + projects (Adkins, Krull, Lohner). Nobody on the roster is both a plus blocker AND a plus receiver. The complementary gap is a true three-down “Y-plus” TE and a younger succession plan for Engram. Pure inline-only maulers duplicate Trautman + Adkins.
Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt, TE, Projected Round: 2nd-3rd
The Mackey Award winner and First-Team All-American with a captain’s leadership, 3.9% drop rate, and elite 4.51/45.5″ athleticism. A graceful seam/YAC threat with a relentless QB-convert worker profile. Stowers is a markedly younger, more dynamic Engram succession piece with room to grow into Y-plus blocking duties—exactly the three-down TE the Broncos lack. (Tier 1, PPFS ~90)
Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon, TE, Projected Round: 1st-2nd
A Vernon Davis-type mismatch with 4.39 speed, action-figure build, dogged blocker across Y/slot snaps, plus 488 career special teams snaps and “driven kid” scout reviews. Oregon pipeline (+3). The closest thing in the class to a true three-down Y-plus TE who directly fills the Broncos’ biggest tight end gap—a player who can both block and receive at a high level. (Tier 1, PPFS ~88)
Oscar Delp, Georgia, TE, Projected Round: 3rd
A three-year Kirby Smart starter alongside Brock Bowers, clean character, physical C-gap blocker with above-average speed who played through a foot fracture. Scouts say “better pro than college player” with Y-plus flashes. Directly fills the three-down Y-plus gap with the SEC bluechip pedigree Paton loves. His blocking physicality differentiates him from the Engram mold. (Tier 1, PPFS ~86)
Sam Roush, Stanford, TE, Projected Round: 3rd-4th
A three-year Y starter with a 3.8 GPA in STEM, combine freak who ran every drill, 529 special teams snaps, and rugby-bred toughness. His 49 catches for 545 yards give soft Y-plus upside in a complementary blocker-plus lane. The character and ST investment match the Payton/Paton mold perfectly for a Day-2/3 pick. (Tier 2, PPFS ~80)
Jack Endries, Texas, TE, Projected Round: 4th-5th
A former Cal walk-on with a 0.9% drop rate over his last 28 starts, three-year durable starter, sound blocker with F/inline versatility and a modest Y-plus foundation. An Engram succession candidate who is markedly younger (22) and steadier than the current joker-TE room. Walk-on arc is a strong Payton/Paton character marker. (Tier 2, PPFS ~78)
Justin Joly, NC State, TE, Projected Round: 3rd-4th
A Jonnu Smith-mold move-F who bulked from 190 to 241 pounds with 71.4% contested-catch rate and a steady-worker profile. He fills the move-F succession lane for the declining Engram, though he doesn’t address the core three-down Y-plus need. His receiving dynamism and willingness to block create a Payton-style chess piece. (Tier 2, PPFS ~77)
Will Kacmarek, Ohio State, TE, Projected Round: 4th
A pure Y-plus candidate with zero drops on 27 targets over two Ohio State seasons, Senior Bowl validated, described as a “culture changer.” His zero-drop receiving floor gives Y-plus ceiling to complement Trautman rather than duplicate him. Fits the blocker-who-can-catch developmental lane at mid-round cost. (Tier 2, PPFS ~76)
Riley Nowakowski, Indiana, TE, Projected Round: 5th
Indiana’s national title-run utility H-back, former walk-on LB, 2x captain (Wisconsin + Indiana), zero drops in his final 2 years, Academic All-Big Ten. Doesn’t fill Y-plus but is the exact Payton FB/H-back complement to Trautman/Adkins with succession insurance and a near-maximum 25-point character score. (Tier 2, PPFS ~75)
Khalil Dinkins, Penn State, TE, Projected Round: 6th-7th
An explosive Y blocker with fluid pass-catching flashes, NFL legacy (father Darnell, 8-year pro), and seven touchdowns on 37 catches. His Y-plus upside combined with a complementary blocker-first fit gives him receiving room to grow. A Day-3 developmental option with the pedigree and traits the duo targets in the late rounds. (Tier 2, PPFS ~74)
Max Klare, Ohio State, TE, Projected Round: 2nd-3rd
A Dalton Kincaid-style move-F with Big Ten All-Conference honors at two schools, crisp routes, and a competitive blocker. He fills the Engram-lane as a move-F but isn’t markedly younger or more dynamic than Engram—creating a modest duplication discount. His receiving talent is real but he doesn’t address the core Y-plus gap. (Tier 2, PPFS ~73)
Dae’Quan Wright, Ole Miss, TE, Projected Round: 5th-6th
A Second-Team All-SEC joker with 16.3 YPC and 12 catches of 20+ yards who gutted through a shoulder injury with an improving blocking profile. An Engram successor with splash upside who is less duplicative because Engram’s decline makes succession legitimate rather than wasteful. (Tier 2, PPFS ~72)
Carsen Ryan, BYU, TE, Projected Round: 5th-6th
An inline Y with “off-the-charts toughness,” strong hands, physical blocker, and an improving receiver described as an NFL-scout darling. A softer Y-plus fit complementing Trautman as a younger ascending option. His workmanlike profile and blocking-first approach match the dirty-work TE archetype Payton has valued since the Saints era. (Tier 2, PPFS ~71)
Tier 3: Nate Boerkircher, Marlin Klein, Matthew Hibner, Dallen Bentley, Josh Cuevas, Jaren Kanak, Joe Royer, Hayden Large, Tanner Koziol, DJ Rogers
Tier 4: Eli Raridon, Lake McRee, Michael Trigg, RJ Maryland, Bauer Sharp, John Michael Gyllenborg, Lance Mason, Seydou Traore, Miles Kitselman, Dan Villari, Evan Svoboda
The important metric from this exercise is the PPFS score as those are the players that hit the higher scores on the rubric centered around the George Paton and Sean Payton “fit”.
Also, this has been a fun project for me, but I am sure there will be some disagreement here. AI is by no means flawless — quite the opposite actually — so I am more than happy to have this post serve as the great debate. If the Broncos go RB or TE during the draft, it would not surprise me at all if they target someone from the tier 1 or tier 2 lists.
