Sunday evening is what it’s all about. Two marquee programs battling head-to-head for spot at the Final Four in Indianapolis next week. For UConn, it would be the Huskies’ third trip in the last four years and likely cement Alex Karaban as one of the greatest players in program history. For Duke, it would mark the second-straight Final Four appearance, an impressive feat given the Blue Devils have more or less turned their entire core over since losing Cooper Flagg to the NBA Draft after last year.
For the first time in what feels like forever, UConn is an underdog. The Huskies are 5.5-point underdogs per FanDuel, with moneyline odds set at +172. Head coach Dan Hurley, always looking for an edge, likely relishes the ability to play the “nobody believes in us” card.
And while that might be a little bit of a stretch for a program that has won 16 NCAA tournament games in the last four seasons, there might be some truth to it against a Duke team that boasts a potential National Player of the Year in Cam Boozer and owns the longest current win streak in the country.
So what can UConn do to beat the No. 1 overall seed and punch their ticket to Indianapolis? Here are three keys for the Huskies to pull off the “upset” in Washington D.C.
Compete on the glass
Much like Friday night, UConn probably will not win the battle of the boards. like Michigan State, Duke is an elite rebounding team that ranks inside the top 10 in offensive rebounding prcentage and limiting opposing offensive boards on the defensive end. With forces like Boozer, Patrick Ngongba and Malik Sarr, the Blue Devils may dominate the glass. But UConn can counteract that by sending everyone to the rim like it did Friday night, where Silas Demary Jr., Braylon Mullins and Karaban all had three or more rebounds. Tarris Reed Jr. should be able to battle with Boozer on the glass, but if the rest of the Huskies’ lineup can crash the boards, it will help negate what could be a massive rebounding advantage for the Blue Devils.
Contain Cam Boozer
Boozer has a real chance at being the second-straight Blue Devil to go No. 1 overall in this year’s NBA Draft. He’s an absolute force that’s averaging 22.4 points and 10.3 rebounds per game and is the centerpiece of this Duke team on both ends. In order for UConn to have more than a puncher’s chance, the Huskies will need Reed — and for short stretches, Eric Reibe — to defend Boozer one-on-one without getting into foul trouble. It’s a tough ask for anyone agains Boozer, who loves to utilize shot fakes and create contact in the post.
“[I need to] be disciplined, stay long, and make him stay over the length. Make it as difficult as possible for him to score in the post,” Reed said.
It’s easier said than done, but if Reed can stay on the floor, the Huskies have a shot at keeping Boozer contained, holding their own on the glass and snagging a few extra possessions.
Defend effectively
UConn’s defense is up to ninth nationally per KenPom, but will have their work cut out for them against a Duke offense that ranks sixth overall in offensive efficiency. Unlike Michigan State, which featured an elite distributor in Jeremy Fears and more of a willingness to pass the rock, Duke relies more on its individual talent to beat defenders one-on-one. This means that Solo Ball and Braylon Mullins, two Huskies who have struggled defensively, may get hunted by the backcourt of Isaiah Evans, Dame Sarr and Caleb Foster. If they do get beat, Reed and Karaban may have to help contest at the rim.
While the “Duke whistle” may or may not be real, UConn will have to avoid foul trouble by its stars at all costs. Any time that the likes of Mullins, Ball, Karaban or Reed are off the floor likely lower the Huskies’ chances of winning, and extra fouls lead to more free throws for Duke, which shoots nearly 73 percent from the stripe. If UConn can stay out of foul trouble but impose its will in the paint, where the Blue Devils like to do most of their damage, they will have a real shot at making to Indianapolis.
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