While plenty of ranked favorites fell last weekend, the Michigan Wolverines grinded out another Big Ten West win, with attention now turning to the Pac-12. The USC Trojans suffered their first defeat before
going on bye, but are still a top-15 team per SP+ (higher than Michigan), featuring what that metric considers the nation’s top offense.
As a result, analytics narrowly favor the Trojans when the teams meet in Los Angeles on Saturday. Traveling west has historically been a trouble for this program, including last season’s loss in Seattle, but stylistically the Wolverines might feel good about their chances. This is probably the biggest test left on the schedule before The Game for Sherrone Moore’s squad, who is suddenly becoming a Big Ten contender.
No. 15 Michigan (4-1, 2-0) at Southern California (4-1, 2-1)
Date & Time: Saturday, Oct. 11, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: LA Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
TV/Streaming: NBC
Last season’s battle in Ann Arbor is exactly why the Big Ten wanted to add USC to the conference. Long touchdown runs by Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards put Michigan ahead, but the visitors came all the way back thanks to some terrible pass defense. However, the Wolverines executed their two-minute offense perfectly…by having Mullings run down the field, securing the 27-24 victory in the final minute. That run will always be legendary, but the pick-six by Will Johnson was also an incredible moment:
Offense: Fight on
USC ranks 49th in defensive SP+, giving up 27.3 points (56th) and 398.7 yards (61st) against Power Four opposition. While the majority of this damage came through the air, the run defense has not been spectacular either, giving the Wolverines some options when it comes to attacking this one. Given Bryce Underwood’s solid outing last week and the fact this will be his third tough road test already, there is no reason to fear throwing the ball.
This secondary just got torn up by Illinois and could be without one or both of Kamari Ramsey and Alex Graham, in addition to Prophet Brown, who has not played this season. Underwood just threw for 67.9% and 9.64 YPA against a similarly depleted Wisconsin secondary, so do not be surprised to see him throw with confidence and lean on Donaven McCulley (or Andrew Marsh?!) again.
Still, it is hard to not think back to what Mullings did last season against USC and imagine Justice Haynes adding to the highlight reel on Saturday. Against Wisconsin it was yet another productive game with an explosive run, as the “nation’s top run defense” surrendered 161 yards on 28 carries to Haynes and Jordan Marshall. Now this duo gets a defense that could not really stop a fairly nondescript Illini rushing attack.
Put it all together and the Wolverines should be able to score points. Yes, the Trojans’ pass rush is strong and the Michigan receivers keep struggling with drops, but on all accounts the matchup on this side of the ball favors the visitors. It will be tough if USC pulls ahead early, as the offense is not necessarily built for big comebacks, but Underwood should be able to keep his squad in the game if asked to do so.
Defense: Rightful fear
This is where things get uncomfortable. Everyone remembers Adventures with Wink Martindale (TM) last time these teams met, and early returns this season indicate those fears should be relevant again. SP+ has the Trojans as the very offense in the country right now, and while Michigan defenses of the past have fared better than expected against these sorts of threats, I am not sure that confidence is justified here.
It all starts with quarterback Jayden Maiava, who is everything USC hoped he would be after transferring from UNLV two offseasons ago. His top target, Makai Lemon, has been balling out as well, and the early passing numbers have been quite impressive to begin this season:
Maiava has been nothing but impressive so far, completing 70.5% of his passes for 11.4 YPA with 11 touchdowns and just one pick (last game against Illinois). Against Power Four opposition, Maiava is top 20 in passer rating, and while the Michigan defense will be his toughest test yet, the same is going to be said about facing him.
The Trojans’ ground game has been similarly productive, with Waymond Jordan second to only Haynes in the Big Ten with 107.4 YPG. Despite Wisconsin’s opening drive, the Wolverines still seem more susceptible through the air, which is how I imagine USC will lean. Maiava is more Dylan Raiola than John Mateer, though both obviously had plenty of success against Michigan. There is no way to completely shut down this passing attack, but forcing Maiava to drive the field and not leave receivers literally wide open would be helpful.
Self control
I really think Michigan (read: Martindale) controls its own destiny in this one. It is such lazy analysis to say “don’t blitz on every down” but there are not many gameplans that reach 2018 Ohio State levels of failure, so bringing up last season’s debacle is warranted. Rod Moore getting healthy is a big boost, and the younger defensive backs are definitely better than they were 13 months ago, but remember that Lincoln Riley has had two weeks to prepare for this one. I cannot imagine a world where Lemon does not find the end zone at least once.
This does not necessarily need to be a shootout if the Wolverines can play a little bend-don’t-break on defense, but they will still need to put up a healthy number of points. An average Haynes game would go a long way, and the natural progression of Underwood feels promising, even though his last road performance was more modest. This game is a coin flip but could easily end up a multiple-score victory for either side, with the biggest variable being Michigan’s approach against Maiava.
