The Mountain West men’s basketball landscape will be ushering in a completely new era this upcoming season.
With conference realignment plaguing the country, multiple high-end programs — namely Boise State, Utah State and San Diego State — were purged by the Pac-12, with a few leftovers in New Mexico, Nevada and Grand Canyon competing for the crown, among others.
Nevada and New Mexico have combined for eight regular season tournament titles, six conference titles and 11 NCAA Tournament appearances
since joining the Mountain West. Grand Canyon joined the conference ahead of last season, but did not make a postseason tournament despite finishing 20-12.
Heading into 2026-27, those three are the presumptive favorites to win the Mountain West — barring a leap from Wyoming, UNLV or even Hawai’i in its introductory MW campaign. This is still a respectable conference — they rank No. 8 out of 32 conferences, according to KenPom after typically being No. 6 or 7 the past several years. They also have four teams inside the top-80 and six inside the top-135.
Yet, the MW remains one where most of the juice was already squeezed without much left. Collectively, the conference saw just one NCAA Tournament bid last year, and it’s entering a reality where that could become the new norm. Even with an expanded field, the odds of securing multiple bids will be more difficult than ever, given the lack of quality conference games, as well as fewer Quad 1-2 games schedules.
But I still think the odds are better than metric systems are giving MW programs credit for, especially for one team: New Mexico.
Fresh off an NIT semifinal appearance in 2025-26, New Mexico enters the new season ranked No. 77 in KenPom’s preseason rankings and No. 67 in Barttorvik’s. They bring back the preseason player of the year and reigning freshman of the year Jake Hall, as well as lightning quick point guard Uriah Tenette and former Air Force wing Rytis Petraitis.
I suspect there is room for improvement from their 26-win season last year — which is no easy feat. However, Barttorvik is giving the Lobos just a 0.1 percent chance at a tournament bid this year — compared to a 36.2 percent chance for Grand Canyon, another program flush with high end talent with questions still looming over Jaden Henley’s eligibility. If he’s deemed ineligible by the start of the season, their margin-for-error thins.
According to Barttorvik, New Mexico is slated to play two Quad 1 games — both road trips against Wichita State and GCU — as well as 11 Quad 2 games, beginning with a road test against Santa Clara on Nov. 14. Conversely, GCU is set to play just one more Quad 1 game with four fewer Quad 2 games.
As good as I think the Antelopes will be, a difference of one Quad 1 game plus the talent discrepancy isn’t enough to justify a 36 percent gap in odds between the two programs. Both programs have opportunities to pad at least one more Quad 1 or 2 games depending on how their opponents play elsewhere, but that could be said about any team. And some of what’s baked into Barttorvik’s rankings is that it projects GCU to win the conference tournament — and thus securing that bid.
But I also believe that Hall, Tenette and head coach Eric Olen have as good as a chance as any MW program — at least compared to what their 0.1 percent chance suggests.
