Borussia Dortmund will look to close out the year on a much-needed high, with Borussia Mönchengladbach coming to town tonight.
While BVB started the season strong but have sputtered of late, Gladbach have had the opposite fortunes, having recently turned things round and gone on a bit of a run. Die Fohlen have won three, drawn one, and lost one in their last five league games, and have climbed to 11th as a result, having been in the relegation zone early in the season. Dortmund, on the other hand,
are actually undefeated in their last five league games, but they have won just twice over that stretch.
Dortmund should really be heavy favourites this evening, but there’s no doubt Gladbach will be feeling like they can get a result at the Westfalenstadion. BVB are low on confidence and if they drop points here they will have a month to stew on it.
Player to Watch: Haris Tabakovic
All of Borussia Mönchengladbach’s success runs through Haris Tabakovic at the moment. Having joined Gladbach this summer, he has scored seven goals and assisted another three (1.01 npG+A/90) so far this season. I’m not entirely convinced he can keep it up, but he’s all they’ve got so they are going to keep going back to that well.
Gladbach haven’t been great on either side of the ball, but their defense is at least a team effort. Going forward, everything channels through Tabakovic. Everyone else’s job is to create chances for Tabakovic, and Tabakovic’s job is to finish those chances. So far he’s doing that job pretty well!
Tabakovic has never been a reliable goalscorer at the top level, but he seems to be on a run of form now. Maybe Die Fohlen have unearthed a gem?
Predicted Lineup
BVB will be without Jobe Bellingham who is serving a two-game suspension, and Ramy Bensebaini who has headed off to the African Cup of Nations. Waldemar Anton and Aaron Anselmino are both out with knocks, but Marcel Sabitzer, Julian Brandt, and Salih Özcan are all back and should be available to play a part. As a result, there will be some changes to the starting eleven. Some by choice, some less so.
I’m sure Kovač would ideally like to bring both Marcel Sabitzer and Julian Brandt back in, but I’m not sure he will be willing to lean on two returning players to start the game, so I think Brandt will play a part from the bench.
I think Carney Chukwuemeka will get the start ahead of Brandt, and I’ve gone for Niklas Süle to fill out the backline with everyone else out.
Match Prediction
I’m not confident about my pick tonight because Dortmund have been so shaky recently. It feels like this is the kind of game they should be winning, but they could easily stumble out the blocks and find themselves in real trouble against a Gladbach side full of confidence.
Predicting Ball gives Dortmund a 60.5% probability of winning, compared against a 19.8% probability of a Gladbach win and a 19.7% probability of a draw. I think I’d give Gladbach a slightly better chance than that, given the context surrounding both sides right now, but it’s still difficult to look past the fact that this is a game Dortmund should be winning.
Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Your Thoughts?
Who do you think comes out on top tonight? Let us know in the comments.
