Happy Opening Day! With the season about to begin, we brought together our writers to preview the season and discuss what concerns them, what they are hopeful about, and how the Royals will perform in 2026.
Did the Royals do enough this offseason?
Brian Henry: What is enough? To go to the playoffs, yes. To win the World Series, probably not unless Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen are both amazing. They did a good job without overextending anywhere. The Maikel Garcia extension is going to end up being
a great move in the long run. I assume the plan is to stay near the top of the Central and then add a part or two at the deadline to fill in the gaps. That is a perfectly acceptable plan with where they are at.
Jacob Milham: From this perspective, no. There may be enough projection for the lineup to improve thanks to moving the walls, or the outfield additions are enough, but after years of outfield struggles I would have hoped to see a more aggressive response.
Jeremy Greco: That’s an interesting way to phrase the question, because how do you define enough? If you define it as “they added the talent necessary to make this a competitive team,” then yeah, they did enough. But if you define it as “added as much talent as they reasonably could have been expected to add and are obvious favorites for a playoff berth,” then no, they didn’t. I tend to see the first option as a C grade and the second option as an A grade. When I was in school, I didn’t feel like I’d done enough if I didn’t get an A, but “Cs get degrees,” as they say, so I suppose I’ll say that yeah, they did enough. They just also should have done more.
Max Rieper: Probably not, but I’m not convinced the “right” move was out there. Sometimes you have to go where the market goes, and not panic and force a move you’ll regret. The Red Sox weren’t going to move Jarren Duran for anything less than Cole Ragans, which should be a non-starter for the Royals. The free agent outfield market sucked. I would have liked Taylor Ward, but they ended up getting more for him than I would have expected. Grabbing Isaac Collins, Lane Thomas, and Starling Marte without having to give up much was probably about the best they could do under the circumstances.
Matthew LaMar: This is an interesting question because I think it can only be really answered after the trade deadline (stick with me). The Royals did an excellent job of efficiently acquiring talent at positions of need, but once again the outfield free agent market was pricey and they weren’t able to swing the big trade they wanted. I think they set themselves up for the latter, banking on a Blake Mitchell bounceback and the lowered acquisition cost for a half season of a difference-making player. But if they don’t go do that, then I think you can definitively say “no” to this question.
Kevin Ruprecht: I am still skeptical of the outfield situation. Jac Caglianone has to take a big leap forward, Isaac Collins needs to sustain his 441-plate-appearance cameo from last year, and one of Lane Thomas or Starling Marte needs to be somewhere around average. It’s a much improved situation compared to last year, but does it get them five extra wins? I’m not sure. The only other thing they could have done is trade Kris Bubic for someone, but it sounded like Bubic-for-Jarren Durran straight-up wasn’t happening.
What is the key to the Royals’ success this season?
Matthew LaMar: It’s Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen, no question. There’s a wide range of composite outcomes for those two. If they both end up as above average offensive players, the lineup becomes so much deeper and so much better. And I think both guys could be really special; Caglianone is poised for a huge season, and Jensen is an underrated talent who could win Rookie of the Year. On the other hand, if they go through growing pains, it’s hard to see the Royals succeed. To put it another way, the Royals are banking on those two as their big “acquisitions” of the year.
Kevin Ruprecht: Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen both breaking out in big ways. If they hit big-time, that should overcome the usual rash of pitcher injuries.
Jacob Milham: It’s not secret: the rotational health. The guys that are in the Opening Day rotation need to take the ball every five days and stay off the IL.
Jeremy Greco: Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone. If at least one of them turns into a star, the Royals are going to do just fine for themselves. If they both turn into stars – a big if, but not remotely impossible – I think they could quickly become the class of the American League. The fact that the Royals had one of the worst offenses in baseball but also had four Silver Slugger finalists is bonkers. That shouldn’t be possible, but that’s how bad the other five hitters were on a nightly basis. Adding some floor to those guys makes this an interesting sleeper team, but if they can add some star power, look out!
Brian Henry: Pitching staff health is probably what I would go with. There is some depth, but if the top end of Ragans and Bubic isn’t healthy it makes the prospect of reaching anything beyond a quick wild card exit start becoming hard to see.
Max Rieper: Yea, its Caglianone and Jensen. And I think there are a lot of reasons to be pretty high on those two. Caglianone had a miserable first year, but his problem was too many groundballs, not too much chasing. That seems like a fixable problem, and should be Alec Zumwalt’s #1 priority. Jensen looks like a polished product that has a good idea what he’s doing at the plate, and should be a contender for Rookie of the Year.
Who or what concerns you the most?
Kevin Ruprecht: Cole Ragans’ health.
Brian Henry: See #2, Cole Ragans’ arm. I am excited and I think this team is pretty good. He changes them if healthy. Bobby is the best players on the team still, but it is hard to win playoff series without an ace or an elite bullpen. The Royals with a healthy Ragans gives Bobby and the other position players a chance to get some cheaper wins by dominating a game. I don’t think they can get to the elite bullpen with where they are at, so Ragans needs to be a force.
Jeremy Greco: For seemingly the 287th year in a row, it’s the outfield. The outfield is clearly better than anything they’ve put on an Opening Day Roster since at least 2022 – when they had Michael A Taylor, Andrew Benintendi, and Kyle Isbel – but probably more like 2016, when they had Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Paulo Orlando, and Jarrod Dyson before they all fell off entirely.
But even as I’ve argued that the combination of players they can try to mix and match gives them a reasonable chance of putting together a competent unit, there are serious questions about every single player currently on the roster, and it’s possible that they are all terrible in one way or another. I feel pretty confident that Jac Cagliaone is going to hit this year, and I feel pretty confident that between all of the other options, they’ll find reasonable choices in center and left for most nights. But there are no guarantees or anything remotely resembling guarantees to be had. So I’m going to be concerned about them until my confidence is rewarded.
Matthew LaMar: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Lugo is 36, and Wacha turns 35 in July. Both saw a decline in fastball velocity and K-BB%, as well as big jumps in xFIP, from 2024 to 2025. A big part of the Royals’ success over the last few years has been being able to reliably get lots of good innings out of their starting pitchers. Lugo and Wacha won’t be effective forever, and I just worry that a decline could be swifter than we think. I’m also worried about Carlos Estevez, but the fact of the matter is that it’s easier to replace 60 innings than 160 innings (times two).
Jacob Milham: Jonathan India. The veteran hasn’t shown improvement this spring and with running mate Michael Massey starting the season on the IL, fans will see more of India to start the season. Whether that is a good or bad thing, I would chance the latter.
Max Rieper: The seams are starting to show on this rotation. Between injuries and age, there are a lot of ways it can start to fall apart. But J.J. Picollo has hedged his bets quite a bit by building a good amount of depth. I do wonder how loyal they will be to a struggling veteran when Ryan Bergert, Luinder Avila, and Stephen Kolek are throwing BBs in Omaha.
Who or what is an underrated X-factor?
Brian Henry: Is this cheating? Stephen Cruz/Luinder Avila are the best chance to add another high strikeout arm to the bullpen and I think that is what it needs. My bet is Avila. For some reason, I think they will have him in the bullpen fairly quickly with either Daniel Lynch IV or Bailey Falter going away, and I think once Avila is in there he stays.
Matthew LaMar: It’s Bobby Witt Jr., which again might seem like a weird answer but stick with me. No other player on the roster has a wider range of potential outcomes than Witt, who could be worth anywhere from 5 to 10 Wins Above Replacement next year. People assume Witt will be good and therefore don’t think of him as an X-factor but there’s a gigantic difference between hitting 30% better than league average like he did in 2025 and hitting nearly 70% better than league average like he did in 2026.
If you force me to not say Witt, I’d go with Isaac Collins. Dude about put up a 13% walk rate and a .370 OBP last year in over 400 plate appearances and I don’t see many people assuming he’ll be a notable factor.
Jacob Milham: With Carlos Estévez’s velo issues, Lucas Erceg is about to be a bigger part of the closing picture. The former Athletics pitcher had a rough year last year, but hopefully bounces back in a high leverage role once again.
Jeremy Greco: Nick Loftin. The guy has shown elite plate discipline at every level and a propensity for getting the most of what little power he has by regularly getting the sweet spot of the bat on the ball and making sure he pulls it in the air. It’s easy to forget that he also has a bit of clutch in him that led him to earn two walk-off hits in the span of a week at one point last year. No, he shouldn’t be getting regular playing time, but if you watched the playoffs last year, the names Leo Rivas, Nathan Lukes, Miguel Rojas, and Kiké Hernandez mean something to you. Winning teams need the 26th man to show up sometimes and Loftin could be that guy for the Royals this year – if they don’t have to overexpose him and he can keep leaning into his strengths.
Kevin Ruprecht: I think the general depth of the team. I like how someone else framed it – generally everyone on the 26 would make a major league roster. The only injury the Royals can’t have is to BWJ, and probably to Garcia at this point.
Max Rieper: The vibes, man. They are, as the kids say, “immaculate.” Royals hitters are riding a high from the World Baseball Classic and this season is starting to feel like a coming-out party for them. Vinnie is a born leader, Salvy is your veteran presence, Bobby is the “kid” star, and Maikel has the red-ass they need to motivate them to victory. As Lou Brown said in “Major League”, “it’s all coming together, Pepper.”
How does this season play out? How many games do the Royals win and how far do they go?
Jeremy Greco: I’m on record as predicting the Royals win 90 games, so I’ll stick with that. I’ll admit it’s a bit of wish-casting, but it’s spring, so it’s the time to do it. And hey, if things look bad early, maybe I’ll hit up the Etsy Witches earlier than the last two weeks of the season this time. If the Royals make the playoffs with Ragans and Bubic healthy and available, I think they could make some serious noise. So I’ll predict them all the way to the ALCS. There, they will lose in heartbreaking fashion to the Mariners, but many of us will be glad for another perennial underdog finally making its first World Series.
Max Rieper: There will be a major injury to the pitching staff. Someone (Avila or Bergert) steps up and shines. Jac Caglianone hits 30 home runs. Carter Jensen wins Rookie of the Year. The Royals make a big trade at the deadline for a bat. 90 wins. Division title. They lose to the Tigers in the ALCS.
Brian Henry: My prediction was 89 wins. That feels right to me and I think it wins the central. Detroit has enough question marks in their offense and bullpen that I think they have some rough stretches keeping them from reaching their potential. I think with some key additions at the trade deadline there is a potential to go to the World Series and lose to the Dodgers, but I think ALCS is a more realistic goal. That is the most optimistic I have been since 2015.
Kevin Ruprecht: I think the Royals do better than last year’s 82-80 performance. I’m thinking about 85 wins. I’m thinking that’ll be enough to squeak into the playoffs, and I think they’ll win the wild card series and bounce in the ALDS.
Matthew LaMar: The Royals could make the playoffs, but I think they’ll be on the outside looking in, whether that’s at 84 games or 87 games. With that being said, I would not be surprised if the Royals made the playoffs. If Caglianone and Jensen are really good, that changes the entire complexion of the team compared to last year.
Jacob Milham: Big optimistic outlook here; 92-70 with a trip to the divisional round. Go Royals!
