UFC Vegas 123 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend on Halloween (Sat., Oct. 31, 2026), inside the META APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, No. 8-ranked Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight Renato Moicano returns to action against Australian heavy hitter Tom Nolan in a veteran vs. up-and-comer type matchup.
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in the desert “Sin City” when the chaotic
dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Vegas 123 betting lock in the comments section below (see full UFC Vegas 123 odds here).
Last week’s recap: And after a three-week stretch of taking L’s, we’re back in the winners column as Alexander Volkov’s ML hit when he defeated Rizvan Kuniev at UFC 333.
Let’s keep rolling below:
Top 10 women’s Bantamweights Luana Santos and Yana Santos collide on UFC Vegas 123’s main card in a matchup that screams 15 minutes of fighting.
This week, I’m locking in this fight to go the distance (-275).
Here’s why:
Sometimes, betting doesn’t have to be complicated.
Both of these women have made a habit of going to the judges’ scorecards throughout their UFC careers, and I don’t see that changing this weekend.
Let’s start with Yana.
The 36-year-old veteran has competed in 12 UFC fights and has never scored a finish inside the Octagon.
Not one.
All seven of her UFC victories have come by decision, including her last three wins over Chelsea Chandler, Miesha Tate and Macy Chiasson. She’s a technical, high-volume striker who knows how to win rounds but doesn’t possess the type of knockout power that keeps opponents up at night.
And Luana isn’t exactly a knockout artist herself.
The Brazilian has scored three finishes in her seven UFC appearances, but those came against lower-level competition. As she’s stepped up in competition, her finishing ability has noticeably declined.
Her last two victories over Melissa Croden and Karol Rosa both went the full three rounds.
Luana’s biggest strength is her grappling, and while she’s capable of finding submissions, she generally prefers to wrestle her opponents, establish control, and bank rounds.
That’s perfectly fine with me.
Stylistically, this feels like a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup. Yana should have the advantage on the feet, while Luana will likely look to close the distance, secure takedowns, and control the action on the mat.
Neither approach necessarily screams finish.
And with both women currently riding three-fight winning streaks, there’s plenty at stake in the Bantamweight rankings. I expect both fighters to be calculated rather than recklessly chasing a stoppage.
What could go wrong?
Luana’s submission game is the biggest concern.
She’s a talented grappler who has shown she can capitalize when opponents make mistakes, and Yana has struggled with takedown defense throughout her UFC career. If Luana gets into a dominant position and starts hunting submissions instead of maintaining control, this bet could go south quickly.
Still, given Yana’s complete lack of UFC finishes and Luana’s recent tendency to wrestle her way to decisions against better competition, I feel pretty damn confident we’ll need all 15 minutes.
It definitely won’t win Fight of the Night.
But hopefully, it’ll win us some money.
Give me Luana Santos vs. Yana Santos to go the distance (-275) as this week’s “Weekend Lock.”
L. Santos via TKO/KO/DQ: +1200
L. Santos via submission: +380
L. Santos via decision: -135
Y. Santos via TKO/KO/DQ: +1400
Y. Santos via submission: +4000
Y. Santos via decision: +320
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