To this point in the 2026 season, on paper Arizona has won the games it was supposed to and lost the ones it wasn’t. The Wildcats have been favored six times, coming out on top each time, and road underdogs to ranked opponents twice with those producing the two losses.
That’s led to a No. 24 ranking in the Associated Press Top 25 and the No. 22 spot in the first College Football Playoffs. It’s debatable if the UA is deserving of those rankings due to the lack of notable wins, but the lack of unexpected
losses plays just as important a role.
Now comes the final stretch of the regular season, with four games over four weeks and three at home. The first of those is Friday, with TCU visiting Casino Del Sol Stadium on a short week.
“The situation is we can’t go back in time,” Arizona coach Brent Brennan said Monday. “We have to look forward and we have to attack what is happening right now.”
Here’s what to watch when the Wildcats (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) and Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3) meet under the lights:
Avoiding a letdown
All across college football this season, including in the Big 12 Conference, the comedown has been rough. Whether it be after a big win or a close loss, many teams have struggled the week after these and it’s cost them.
Just in the Big 12 we’ve seen BYU follow up its impressive win over Notre Dame with a double-overtime loss at UCF, who then proceeded to get crushed at home by a Baylor team that had just fired its coach. And it was the Space Game!
You also had Cincinnati, fresh off knocking Texas Tech from the ranks of the unbeatens, showing zero fight at home a week later against Utah.
Arizona isn’t coming off a big win but the prospect of a letdown still exists, since the visit to Texas Tech had been billed as the big chance to prove it was worthy of a spot in the Big 12 title game and the playoffs. The same was the case with BYU in Week 2, and sure enough the following Saturday the UA was down 10-0 in the first quarter to a Northern Illinois squad that’s the only winless team in FBS.
Falling behind two scores early against NIU is one thing, doing that against TCU would be much harder to overcome.
Establishing the run
Arizona’s 12 rushing yards at BYU was its fewest since netting five at UCF in 2026, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying. Take out the sacks and offensive coordinator Seth Doege called 25 run plays, with 15 of those coming on first down.
The Wildcats averaged 2.6 yards on those 1st down runs, with a long of eight yards.
“From a number standpoint and from space you’re like, it should work and just it just didn’t,” Doege said.
For the season, Arizona averages 3.86 yards on first down when it runs the ball, which is by far the worst in the league.
TCU allows 2.94 yards per carry on first down and 3.22 overall, though three of the last four Big 12 opponents have gained at least 150 on the ground against the Horned Frogs.
It may just be a matter of changing who is getting the ball. Though Kedric Reescano had two rushing TDs at Texas Tech and seven for the season, his 3.61 yards per game is almost half what Quincy Craig (6.83) and Antwan Roberts Jr. (6.74) gain. Reescano has been great in the red zone but not elsewhere, certainly not on first down, while Craig and Roberts each average more than seven yards on 1st down runs
More QB run to defend?
Texas Tech changed things up last week and started Thomas Castellanos, hoping his running ability would spark the offense. It certainly did, as the 5-for-5 transfer ran for 117 yards and a TD and paced a rushing attack that gained 328 yards.
That was the second 300-yard rushing effort allowed in three games by Arizona, and like the one against West Virginia it was heavy on quarterback runs. And until the Wildcats show they can stop that, it’s going to be part of every opponent’s offensive game plan.
“Jaden Craig’s gonna run the ball,” UA defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales said. “We know what we’re gonna see for the next four weeks.”
Craig only has 109 rushing yards for the season, on 67 carries, but take away the 22 times he’s been sacked and he’s run for 249 yards (5.3 per carry). He had 14 runs for 92 yards last week against Kansas including the game-winning TD in the 22-16 victory.
Arizona will be without one of its best runs stoppers in safety Cam Chapa, was was listed out on the availability report and means the secondary will be short two starters as cornerback Jay’Vion Cole will miss a second straight game. Chapa’s father has posted on social media that his son has a hamstring injury that likely keeps him out at least through the end of the regular season.
A tight game throughout
Despite its 4-4 record, TCU has been in every game this season and they’ve usually been low scoring. In the six against power conference opponents the Horned Frogs have averaged 15.3 points and allowed 16.5, never yielding more than 24 while the 22 they had against Kansas last week their best production.
TCU is 1-4 in games decided by one score this season, while Arizona just played its first one but it only finished as a 1-score game because of a late field goal. Last season the UA was 3-3 in 1-score games.
