With Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman missing time, the Red Sox have had to play musical chairs in the bullpen over the last few weeks. The music stopped while Raymond Burgos and Seth Martinez were standing, leaving Wyatt Olds and Alec Gamboa in the two remaining seats.
Ideally, neither pitcher is asked to pitch in high-leverage situations. When the Red Sox take a lead, the likes of Tyron Guerrero, Erik Miller, and Aroldis Chapman should be pitching. But there are times, such as Saturday against
the Giants, when one of the low men on the totem pole will be given the ball in a close game. On Saturday, Olds entered the game with his team trailing by two runs in the top of the eighth. He ran into some trouble, but ultimately kept the Giants off the board and gave the Red Sox a chance to tie or win the game later (they did).
The offense gets the glory for grinding it out and scoring three runs in the ninth to win the game, but Olds deserves credit for giving them that chance. The low-leverage roles aren’t sexy, but they are important, especially in a thin bullpen. Chad Tracy can’t afford to throw Miller or Guerrero when trailing by three runs, with no off days in sight. He doesn’t want to extend his starter for additional innings when holding a healthy lead after six innings. Someone needs to pitch those innings, and in Gamboa and Olds, the Red Sox have a pair who have done the job admirably.
Gamboa’s stuff doesn’t jump off the page, but he has some qualities that make him a perfect innings eater. The most important is his control. He’s in the zone with his fastballs a lot. The strike rate on both his four-seamer and sinker is near 70%, which contributes to his low walk rate. They both feature solid velocity at about 96 mph, while 6.5 feet of extension helps them play up even more. Additionally, he has unique mechanics that present hitters with a different look.
Gamboa rocks back, hiding the ball before extending towards the plate and finishing his delivery. His arm angle is among the most vertical in the league at 62 degrees. That vertical release, coupled with some perceived cut on his four-seam fastball, might be aiding the incredibly low hard-hit rate against the pitch, despite locating in the zone frequently. Similarly, his sinker doesn’t have any outlier traits, but hitters have struggled to get it off the ground.
Gamboa has a slider as well, and like his fastballs, the stuff doesn’t jump off the page. Despite that, it induces chases at an incredibly high rate. That’s likely because of how many strikes he’s getting with his fastballs. Of pitchers with at least 250 pitches thrown, Gamboa ranks 2nd in percentage of pitches thrown while ahead in the count, behind only Josh Hader. Other pitchers nearby in the rankings include MLB saves leader Bryan Baker, Garrett Whitlock, Tyron Guerrero, and two-time Cy Young Award Winner Tarik Skubal. Pitching from ahead is a tried-and-true method of getting outs, and Gamboa has been able to do that.
Olds has only made a few appearances out of the Red Sox bullpen, but hasn’t allowed a run through 3.1 innings. If you’re looking for the opposite of Gamboa, you’ve come to the right place. Olds has electric stuff, but hasn’t been able to stay in the zone. He uses a fastball/slider combination, and each pitch is an outlier in its own way.
His four-seam fastball averages 97 mph and comes with above-average extension. Every pitcher on the Red Sox has above-average extension. I’m not sure why I keep writing it. You should just assume it unless you hear otherwise. On top of the velocity and extension, it has above-average vertical movement (16.5 inches) from a low release (5.4 feet, 33-degree arm angle). All of this combines for an incredibly flat approach angle, making it difficult to square up. The swinging strike rate currently sits at a solid 12% over a small sample, but the shape is solid enough to support a higher rate.
Olds’ slider is even more of an outlier. Here’s a look at vertical break and velocity from breaking balls across the league this season.
The harder you throw the ball, the less time it has to drop. Olds’ slider is averaging 11 inches of induced drop while being thrown at 88 mph. The closest comparisons this season are Brendon Little’s curveball, which is a tick slower with about one extra inch of drop, and Jacob Misiorowski’s curveball, which is slightly harder but doesn’t have the same bite. We’re dealing with an incredibly small sample, but so far his swinging strike rate is off the charts. Hitters struggle with shapes they don’t see often, and Olds has an outlier breaking ball.
The knock, as I mentioned, is his ability to throw strikes. His fastball zone rate is low at 40%. His slider strike rate is solid, but carried by the chases and whiffs he’s induced. The Red Sox have had success at helping pitchers find the zone, but Olds has been in the system since 2021 and has carried double-digit walk rates at every stop of his career. He’s also getting his first call-up in August with several other options on the shelf, so that might inform you of the Red Sox’s valuation of the reliever. Still, relievers get hot all the time, and his strikeout upside gives him an out when he gets into trouble and makes him an intriguing option for Chad Tracy in a pinch.
As I wrote this, Wyatt Olds began warming up to pitch the bottom of the tenth inning. This is the exact “pinch” I was referring to above. Let’s live react:
Otto Lopez: Does not strike out much; Olds immediately falls behind 1-0. Absurd swing by Lopez at 1-0 at a slider nowhere close. At 1-1, it’s a rare cutter from Olds that should be an out, but Monasterio makes a bad throw, and there are two runners on.
Heriberto Hernandez: Another cutter, this time for a pop-up. I guess I have to write about the cutter now.
Kyle Stowers: First lefty Olds is seeing today. Starts with a fastball down for a foul ball, bad location, good result. Another cutter, this one outside. I wonder if they think the cutter is the strike-getter he needs; they’ve all been around the zone. Another four-seam, fouled off to bring the count to 1-2. Another foul ball on a fastball. If he can elevate it, he’ll get a whiff, but he keeps throwing it down in the zone. The at-bat ends on a fastball in off the plate that was hit way down the line for a sacrifice fly.
Miguel Sanoja: Tying run on third base. You have to be careful with the slider in the dirt. Cutter, ball one to start. It’s close, but he can’t get a chase. Good four-seam on the hands for a foul ball. Another cutter, fouled off. I’d like to see the slider here at 1-2. Cutter misses. He loves the cutter tonight. Another cutter, this one isn’t close. 3-2, I want to see a slider. It’s all cutters. Another one fouled off. Oh god Gamboa is warming up I’m gonna have to rewrite this whole thing. Sanoja fouled off another cutter. Now he fouled off a fastball. Throw the slider, you lunatic. Do it. Do it please. He threw the slider, got a terrible swing for strike three, but the ball got away, and the run scored. You can’t make this up.
Olds really should have had four outs there if you count the error from Monasterio. He only threw two sliders, and both returned ugly swings. His fastball didn’t get whiffs, but he also couldn’t locate it up in the zone, which has basically been the story so far. The cutter was the real revelation as it led his arsenal, but he couldn’t quite find the zone with it. The stuff remains excellent, and the strikeouts are there, so I’m going to count that as a win. Poor defense let him down, but watch these two swings and tell me that isn’t something there.
Baseball is weird. It’s the only sport where you can be writing about two low-leverage relievers who happen to enter a game in the exact spot you say they might be a good fit for. Jarren Duran homered to blow the game open, and now Gamboa just needs to throw strikes to close it out. I was going to write a conclusion, explaining how when rosters expand, Gamboa and Olds might have a role. Instead, I’ll ask you to go back, watch the 10th and 11th innings from last night, and you can see them in the roles they might fill. Skip the part where Gamboa walks someone; that doesn’t fit the agenda.
