The last weekend at home might be the biggest weekend of the Arizona Wildcats’ season. The team is hunting for a pair of signature wins and a path to the Big 12 Soccer Tournament. This week’s games against Colorado and Baylor present the exact opportunities UA needs.
The Buffs are currently just ahead of the ‘Cats in 8th place in the Big 12 standings. The two teams both have .571 winning percentages in conference play but CU has 12 points to Arizona’s 10. A victory in Mulcahy Soccer Stadium on Thursday
would catapult UA in front of Colorado for that final conference tournament position.
Three days later, the Wildcats have another big opportunity against No. 9 Baylor on senior day. The Bears have 16 points and a .786 winning percentage in conference play. That ties them with three others atop the league table.
The games also offer a long shot for the Wildcats to get into the NCAA Tournament conversation, although it would likely require a sweep of the two teams and help from others. Draws are probably not going to be enough for an Arizona team sporting an RPI of 97.
Both of this week’s opponents are highly ranked in the RPI, and Arizona is in desperate need of wins against that kind of team. These are the Wildcats’ final two matches against teams currently ranked in the top 50. Both are in the top 10.
Despite being in 8th place in the league standings and having fallen out of the United Soccer Coaches poll, CU is currently 9th in the RPI. That’s the result of a 10-4-1 record that featured seven games against teams in the top 25 of the RPI. The Buffaloes went 3-4 in those games. They are 5-4-1 against teams in the top 100, meaning 67 percent of their matches have been against teams in that echelon of the sport.
While Baylor’s schedule wasn’t quite as difficult as Colorado’s, the Bears were more successful. They are 12-2-1 overall heading into the weekend, which is good enough to give them an RPI of six.
The Bears only had three matches against the top 25 and finished 1-1-1 in those contests. They are 8-2-1 against the top 100, although six of those games were against teams ranked 51-100. In comparison, the Buffs only played three teams in that stratum while concentrating their efforts against the top teams in the sport.
Up Next for Arizona Soccer
Colorado Buffaloes (10-4-1, 4-3-0) @ Arizona Wildcats (5-5-5, 2-1-3)
When: Thursday, Oct. 22 @ 7 p.m. MST
Where: Mulcahy Soccer Stadium in Tucson, Ariz.
Streaming: ESPN+
Stats: Arizona Live Stats
Baylor Bears (12-2-1, 5-1-1) @ Arizona Wildcats (5-5-5, 2-1-3)
When: Sunday, Oct. 25 @ 12 p.m. MST
Where: Mulcahy Soccer Stadium in Tucson, Ariz.
Streaming: ESPN+
Stats: Arizona Live Stats
The Wildcats need both marquee wins because they had to settle for draws too often this season. Worse, one of those draws came against a team outside the top 150. That match was the scoreless draw at No. 192 Utah last week.
Arizona’s stats outline those issues. The Wildcats have improved offensively during conference play, but they still allow almost exactly as many goals as they score. They have scored 1.143 goals per game during conference play. They allow 1.14.
That 0.00 margin puts the ’Cats even with Arizona State with the ninth-best margin in the Big 12. In comparison, BU has a margin of 0.42 to rank 6th in the league. CU’s margin is 0.29, which comes in 7th.
Arizona’s defense can measure up with both of its more heralded opponents. The Buffaloes also allow 1.14 goals per match in league play. The Bears allow even more at 1.29. That hasn’t been the Wildcats’ problem this year and it probably won’t be this weekend.
Arizona needs to be able to keep up with its two visitors on the offensive end of the field. Baylor is tied with BYU for 2nd in the league with 1.714 goals scored per match. Colorado is tied with three other teams with the 5th best scoring average in the Big 12. That group of four teams average 1.429 goals per game.
Arizona head coach Becca Moros has noted how much pressure the Wildcats’ offensive struggles place on her defense.
“For the defenders, we we are asking them to be perfect all the time, no mistakes, and that’s not possible,” she said after Arizona’s beat Houston during its last homestand.
That was once again the issue at Utah. The Wildcats’ defense had to be perfect. For the most part, they were. One mistake in the box almost cost them the game, though. Without consistent offense, one mistake can be all it takes.
If Arizona hopes to get to its second Big 12 Tournament in the three years since joining the conference, it needs to rise to the occasion against two strong teams. It did so against Houston two weeks ago. The Cougars have only lost two conference matches, and Arizona was the agent of one of them.
Even if they can’t get to the postseason, a win over Baylor on Sunday would send the Wildcat seniors out on a high note for senior day. It’s now or never for the ‘Cats as they wrap up their final home matches and the careers of some of its leaders.
