One week down, seventeen to go. Falcons fans, I know this one stings. Sunday didn’t end the way anyone wanted, but Week 1 gave us more than frustration. It gave us answers.
We learned that Michael Penix Jr. isn’t backing down from the moment, that the rookies are ready to make an impact, and, yeah, that there are a few spots on this roster that need fixing fast. It’s a long season, but after one game, we’ve already learned a lot. So, let’s get into it.
1) Kicker drama is the worst
Kicker problems truly are the worst, and Atlanta’s
got some. Younghoe Koo’s struggles didn’t start Sunday, with his miss of a potential game-tying 44-yard field goal, but they’ve now become impossible to ignore. Since the beginning of last season, Koo has been one of the more unreliable kickers in the league, ranking 29th out of 31 kickers in FG% (73%) with 20 or more field goal attempts since the start of the 2024 season, a stark difference from years prior. From 2021 to 2023, of any kicker with 40 or more attempts, Younghoe Koo had the 11th-best mark (88.3%).
Morris has brought in competition in the form of two practice squad players: Lenny Krieg, who battled with Koo over the summer, and newcomer John Parker Romo.
“There’s no secrets around here how we go about our business; there will always be a highly competitive atmosphere…Obviously, we have a young man in the building that is more of a young, up-and-comer, developing prospect, but we’ll definitely look at outside and inside the building,” Morris said.
If Morris is one thing, he’s loyal to his players. As of this moment, Koo is still the starter for the Falcons, but the turf around him is shakier than ever since the day he donned the red and black.
2) Michael Penix, Jr. may be the real deal
The Falcons may have done more than just draft a quarterback; they might’ve found the new face of the franchise.
Michael Penix Jr. threw for 298 yards on Sunday, the fourth-most in Week 1, and he did it under fire. The rookie faced the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league (43.5%), yet still generated the fifth-most EPA overall (12.2) and ranked ninth in EPA per dropback (0.27).
One of the best parts of Penix’s game was his ability to keep pressures from turning into negative plays. Coming into the league, that was one of his calling cards; he had the lowest pressure-to-sack ratio of anybody in that loaded 2023 quarterback class.
Well, Sunday may have been the first glimpse into that not only being a positive, but a possible superpower for Penix. According to Next Gen Stats, against pressure, Penix was 10-of-16 (62.5%) for 135 yards and generated 8.2 EPA, the highest of any player last week. The difference between Penix and Baker Mayfield in second is more than the difference between Mayfield and Dak Prescott in eighth.
Pair that with his elite arm strength and ability to move outside of the pocket, and the Falcons may have found their franchise quarterback.
3) The kids are going to be all right
Last week, I wrote about how Atlanta was going to be relying on all the rookies to contribute immediately, and I’m happy to report that they were up to the task.
Jalon Walker, despite having 13 pass-rush snaps, didn’t register a pressure. However, for Walker, it’s clear they’re trying to figure out what the best route to go for him is. They lined him up all across the line in multiple pass-rush groupings. For now, he has shown that athletic versatility as a coverage guy (and QB spy) and strength taking on offensive linemen that made him such a tantalizing prospect.
James Pearce, Jr. had 15 pass-rush snaps and registered 4 pressures for a 26.7% QB pressure rate, the highest of any Falcons EDGE. Pearce’s presence was felt a bit more than his first-round counterpart in that regard. Three out of the four pressures, he essentially bench-presses fill-in left tackle Graham Barton into the lap of quarterback Baker Mayfield. It’s clear that Pearce’s fastball is his bullrush for now, and that strength should be key in his continuing to make the early impact the Falcons need on his limited snaps.
Billy Bowman had 45 snaps on Sunday and registered six tackles (three solo) with four stops and half a sack. An all-around day that showed why his versatile skill set was so coveted by defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich as a nickel defender. He’s got enough in coverage to keep him on the field and is pretty good when he’s coming downhill. Bowman showed the strength and fearlessness that every defense needs out of their nickel in the run game, and it’s going to be fun to see how he plays throughout the season.
The star of the group on Sunday was safety Xavier Watts. Watts looked like a natural on the other side of former second-team All-Pro safety Jessie Bates. Watts logged six tackles (all solo) and two PBUs in his 36 coverage snaps. While learning what he can and can’t get away with at the NFL level, Watts made plenty of big plays on the day, including a great open-field tackle on a screen pass to Rachaad White near the Falcons’ red zone. Watts was always hovering around the football, and he got his hands on one errant pass intended for Sterling Shepard. You have to think that he is going to catch a few of these over the course of the season.
4) The depth concerns are…concerning
The roster cracks are showing, and they’re hard to miss. There was a clear lack of creativity on the offensive side of the football from offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, and I think that has something to do with the lack of depth on that side of the ball. As the Falcons looked to maneuver past not having Darnell Mooney as a vertical threat and Kaleb McGary in the run game, it was apparent that he was not comfortable dialing up anything exotic.
Penix’s 7.3 air yards/attempt ranked 18th among QBs, and is a drastic contrast from the 10.3 he averaged at the end of last year, where he led one of the more fun offenses heading into the season.
It felt like Robinson was trying to weather the storm as the Falcons get to their early bye week, but there has to be more. Utilize Ray-Ray McCloud in a more vertical capacity, find ways to weaponize Chris Lindstrom a bit more as a puller, anything to get this offense another gear.
5) It’s a long season
Perspective matters. One game doesn’t define a team’s season, and this one is just getting started.
Would it have been nice to get this divisional win in week one? Absolutely. But the great part about a 17-game season is that there are 16 more opportunities to right the ship.
As fair as it may seem to overreact to some of the things we saw Sunday, this is only one chapter in what looks to be a very interesting book.
As the Falcons head to Minneapolis for their first of six primetime games this season (seven, if you count the Germany game against the Indianapolis Colts), there is a sense of optimism, at least for me, that still surrounds this team, despite the result on Sunday.
