Well, that’s a wrap on the West Coast. The Cleveland Guardians head home and into the final weekend of August as the hottest team in baseball; Winners of 7 straight, 8 of their last 9, trailing the White Sox by 2.5 games for the division, and leading the Rangers by 2 games for the final Wild Card. Cleveland will have 28 games in 9 series to earn one of the 6 American League Playoff spots. How do they get there, and how can they win their 3rd straight division title? Let’s dive right in…
The Situation
The Guardians have 28 games in 31 days to end the season. All 9 series are AL teams. 5 series at Home, 4 on the Road. They have 1 Double Header (Detroit on Friday 9/4, in the middle of 10 games in 9 days!)
Home: KC, TOR, DET (4), CWS, A’s
Away: BAL, MIN, BOS, KC
Only 2 teams (BOS, CWS) remaining on their schedule are over .500, while 4 (BAL, TOR, DET, MIN) are still technically in the Wild Card race. And odds are they will still be in the race when they face Cleveland, as all of the teams chasing will be in the four series to start September.
And how Cleveland dues vs those teams in particular, could end up mattering a good amount.
Tie Breakers
With so many teams bunched together, another factoid up for consideration this time of year would be any Tie Breakers that the Guardians own, or more importantly, don’t own. Cleveland will likely only have tie breakers over DET & BAL in the Wild Card race. A huge bummer.
In the AL, they’ve already lost the season series to TB, NYY, HOU & TEX. The rest are all up for grabs, and this is what they would need to do to take those series…
Must sweep to take series: CWS, MIN
2-1 would split; a Sweep to win: BOS, TOR
1 to split; 2 to win: A’s
3-3 or better: KC
1 win to clinch: BAL
Already won: DET, SEA, LAA
Unfortunately all the series they’ve won or should win are teams that are likely out of it. Now, if they could pull a sweep against one of those top 4, they’d really put themselves in a great spot.
5 Trends to consider
While I do believe the Guardians have somewhat “flipped a switch” over this past week, I cannot ignore the trends they have built up this year. Some don’t show much of an advantage/disadvantage, but here are 5 that I find particularly notable…
5: The Getaway Day Guards
Cleveland has 5 travel days left, 3 of which don’t have an off day in between games. Their longest flight is from Boston to KC to end the season, which is one of those without the off day. Looking back at this season, it’s hard to ignore the “Getaway Day Guards”. They are significantly worse when they have a flight to catch and a game tomorrow; 8-12 when they have a game/flight/game without an off day in between. And 2 of those wins just came on this recent stretch… 3 games left ( vs DET, @ MIN, @ BOS) all fit this criteria and should be a cause for concern.
4- The Getaway Day Guards, PRE-Rest!
HOWEVER, the Guardians do tend to do well when they have an off day coming… they are 11-5 in Finales before an off day. With 5 of those remaining (KC, @ BAL, CWS, A’s, @ KC), hopefully they can continue that winning trend and secure a few series wins there.
3- Divisional Supremacy
It comes as no surprise that the Guardians typically clean up in division, something they really haven’t done this season. Yet.
16 of the final 28 games are AL Central matchups. The most in such a small time since last season. Currently they are 4-6 vs MIN & CWS, 7-2 vs DET & 4-3vs KC. Maybe I’m showing my bias, but it’s hard to believe they won’t right the ship near the end here. I don’t think they’ll get to that 30 win bar they typically keep, but I also think they’ll find a way to take the series vs 3 of the 4.
2- Road Dawgs
The Guardians are currently 5 games over .500 on the road this year. Which will come in handy down the stretch- if they stay hot the home crowds will show, and if they can hold their own on the road, it’ll make for a lesser ask at home… Meanwhile, there’s a team who is AWFUL on the road that is in their way. More on that later…
1-September Vogt
Say what you want about how the majority of the season has gone over the past few years, one thing Vogt has taught us is that he has these guys ready to play in September;
15-10 in 2024
20-7 in 2025
After last season’s comeback I told myself not to judge the regular season’s body of work until we finish 162. I said it time and time again this season when we question his decision making. But one thing I won’t question is if f these boys will be giving us their best this next month.
Projection for Wild Card
Series wise, to get a WC I think you need to win 4/5 series at home for 10-6 record. Then you would just need to go 6-6, splitting your four road series to get you to 84 wins. The way things are looking right now, even factoring in HOU/TEX performing well, 84 is a solid target.
Of course, the matchups matter more if you wanna catch CWS…
Winning the Central
We can play coulda/shoulda/woulda all day, but it won’t change a thing. Can the Guardians go 16-12 for 84 wins? 18-10 will likely be more than enough at 86, but that’s basically winning every series left. A tough ask with so many series left.
It’s a really unfair ask, but if you go 8-8 in the next 16, AND sweep the White Sox to secure the season series, I think they win the division. Anything less is gonna be tough.
If they go 2-1 vs the White Sox, they will not get the crucial tie breaker, and will have only made up 1 game in the standings. They could still win the division, but it becomes very unlikely at that point unless the White Sox go on a slide.
A couple reasons to believe that they ~could~ sweep Chicago:
-White Sox have worst road record of any playoff team.
-15-15 last 30 games
-7-14 on road at other playoff teams
-swept 5x this season, by MIL, BOS, DET, BAL, TB. First 3 being on the road
IF you find a way to sweep Chicago at home, you secure the Tie Breaker AND will gain 3 games in the standings. The difference between 2-1 to 3-0 is enormous here.
Now, you’re probably wondering what I think they’ll do. I’m a pretty optimistic guy, so I’m going glass half full; I think they go 18-10 down the stretch, winning 86 games. Is that good enough? Well, I honestly think Chicago goes 6-10 on the road and 9-4 at home. That’s good for 85 wins and Wild Card 3.
But there’s a lot of work that needs to be done to make that happen. Starting with Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha tonight. Guards at home, Royals on the road, the trends favor us. It’s time for the Players to make it happen.
