Another Saturday game pits two teams at opposite ends of the table against each other. The student against the master. The fresh turd against the newly-shined shoe. You get the idea. The reverse fixture ended in a comprehensive 1-3 defeat for the good guys back in September. Things have certainly changed since then but the central truth of one side being a whole hell of a lot better than the other remains, monolithic in the desert, mocking those of us crawling through the sand with dry throats.
The
match will be played Saturday, 31 January 2026, at 17:00 GMT/12:00 PM EST at the Stadio Diego Maradona (which will always be the San Potato to me) in Naples. It’s going to be cloudier and chillier than Campania usually is, with the potential for light rain and some fairly strong gusts of wind, particularly in the second half.
Three things to watch for
1. Some janky lineups
Fiorentina put up an acceptable fight against Como in the Coppa Italia on Tuesday and has had 4 days to recover but still faces some serious questions. The main one is at striker, where Roberto Piccoli picked up a knock against the Lariani. Moise Kean’s probably not fully fit after struggling with an ankle issue so that means Paolo Vanoli’s options to lead the line are the hopelessly wispy Albert Guðmundsson, newly-signed attacking midfielder Giovanni Fabbian, and Primavera star Riccardo Braschi. The first will probably get manhandled, the second isn’t a striker, and the third’s never played at senior level. It’s a headache.
Antonio Conte’s got headaches of his own, and it’s not just the hair plugs. He’s got a remarkable number of absences to cope with, but the main one’s in the middle. Scott McTominay and Stanislav Lobotka are the only healthy midfielders and have been playing 90 minutes a game twice a week for the past month; they look understandably exhausted and the team has suffered badly as a result. McTominay and Lobotka are both unbelievably good players but Fiorentina has a chance to wear them down through attrition here. Turning this into a track meet and forcing them to get up and down will suit the visitors, which could mean Cher Ndour starts strictly to sprint back and forth for at least 45 minutes.
2. Mo-mo-mo-momentum
Even wounded, Napoli’s obviously a very good team. Given all the injuries, I’m astounded that the Partenopei are tied for 3rd and still within striking distance of the scudetto, especially with Conte’s recent record in his second season at a club. However, the narrative around the mister’s Champions League failures has increased in volume following a 2-3 loss at Chelsea that sees Napoli crash out of Europe. Combined with a miserable run of form—1 win in the last 7—and Aurelio di Laurentiis’ outspokenness, it feels like this whole thing could explode at any moment.
Of course, Fiorentina’s an even more miserable club right now. A month of decent results has unraveled with back-to-back losses and now the whispers have begun again. Giuseppe Commisso’s sudden turn from wallpaper to protagonist might provide a little boost but it’s awfully hard to find any positives in the Viola camp right now. Everyone’s out of sorts, playing worse than they ought to, and the specter of a centennial in Serie B shambles closer every week. Basically, these are perhaps the two most fragile sides in Serie A right now. Napoli’s got a massive talent advantage, obviously, but in emotional terms, this could be throwing two handfuls of jello at each other and seeing which one shatters.
3. Physical disparities
This is a basic observation but sometimes those are the ones that matter the most. Napoli’s got a bunch of very large players: Lobotka’s the only guy who’s short for his position and he’s built like a fire hydrant. That gives the Partenopei a massive advantage at crosses and on high balls, where their size allows them to shine. Conte’s system doesn’t rely on winning duels but physical dominance makes everything work better, particularly when the midfielders drift wide to create overloads on the wing that lead to crossing opportunities.
Fiorentina, on the other hand, is about as bad at defending high balls as any team I’ve ever seen. Their set piece woes are common knowledge and they’re not much better from open play. Some of it is personnel—Robin Gosens is the only guy who’s better than average for his position—but a lot of it is the sort of slack marking and lack of focus that would leave a Sunday league defender shaking their head in disgust. Just as Fiorentina probably wants to speed this game up, Napoli wants to slow it down. That’ll give the midfielders a chance to rest, sure, but it’ll also provide a constant goal threat.
Possible lineups
Share My Tactics" data-portal-copyright="Made using Share My Tactics" />
Ted’s Memorial Blind Guess Department
If you’re dumb enough to put your money on Fiorentina and they’re dumb enough to win, you’re going to turn quite a profit. Hopefully you’re not that dumb, though, because the bookies lean Napoli very strongly and any arguments to the contrary are so much sound and fury. The Viola are the ultimate get-right solution, a tonic for any team that needs to arrest a slide, and I don’t for a moment doubt that Conte’s informed his players of that fact. Exhaustion and vibes aside, this one’s got the potential to be a massacre.
Due to the curse, though, I’m compelled to pick a 1-2 win for the visitors. Because we’ve somehow wandered out of reality and into the Feywild, I’ll say that Fiorentina’s goals come from a Robin Gosens header and a speculative Rolando Mandragora effort that deflects off a feral cat that’s wandered onto the pitch (in this bit, the cat’s unharmed but a little rattled), while Giovane scrambles one over for the hosts after a set piece. Napoli will have about 85% possession and about 10 times the shots but somehow won’t break through. Then I’ll wake up again and have to actually watch this game.
Forza Viola!
