The Milwaukee Brewers might’ve only incurred some psychic damage in losing 2 out of 3 to one of the worst teams to ever wear “San Francisco” (they’re still 6 games up in the NL Central), but the Giants did expose how soft their rotation is after Jacob Misiorowski, which might compel them to go all in and acquire Tarik Skubal. The Padres have won five in a row and are now just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card, but from May 1st through six games ago, they were 31-42 and looked to be sellers. With the trade
deadline set for Monday afternoon, could the Giants knock their division rivals back into disarray?
The Giants will likely be sellers all their own, but you can imagine them holding out through most of this series to get the best deal, by which time they might’ve already sent San Diego back to .500 by winning the first two games of this series. Or, this is the Padres’ time now and they’re just going to roll through the Bay Area with no problem.
This quick turnaround has been led by Ty France (211 wRC+ in last 12 games), Fernando Tatis Jr. (196), Jackson Merrill (195), and Luis Rengifo (190) — who I rather stupidly misread as having been traded from the Padres to the Brewers and not t’other way around. Manny Machado has also done well (164 wRC+) with 4 homers and a line of .306/.375/.592. Even Jake Cronenworth has come around (115). So, the Padres’ lineup has finally showed up this season rather than aged out.
Their pitching has held the line, too, which is remarkable considering what’s holding together the rotation. Their bullpen is absolutely dominant. Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez, and Wandy Peralta have all been exceptional and the corps leads the sport in value (+5.6 fWAR); but, after Michael King, they’ve got Walker Buehler, Randy Vasquez, Griffin Canning, and German Marquez in their rotation. It’s the #25 rotation in baseball (4.2 fWAR) with an ERA (4.66) that’s down around some non-playoff teams (the Royals — 4.51, Angels — 4.67, Athletics — 5.14, Astros — 5.17, and Rockies — 6.03). So, in theory, the Giants’ lineup should be able to feast a bit and hope to build up enough of a lead to outlast their own bullpen ahead of facing the Padres’ outs-getters.
These post-All-Star break Giants have been a little quiet. Willy Adames, Bryce Eldridge, and Rafael Devers have each hit 3 home runs, but only Adames has managed to produce above the league average (113). Their 58 runs scored is 8th-best in the sport, but… you know… they scored 16 runs yesterday. Have they really had the 8th-best lineup in the sport since the break? No.
But this is the part of the season where defying expectations can really pack a wallop. The Padres are feeling themselves right now, and splitting a 4-gamer or outright losing a series to a team that might not even be good against minor league teams might send a fragile team like San Diego spiraling. Or not. It’s baseball, after all. The Giants are somehow 3-3 against the Padres so far this season, but San Diego has won 5 of the 6 season series this decade (2021 being the exception). Because “It’s baseball!” there’s always the chance the Giants win the season series against the Padres but the Padres still manage to make it to the postseason. But there hasn’t been a lot of “It’s baseball!” luck for the Giants this season, except for maybe that Milwaukee series. You can bet on a repeat of that happening this weekend, but it seems like a shakier proposition.
The Giants have made the Padres doubt everything many times before. Ending their winning streak and splitting or taking the series would almost certainly get in their heads. The Giants are a really bad team that has no business being on the same field with most of the league. If the Padres don’t sweep, they’d have to wonder whether or not they belong on the field, too.
This is likely the final series for some players on the current roster. It feels like we’ve been preparing to say goodbye to Luis Arraez and Robbie Ray for six weeks or so. Indeed, Ray’s spot in the rotation should be first up in the series, but the Giants have four TBDs listed as their pitching probables. Susan Slusser suggests that Heliot Ramos could be following them out the door, too. The only true shocker would be if any team takes a flyer on one of the radioactive relievers Buster and Zack foisted on the team.
Series Overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (46-62) vs. San Diego Padres (55-53)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Thursday at 6:40pm PT, Friday at 6:45pm PT, Saturday at 5:40pm PT, Sunday at 1:10pm PT
National broadcasts: Apple TV (Friday)
Projected starters
Thursday: TBD vs. JP Sears (LHP 3-3, 3.86 ERA)
Friday: TBD vs. TBD
Saturday: TBD vs. Walker Buehler (RHP 6-5, 5.13 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. Michael King (RHP 6-7, 3.38 ERA)
Players to watch
JP Sears: He was a Giants killer first with the A’s and then with the Padres, who acquired him in the Mason Miller trade. The Giants have gotten to him exactly once, when he was with the A’s — a 4-run job back in May 2025. Otherwise, he’s 3-1 with a 1.76 ERA in 5 starts against them. 30.2 IP 28 K 7 BB 6 runs. The Giants have just a .696 OPS against LHP this season (.738 vs. RHP).
Jung Hoo Lee: He’s 12-for-40 out of the break with a homer, 2 doubles, and a triple and just 1 walk against strikeouts. He’s just 4-for-23 (.174) against the Padres this season.
Prediction time
The Giants will split this series… somehow. I guess the real “going out on a limb” is predicting whether or not Robbie Ray pitches in this series. I have felt that the Giants have been an impossibly stupid team all season long, so if he were to pitch, it wouldn’t be a surprise. But even in this case, I will predict that he’s already thrown his last pitch for the orange and black.
