Heading into this Week 2 showdown, the vibes are sky-high, and the fanbase has plenty of hope. For me, who prefers to live in the comfort of truth and reality rather than emotion and pandemonium, it’s legitimately tough to properly contextualize this Jets season so far. Luckily for us, my colleague addressed that very issue for all of us, and I’m at peace with my hopefulness for this Sunday!
As we discussed before Week 1, this isn’t meant to be a prediction. It’s not necessarily “three keys” to the
game. It’s an approach to looking at the game outside the mainstream narrative, and I guarantee you’ll learn at least one stat you’ve never seen before.
The 0-1 Green Bay Packers will be traveling to MetLife Stadium for the home opener against the 1-0 New York Jets. This is super exciting; not only are the Jets undefeated, but the way they beat down the Titans last week gives all of us tangible hope that the dog days may finally be over. A quick glance at accuweather.com shows lots of rain and wind on the horizon for the game, which will surely play a role in this game.
Can the Green Bay Packers, one of the league’s most prestigious organizations led by one of the game’s most respected coaches, bounce back after an embarrassing second-half collapse last week? Are the Jets, the perennial “butt of the joke” in professional sports, finally ready to become relevant? Was the shellacking of the Titans a foreshadowing, or a random outlier? Let’s take a look:
What’s Love Got to Do With It?
Everyone is quick to point out that Jordan Love was sacked four times in Week 1 and use that as the basis for the “Swiss cheese offensive line” argument, but no one adds the caveat that his 42 passing attempts were the second-most in the NFL last week. Love was sacked on less than 10% of his dropbacks, which is much more respectable than, say, Malik Willis, who was also sacked four times but only had 27 dropbacks (15.6% sack percentage, 2nd most in the league).
Still, Matt LaFleur’s signal caller can still succumb to pressure and make poor decisions. Only one team in the NFL blitzed more than 50% of the time last week: Brian Flores’s Minnesota Vikings, who blitzed the Packers on 33(!) of those 42 dropbacks (71.7% blitz percentage). We saw both the pros and cons of such a blitz-heavy attack: Love had two turnovers and was sacked several times, but he also had a few explosive plays that gave him the second-most yards of any QB and the league’s longest play so far (81 yards).
I’d imagine and hope Aaron Glenn shows more restraint than Flores (30.8% blitz percentage) and is more strategic about deploying blitzes. If Week 1 is any indication, we should all feel great about the chances of this happening. The Jets were a top-3 team in the NFL in YAC (yards after catch) allowed and missed tackles, meaning that regardless of whether they blitzed, a Jet was still in the area to make a sound tackle and prevent extra yardage.
With a rushing attack that totaled only 66 yards on 21 carries, the Packers are probably expecting to throw a lot of passes again, even with the rain. Step 1 for the Jets is to continue their run-stuffing ways (they allowed only 68 yards last week), and from there it will be a chess match between LaFleur and Glenn on when to dial up pressure for Love without leaving his secondary vulnerable.
Luckily for us, this is a coaching matchup that used to happen multiple times per year when Glenn was the DC in Detroit. Glenn and his new personnel should have an easier time preparing for generally the same Packers running the same offense than the Packers would have preparing for an entirely new group in NY executing his system from Detroit.
Is the Safety on?
One of the few pieces of bad news from last Sunday was the loss of All-Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick, who fell to a groin injury early in the game. As a result, Andre Cisco and Dane Belton played more snaps, and both did well with the additional game plan. Now, with a full week of game planning against them and much more offensive talent than the Titans, will the Packers flip the script on this unit?
Christian Watson has been one of the league’s most prolific deep-threat WRs from day one, and he currently has the longest touchdown of the season with 81 yards. Next Gen Stats lists his top speed during that run at 21.09 MPH, the third-fastest speed of a ball carrier this season so far. His combination of size and speed is perfect for his role, and he continues to punish teams over the top of the defense.
Matthew Golden seems to be finding his footing in the offense, and the Packers also acquired TE Jonnu Smith in the offseason. Smith is another dynamic blend of size and speed who scored a touchdown against the Jets for the Steelers in that Week 1 contest last year. The year before that, he was a Dolphin, and he scored in each game he played against the Jets, including a game-winner in OT.
All of these players are certainly more dangerous than Gunnar Helm, Wan’Dale Robinson, and a Carnell Tate playing in his first-ever game. Watson, Golden, and Smith each had at least one 40+ yard reception last week, and I outlined Jonnu’s recent history against the Jets. He’s not even TE1; Tucker Kraft (21.5 yards per reception) will be out there too.
I also want to stress that this is a matter of air yards – Jordan Love had the second-most air yards per attempt in Week 1 despite having the fourth-fewest seconds to throw (2.56). The Vikings tied the Jets for the league’s second-fewest missed tackles last week, so this wasn’t a matter of guys running loose after a short screen. This was Matt LaFleur getting guys open downfield and Love having the arm to drive it downfield consistently against a talented (albeit outnumbered) Vikings secondary.
Neither Cisco nor Belton were particularly spectacular in pass coverage last year, and we can be certain they will be tested. The rain should help minimize these opportunities, since throwing slick balls 30+ yards in the pouring rain isn’t ideal, but I still expect them to be aggressive. Cisco had seven picks 2022-2023, and Belton has had at least one interception in each of his four previous NFL seasons, so maybe the actual rain can create an opportunity to end the metaphorical drought (of interceptions).
D’Angelo Ponds is set to make his debut this week, and I’m sure the Jets will welcome as much assistance in the secondary as possible. It will take a whole-team effort, but I’m mostly talking about the safeties, since they’re the last line of defense against an offense that specializes in deep balls downfield.
Let’s Kick It
I was pleasantly surprised to see Jason Sanders start the season 2/2 with extra points and 3/4 with field goals, including two makes from 50+. We were all done with him, and it looked like the Jets’ coaches were too, until he was named the starter a few days before the season opener. I took that as a roll of the dice and hoped that the team would go for it on 4th and keep Sanders’s kicks inside the 40. Yes, his one miss was absolutely atrocious, but 11 points and 83% total accuracy is a solid day at the office! He alone outscored the Titans.
As we all know, rainy games mean a lot of rushing attempts, but they usually mean a lot of kicks as well. Will Sanders get to keep his job through this storm?
The last rainy game at MetLife I can clearly remember was the 2024 Week 4 showdown with the Broncos, which ended in heartbreaking fashion for Jets fans. If you ask me, that game completely turned the season upside down. Rodgers, coming off two straight wins and four touchdowns, couldn’t drive the team downfield for a touchdown in the rain. Instead, Greg Zuerlein was tasked with being the team’s only scorer, which he did with three field goals.
After Broncos kicker Will Lutz missed a field goal, 50-yard field goal, the opportunity for the Jets to win the game was right there. Zuerlein, previously 3/3 that day, lined up for the 50-yard attempt with the chance to extend the winning streak to three. He instead missed, just like Lutz did, and the rest is history.
I seem to be seeing a lot of praise around Jets nation for a QB who was almost never pressured and yet scored zero touchdowns. The Packers forced an interception on the opening throw of the drive, ended with three sacks, and allowed 3.1 yards per carry last game. The defense is by no means Swiss cheese, and Geno will face another test that may not include last week’s efficient rushing attack.
Smart money says both teams will attempt multiple FGs, and in a game where touchdowns should be scarce, every kick’s importance is magnified even more. Of course, Geno could score a touchdown. Breece and/or Braelon could find holes that Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason couldn’t last week. The most likely scenario, even if a touchdown or two is scored, is Jason Sanders kicking important kicks this Sunday. Let’s pray they sail through the uprights. Let’s go Jets
