One week ago, I posted a column with the FanDuel 2026 NFL Draft odds for overall pick No. 5, which is currently held by none other than your New York Football Giants. You can see it here. The weeks and days leading up to the NFL draft are overrun with ever-changing narratives, smokescreens, hype, rumors, and innuendo. The public perception of which players are most likely to go to which teams is in constant flux. Today we’ll take another look at the FanDuel odds for Pick 5, to see how they’ve moved
and what we might glean from that. I’ll post another update next week, with the final draft odds.
Looking at mock drafts from the so-called “experts” is one way to gauge how the first round of the draft might unfold, and to that end Ed Valentine has been posting a mock draft tracker each Friday. Here is the latest. Of course, mock drafts, gambling odds, and public sentiment ultimately don’t matter on draft night. NFL teams – or at least those that are good at what they do — tune out the noise.
Big Blue’s brass is responsible for constructing a draft board and only they know what direction the team is going to go in at Pick 5, and with their other selections. The plans for Pick 5 need to account for, and as necessary adjust to, (a) one or more players that they covet getting snagged before they’re on the clock, and (b) the possibility of one or more teams trading up to grab a specific player. In my view, the Jets at No. 2, Cardinals at No. 3, Titans at No. 4, and Giants at No. 5 are all trade-down candidates, if they get the right offer.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is almost certainly going to the Raiders at Pick 1. But after that, this draft is harder to predict than most, because Mendoza is the only quarterback likely to go anywhere near the top of the draft, and the talent level of the top non-QB prospects is relatively flat and spread across multiple positions. A year ago, it was pretty clear that after the Titans took Miami QB Cam Ward at No. 1, the next two picks were almost certain to be Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter and Penn State Edge Abdul Carter, in some order, followed by LSU tackle Will Campbell to the Patriots at No. 4 – and that’s exactly how it unfolded.
This draft has no such clarity at the top. In addition to there being no consensus on the order of the other top prospects after Mendoza, the teams drafting 2-5 all have multiple needs, and could go in several directions, including trading out as discussed above. The mock drafts and the FanDuel odds try to take all of that into account. In the end, I think very few prognosticators will nail the Top-5 picks exactly. It’s just that kind of year.
Let’s take a look at the movement in the odds. As a reminder, the odds are tagged to the pick itself and not the team.
These were the odds as of April 7 for the “favorites” at Pick 5:
- Ohio State LB Sonny Styles: +185
- Ohio State S Caleb Downs: +380
- Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: +500
- Ohio State WR Carnell Tate: +900
- Miami OT Francis Mauigoa +1000
These are the odds as of April 14 for the top seven choices at Pick 5. I’ve expanded it because there are now seven players with odds of +2,000 (20:1) or better:
- Ohio State LB Sonny Styles: +175
- Miami OT Francis Mauigoa +440
- Ohio State S Caleb Downs: +600
- Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: +600
- Ohio State WR Carnell Tate: +800
- LSU CB Mansoor Delane +2000
- Utah OT Spencer Fano +2000
What can we take away from these changes?
First, the odds continue to align with the mock draft tracker, which still shows Styles as the consensus favorite to go to the Giants at Pick 5. In the latest tracker (linked above), Styles was the pick in 35 of 69 mocks last week, pushing him just above 50%. The odds for Styles have dropped very slightly, but not on any news linking him to the team. The slight shortening of his odds likely reflects the most significant change in the odds from last week, which is at Pick 2, held by the Jets. A week ago, Ohio State Edge/LB Arvell Reese was a strong favorite to go to the Jets, at -280. A week later, Texas Tech Edge David Bailey is now the favorite to go to the Jets (-135), with Reese behind him at +105. Styles is next, but he’s way down at +4000.
If the Jets take Bailey at No. 2, it’s highly likely that either the Cardinals or Titans will take Reese, and that would make it a little more probable that Styles lasts to pick No. 5, as he’d only need to get past one team. It doesn’t make it more likely that he’s the player the Giants want, but a big part of this exercise is trying to figure out the best players that will still be available when the Giants hand in their card.
Another observation: The odds are showing a greater likelihood of the Giants taking an offensive lineman at No. 5. The biggest mover from a week ago is Mauigoa – from 10:1 all the way up to about 4.5:1, and the second shortest odds after Styles. Not only that, but Fano is lurking at 20:1. Part of the change in Mauigoa’s odds is the Bailey-to-the-Jets factor noted above, which, as with Styles, increases the likelihood of him being available at No. 5. But also, we know John Harbaugh values a punishing line, and while the Giants are set at tackle for the near future, Jermaine Eluemunor is 31. They could kick either rookie inside to guard for now (some scouts think both are better suited to that position, ultimately), and/or deploy either one as a swing tackle. Fano in particular offers great positional versatility all along the line. Tackle is a premium position where depth matters.
It’s also worth noting the appearance of Delane at 20:1, and if I was going to throw in a wager, that’s the one I’d take given the value. Are the Giants likely to grab the LSU corner at No. 5? No. But he’ll almost certainly be available to them, and it’s a viable path for the team. Corner is a premium position, it’s a need (in today’s NFL, you can never have enough good ones), Delane is an excellent prospect who can play inside, outside, man, and zone, and he’s known for his smarts and instincts. In discussing positional value, Harbaugh stated that corner is one of the two positions at the top of his list.
Finally, the odds for Downs, Love, and Tate haven’t moved too much, other than a fairly significant drop for Downs. All three are certainly in play for Big Blue, if available. Of the three, I think Downs is still the most likely, but you can make the case for (or against) all of them. Downs and Tate should both make it to pick 5, while Love could get snatched before the Giants pick.
Is it any more likely than it was seven days ago that Styles will be the selection for Joe Schoen and Harbaugh? I’ll say yes, but only because it’s looking more likely that he’ll be on the board when the Giants pick. I still have my doubts that they’d take an off-ball linebacker that high. The good news is that we will know soon — the long wait is almost over.
