The New England Patriots have played two games versus NFC South teams so far, winning both by a combined score of 67-32. In order to make it 3-0 against the division, they will have to beat the Atlanta
Falcons on Sunday.
An up-and-down team so far this season, the Falcons have played some good football even though inconsistency has hurt them. Nonetheless, even at 3-4 they are no pushovers as a look at their core info shows.
Falcons key stats
Playing in a division that has had its issues in the past few years, the Falcons seemed like a potential candidate to sneak into the playoffs as a wild card team before the season. While that might still happen, the current 11 seed in the NFC has some work to do as a look at the stats shows.
Record: 3-4 (3rd NFC South)
Scoring differential: -34 (22nd)
Turnover differential: +2 (t-11th)
Offense: 17.1 points/game (28th), 342.7 yards/game (14th), 7 giveaways (t-11th), -0.030 EPA/play (26th), 0.005 EPA/dropback (23rd), -0.082 EPA/run (20th)
Defense: 22.0 points/game (13th), 275.6 yards/game (2nd), 9 takeaways (t-12th), 0.004 EPA/play (15th), 0.025 EPA/dropback (12th), -0.023 EPA/run (24th)
The Falcons are moving the ball relatively well and are not turning the ball over at a worrying rate, so why are they only ranked 28th in points per game (17.1) and points per drive (1.62)? Part of it has to do with their average starting field position being the worst in football at their own 27.8-yard line, but they also cannot get out of their own way once in the red zone: their 45% success rate is ranked just 29th in the league.
For comparison, their defense has been quite solid — with the yards per game number standing out. Once again, however, the red area is an issue: Atlanta is ranked 29th on that side of the ball as well (68.8%). The fact that they are still 13th in scoring still speaks for itself and the quality the rebuilt unit possesses on that side of the ball.
Falcons 2025 season
Atlanta’s season so far has been a rollercoaster. The team started out alternating wins and losses, heading into its Week 5 bye with a 2-2 record. Since then, they managed to beat the high-flying Buffalo Bills — a feat also accomplished by the Patriots one week earlier — before losses to the 49ers and Dolphins dropped them to 3-4.
Week 1: 23-20 loss vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)
Week 2: 22-6 win at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)
Week 3: 30-0 loss at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Week 4: 34-27 win vs. Washington Commanders (2-2)
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: 24-14 win vs. Buffalo Bills (3-2)
Week 7: 20-10 loss at San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
Week 8: 34-10 loss vs. Miami Dolphins (3-4)
There is a difference between the Falcons’ first six games and their most recent one: their 24-point loss to the Dolphins saw them start Kirk Cousins at quarterback over regular QB1 Michael Penix Jr. (and also miss WR1 Drake London). That change is not the only reason why Atlanta lost, but it did contribute to the team’s issues against what is one of the worst teams in football at the moment.
Falcons active roster
Roster up-to-date as of Nov. 1, 5 a.m. ET | *denotes nominal starter
Quarterback (2): Michael Penix Jr.* (9), Kirk Cousins (18)
Running back (3): Bijan Robinson* (7), Tyler Allgeier (25), Nathan Carter (38)
Wide receiver (6): Drake London* (5), Darnell Mooney* (1), David Sills V (87), Casey Washington (82), KhaDarel Hodge (4), Jamal Agnew (14 | KR/PR)
Tight end (4): Kyle Pitts Sr.* (8), Charlie Woerner* (89), Teagan Quitoriano (85), Feleipe Franks (84)
Offensive tackle (4): Jake Matthews* (70 | LT), Elijah Wilkinson* (71 | RT), Michael Jerrell (72), Jack Nelson (69)
Interior offensive line (5): Matthew Bergeron* (65 | LG), Ryan Neuzil* (64 | C), Chris Lindstrom* (63 | RG), Jovaughn Gwyn (52), Kyle Hinton (68)
Interior defensive line (7): David Onyemata* (90), Ruke Orhorhoro* (98), Zach Harrison (96), Brandon Dorlus (54), Sam Roberts (99), LaCale London (94), Ta’Quon Graham (95)
Defensive edge (5): Leonard Floyd* (56), Jalon Walker* (11), James Pearce Jr. (27), Arnold Ebiketie (17), DeAngelo Malone (51)
Linebacker (4): Kaden Elliss* (55), J.D. Bertrand* (40), Ronnie Harrison (36), Josh Woods (42)
Cornerback (6): A.J. Terrell Jr.* (24), Mike Hughes* (21), Dee Alford* (20), Billy Bowman Jr. (33), Mike Ford Jr. (28), Natrone Brooks (35)
Safety (4): Jessie Bates III* (3), Xavier Watts* (31), DeMarocco Hellams (23), Jordan Fuller (29)
Specialists (3): Parker Romo (39 | K), Bradley Pinion (13 | P/H), Liam McCullough (49 | LS)
Even though he missed last week’s game with a knee injury, Michael Penix Jr. is expected to return to the starting lineup on Sunday. A first-round draft pick by the Falcons last year, he has not enjoyed quite the same success as the quarterback picked five spots before him, Drake Maye.
In six games this season, he has completed 119 of 195 passes (61%) for 1,409 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He is ranked 21st in the NFL in expected points added per play (0.056) and just 31st in completion percentage over expectation (-5.0); for comparison, Maye is ranked third (0.330) and first (12.3) in those two respective categories.
When it comes to Penix Jr’s supporting cast, three names stand out: Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. A true dual-threat at the running back position, Robinson is one of the top players at his position and currently ranked third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage (962). London, meanwhile, leads the team in targets (63), receiving yards (469) and receiving touchdowns (2), whereas Pitts is tops on the list in receptions (39).
Defensively, the Falcons are one of the most aggressive teams in football both in terms of blitz rate (43.5%) and pressure rate (36.0%). A large part of it is three offseason additions meant to bolster what was one of the least effective pass rushes in football in 2024: veteran free agent Leonard Floyd as well as first-round draft picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.
They are not the only sources of pressure, though. The team’s leader in quarterback pressures is actually linebacker Kaden Elliss, the brother of New England LB Christian Elliss, who 17 to his name. Also high on that list is the team’s leader in sacks, Zach Harrison, who will miss the game against the Patriots because of a knee injury.
Behind the Falcons’ aggressive front, the team is relying on a multiple coverage scheme that is ranked first in the league in single-high coverage rate (64.0%) and ninth in man-to-man rate (45.3%), according to FTN Fantasy.
Falcons reserves
Practice squad (16): QB Easton Stick (12), RB Carlos Washington Jr. (26), WR Chris Blair (19), WR Dylan Drummond (81), WR Nick Nash (80), WR Deven Thompkins (83), TE Joshua Simon (47), OT Raiqwon O’Neal (75), OT Carter Warren (66), OL Joshua Gray (67), DT Kentavius Street (93), ED Khalid Kareem (2), CB Cobee Bryant (37), CB Keith Taylor (32), CB A.J.Woods (30), K Ben Sauls (41)
Practice squad exempt (1): K Lenny Krieg
Practice squad IR (1): OT Ryan Hayes
IR (7): QB Emory Jones, OT Kaleb McGary, OT Storm Norton (IR-R), OT Tyrone Wheatley Jr, ED Bralen Trice, LB Divine Deablo, CB Clark Phillips III
PUP (1): LB Troy Andersen
NFI (1): LB Malik Verdon
The Falcons’ reserve lists feature one of the team’s most important players: linebacker Divine Deablo, who suffered a broken arm against the 49ers in Week 7. The offseason pickup was a leader for the team on the defensive side of the ball, and somebody who helped get the entire unit on the same page — a skill that will be missed against an offense led by Drake Maye and coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Falcons coaching staff
Head coach: Raheem Morris
Coordinators: Zac Robinson (OC), Jeff Ulbrich (DC), Marquice Williams (SC)
The Falcons opted to hire Raheem Morris instead of Bill Belichick last season and have since received an 11-13 record since, including 3-4 this season. Much like Belichick’s former team, though, Atlanta also is in a state of rebuild. Even though it seems to be going slower than the Patriots’, there is no indication that the organization is not bought into Morris’ vision for the team and the job he has done so far.
