How about these Horned Frogs!? A season that started with a loss in Schollmaier Arena the New Orleans Privateers will finish in the NCAA Tournament after the program’s best performance in Big 12 play. TCU closed the season winning eight of its last nine games to climb up to the No. 6-seed in the Big 12 Tournament, the nation’s best conference. The season has been a Jamie Dixon masterclass, keeping the squad motivated and focused despite that resume-obliterating loss to open the campaign, subsequent
brutal setbacks at Utah and Colorado, and coming up just short in marquee opportunities vs. top squads Michigan, Kansas, and BYU. TCU took every punch that the schedule could throw but never tossed in the towel, meeting the moment every time it faced a “must-win” challenge. Now that the step of earning a ticket to the Big Dance has been achieved, TCU will turn its attention to the postseason where they can become forever etched in program history.
Horned Frogs Team Sheet
- NET Rank: 40 (↑2)
- KenPom Rank: 44 (↑1)
- BPI: 48 (-)
- KPI: 36 (↑2)
- Strength of Record: 33 (-)
- Wins Above Bubble Rank: 33 (↑2)
Bracket Projections:
Note: all rankings are per NET unless otherwise noted
- ESPN: 9-seed vs. #29 Utah State Aggies (🫣) in Tampa Bay, FL
- CBS: 10-seed vs. #30 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Haslam: 9-seed vs. #28 Kentucky Wildcats
- Torvik: 100% in Tournament, average seed 8.6
- INCCSTATS: 100% in Tournament, average seed 8.3
- BracketMatrix: Average seed 9.27
Seed Battle
With the Horned Frogs securing its ticket to March Madness, we now can turn our attention to where TCU will end up when the bracket is revealed on Selection Sunday. Ahead of conference tournament week, TCU currently slots in as a projected 9-seed, which is one of the toughest bracket hands to be dealt. The Frogs have twice previously been a 9-seed during the Dixon era, defeating Seton Hall by 27 points in 2022 and losing to Utah State by 16 points in 2024. Teams placed into the 8/9 game face a virtual coin flip in the Round of 64, with the 9-seed winning that opening round game 51.9% of the time since 1985, per research from Illinois University. A 50/50 shot doesn’t sound so bad, however that winner is all but guaranteed to be paired against an elite No. 1-seed in the Second Round, staring up at daunting odds as only 5% of 9-seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16. It could be argued that falling into a 10-12 seed would be preferred, if your goal is to win multiple games. While the R64 game likely presents a greater challenge, the R32 game is certain to be easier, proven out by the 14-17% of teams seeded 10-12 advancing to the second week of the Tournament. The odds improve marginally for 7-seeds and demonstrably for 6-seeds and better. For the Frogs to make a case for escaping above the 8/9 game, it will have to win its Q2 opportunity vs. Colorado/Oklahoma State on Wednesday in the Big 12 Tournament 2nd Round and then get the Q1 upset over the Kansas Jayhawks in Kansas City. Anything can happen once the Madness begins, but continuing to climb the seed list would be a good signal for further success through the Tournament as the Horned Frogs look to win multiple NCAA Tournament games for the first time in program history. Even as its spot in the Tournament is secure, TCU remains an extreme long shot to contend deep into the bracket, at +50,000 odds to win the National Championship according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Michigan (+320) is the current favorite to cut the nets in Indianapolis in April, a team the Horned Frogs had on the ropes in Fort Worth back in November, eventually succumbing to a 67-63 Wolverines comeback.
Bubble Watch
It was an absolute bloodbath on the Bubble Battlefield this weekend as so many of these teams fighting for at-large legitimacy took damaging losses. In what can confidently be claimed as the softest the Bubble has ever been at the close of the regular season, just about every Power conference team around the cut-line stepped on a rake in the season finale. Meanwhile the mid-majors may just be positioning for bid thieves to shrink the available slots even further. VCU picked up a Q1 win at Dayton and could still be a last-four-in squad even if it loses in the A-10 Tournament; Miami Ohio delivered another thrilling win, escaping with the Q3 win at Ohio in overtime to complete the regular season undefeated, making it hard to imagine it is left in the cold despite a strength of schedule ranked No. 340; Santa Clara got a must-win victory in the WCC Quarterfinals to advance to a showdown with #20 Saint Mary’s in the semis where a wins would lock the Broncos into the Big Dance. The Horned Frogs erased all doubt about its position as a certain NCAA Tournament squad and should be safely ahead of any play-in consideration with Saturday’s win over Cincinnati. Clemson flirted with disaster, but escaped with the three-point Q4 home win over #167 Georgia Tech, avoiding the only loss that could’ve put the Tigers into troubled water. Ohio State emerged with a major Bubble win, stomping on Indiana to send the Hoosiers beneath the cut line while the Buckeyes now live in luxury as a lock. As Championship Week begins, expect the movement to continue as the clock begins to strike midnight on many of these Cinderellas, signaling the new day beginning for others vying for a shot at March glory.
