Labor Day steals fast upon us, and in baseball language, this means we’re closing in on the point in the season when a team’s record and standings are a truer indicator of underlying value than vague talk about “parts” and “clubhouse vibes” and “potential.” It’s been a difficult year for the Orioles by most measures—a losing record (65-69), injuries hitting both the rotation and the bullpen, and a trade deadline that saw several key pieces sent off. Even so, with roughly a month remaining in the season,
the Orioles remain within range in a tight AL Wild Card race: the Yankees and Red Sox hold the top two spots, while the Cleveland Guardians hold the third, with Baltimore, Texas, and a few others a handful of games away.
The Orioles have us at least thinking about believing again. But is hope warranted? There is good news and bad news here.
One hopeful piece is the offense: the lineup has started to heat up at just the same time Cleveland has to be caught. The Orioles’ offense has been a drag all year —while they’ve hit well for power, their .237 team batting average is one of the worst in the league. But you wouldn’t know it of late. The batting average is up by 20 points, and their latest series against the Cardinals was one of their most prolific to date. The Birds put up 13 runs on Tuesday, eight more on Wednesday, and five more in Thursday’s loss. Several players are leading the charge. Pete Alonso has nine homers in his last 16 games. Coby Mayo has been part of the resurgence too—he’s tied Matt Olson for the MLB lead with 14 homers against lefties—and Christian Encarnacion-Strand is suddenly OPS’ing over .800 and racking up clutch hits right and left. Dylan Beavers and Jackson Holliday are finding it, too. Eight different O’s hitters are now carrying a 100-plus wRC+.
The trouble is, the offensive resurgence is coinciding with a stretch where the pitching is starting to flag. The bullpen is one culprit, if not a surprise one. This is a collection of nobodies, to put it affectionately, especially given the injuries. Keegan Akin was lost to elbow pain in July and is done for the year. Ryan Helsley has been on the injured list since July 3 with UCL inflammation—his second elbow-related IL stint of the season—and while he’s avoided surgery, there’s no clear return date. Félix Bautista has been on the shelf with elbow troubles for over a year. And selling off Tyler Wells at the trade deadline, the closest thing the O’s had to a closer with Helsley on the shelf, certainly wasn’t a move designed to help win close games now. Recently calls to the ‘pen have proven suspect: manager Craig Albernaz still hasn’t settled on a ninth-inning option, cycling through Andrew Kittredge—who did lock down Wednesday’s save—Rico Garcia, Grant Wolfram, and Alex Hoppe, the last of whom only arrived in early August.
Another, less expected problem is that the Birds’ rotation is looking as shaky as it has all season all of a sudden. This is a solid group on paper—Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Chris Bassitt, Shane Baz, and Brandon Young—but lately they’re showing wear and tear. On Thursday, Trevor Rogers showed signs of fatigue, allowing six runs on seven hits in five innings, undone by a hanging changeup and control problems. Kyle Bradish is also losing his magic, collapsing in the fifth inning Wednesday and leaving the bullpen to cover 4⅔ scoreless frames just to save the win. Bradish just signed a five-year extension and is already at 143 innings this season, after throwing barely 70 combined in the previous two years while recovering from elbow trouble. Brandon Young, the rookie who nearly threw a perfect game this year, is also worth watching for fatigue: his 3.50 ERA is a genuine achievement for a consummate dark horse, but 123⅓ innings is already more than he’s ever thrown as a professional. And Shane Baz, through no fault of his own, is apparently a bad-luck charm for the Orioles’ offense, sporting a league-high 14 losses despite a 4.02 ERA and the third-worst run support of any starter in baseball.
Circling back to the question of the playoffs, it’s hard to think, even if the Orioles continue to hang tough with the Cleveland Guardians, that these flaws won’t surface down the stretch against a bunch of competitive AL East teams hungry to make the playoffs. The Yankees (75-58) and Red Sox (73-60) are already hold the two spots, and they’re pretty well uncatchable at this point. Three games separate the Orioles from Cleveland, bearer of the third spot, but their schedule requires them to face all their neighbors in the AL East down the stretch. A thin bullpen and a tiring rotation might be surmountable against the Athletics and Rockies, but they’re much harder problems against Boston, Tampa Bay, and Toronto—all clubs with real postseason ambitions of their own—on the way to the finish line.
The O’s are more than talented enough to make noise in the wild-card race, but do they have the depth to do much damage beyond it? It’s hard to think so. At the same time, you want to catch the bug and ride out the momentum of this season while we can. So let’s enjoy a stretch against weaker competition, a three-game set at Oakland beginning today and a weekend trip to Colorado, while we try to figure out once and for all who the 2026 Orioles really are. If this team is for real, this stretch is the time to prove it.
