UNC handled UConn last Saturday. The defense flipped its usual script, surrendering an abnormally high number of explosive plays (nine) but also generating an abnormally high level of havoc: eight QB hurries, three sacks, four tackles for loss, two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), and a fumble recovery (with an assist from the officials). UNC’s offense, in its last six drives, produced five touchdowns and a single missed FG on a wet field. UNC simply made more plays than UConn on both
sides of the ball in a comfortable win.
Louisville presents a stiffer challenge Saturday, the most explosive offense UNC’s yet faced (yes, even more explosive than Miami’s) and an opportunistic defense that’s produced 15 turnovers this season. As a result, Louisville leads the conference in turnover margin (+7). On the plus side, Louisville sits at just 13th in the conference in penalties, signaling a team prone to making mistakes at crucial junctures. The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites in Chapel Hill, with an over of 59.5. The sports books see something along the lines of a 31-28 Louisville win, but one play can flip that expectation.
Efficiency metrics after UConn: Survey SAYS….
The three big metrics on average now rate UNC the 43rd best team in the country, moving up nine spots in the last two weeks. This deep into the season, that’s a strong move. The offense, in the last four weeks, has passed the defense and separated, emerging clearly as the stronger unit. Defensive stops become even more important now, in order to get the offense more bites at the apple.
Against FBS competition, UNC now has a positive point differential of +7 (209 points for, 202 points against). It’s a vastly improved team compared to last season but still with a narrow margin for victory.
Overall: 43rd (up 3)
FEI: 41 SP+: 50 FPI: 36
Offense: 32nd (up 5)
FEI: 27 SP+: 49 FPI: 28
Defense: 53rd (up 1)
FEI: 55 SP+: 51 FPI: 54
ACC Rank: 7th (up 1)
FEI: 6th SP+: 9th FPI: 6th
Explosive plays comparison: offense
Louisville generates a high number of explosive plays, more rushing than passing (look for the Cardinal logo towards the top of the Y axis). UNC doesn’t generate many explosive plays either way, relying more on efficiency and red zone conversions than big plays.
Explosive plays comparison: defense
UNC’s defense does a very good job preventing explosive plays in both the run and pass game. Louisville’s defense in that respect shows up much stronger against the run than the pass. Can Edwards hit some combination of Thurman, Shipp, or Helton in stride to create some big gains? It’s been a problem area for the Cardinals.
Is Louisville’s defense really their weak link?
Their raw numbers aren’t great, only ranking 11th in the conference in points per game. However, the Cardinals’ defense has faced a tougher run of offenses while generating similar yards per play numbers to UNC’s. Third downs will be an interesting contrast: UNC ranks 16th in the ACC in third down conversion rate, while Louisville ranks 3rd.
How tough the schedule looks after nine games:
FPI rates UNC’s difficulty of schedule so far 18th, with the remaining schedule ranked 55th. FEI puts the SoS at 16th nationally, with the offense facing a tougher challenge (27th nationally) than the defense (55th). Reminder: it’s been decades since UNC faced a top 20 strength of schedule. Caveat: Miami and Notre Dame (both well played but losses) elevate these rankings considerably. Syracuse and Clemson increasingly look like missed opportunities, while the W over Duke looks better with each passing week.
Note: Blend is the team’s current ranking average in the three major CFB metrics (SP+, FEI, and FPI) out of 138 teams.
TCU (4-5). Blend 45 (-4): UNC won.
TCU lost to Arizona with a collapse late in the 4th quarter. TCU led 28-20 with six minutes left in the game but surrendered an 11 play drive for a touchdown. TCU stopped the 2-point conversion which would have tied the game but then muffed a squib kick to allow Arizona a final possession and winning field goal.
ETSU (6-4). Blend N/A: UNC won.
The Bucs lost to Samford 37-35.
Clemson (6-3). Blend 49 (-1): UNC lost.
Clemson beat Syracuse 18-13 in yet another game in which Clemson’s offense failed to score a touchdown.
Notre Dame (7-1). Blend 1 (-): UNC lost.
Notre Dame held off a Hurricane comeback attempt, as a game that looked to be headed towards a blowout actually ended with a favorable referee ruling on a possible Miami touchdown.
Pittsburgh: (6-3). Blend 41 (-1): UNC won.
Bye week
Duke (7-2). Blend 29 (+7): UNC won.
Duke thumped NC State 41-3 after thumping Boston College 47-2. Duke’s jumped 18 spots in the last two weeks and now rate as UNC’s best win of the season by far.
Syracuse (4-5). Blend 72 (+2): UNC lost.
The Orange lost 18-13 to Clemson in a game that featured one offensive touchdown, one defensive touchdown, and six field goals.
Miami (8-1). Blend 3 (+1): UNC lost.
Without Malachi Toney, the Hurricane offense looked decidedly poor for a half, trailing Notre Dame 17-3 after the break. In the second half, Miami outscored the Irish 21-14, and maybe having to learn how to not lean on Toney helps the Hurricanes in the long run.
Connecticut (4-5). Blend 86 (-2): UNC won.
UNC’s defense against the Huskies wasn’t its usual self, allowing more explosive plays than usual but also creating more havoc.
Louisville (6-3). Blend 15 (+7): Stomped Georgia Tech 44-17. Both UNC and Louisville have made big moves up the rankings in the last two weeks, which means the possibility of a compelling, tight game. UNC’s defense will need to prevent long scoring plays and then stand tall in the red zone in this one. Much closer to toss-up than it looked at the beginning of the season, but still an L.
Virginia (4-5). Blend 60 (+1): Virginia’s bye week gives a battered team — physically and emotionally — a chance to regroup. Virginia hit rock bottom in a blowout loss to Wake Forest prior to the bye, so this remains a W.
NC State (4-5). Blend 81 (-13): The dead cat bounce following the firing of Dave Doeren lasted one week. After beating Cal 31-10, State flat-out quit against Duke. Until the Pack shows some signs of life, this rates a W.
At the moment, that projects to 7-5.
