When the Steelers’ schedule came out, you’d have been forgiven if you saw this Colts game wedged in between a stretch that includes two Bengals games, the Packers, and the Chargers, and thought it would give the team a bit of respite. You’d have been silly, considering the Colts beat the Steelers just a year ago, but that’s how little the NFL community thought of the Colts heading into the season.
Much of that Colts skepticism revolved around a middling defense and what was perceived as an even worse
quarterback situation: a camp battle between the thus far disappointing Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones, a quarterback with a less-than-stellar reputation and a history of injuries.
Richardson, though athletically gifted, came into the league with little starting experience and questions about his accuracy. Those issues persist, while Richardson has also struggled with injuries and questions about his leadership abilities.
Jones has been an oft-criticized figure since the night he was drafted. Draftniks believe he was overdrafted compared to his skill level, and while he is a sneaky gifted runner, his accuracy, arm strength, and ability to handle pressure have all been questionable. The Giants were mostly bad while he was there, save for a lone playoff appearance in 2022, and some serious injuries to his neck and knee in 2023 had many wondering if his best days were behind him.
Colts fans and media were mostly skeptical once Jones was named the Week 1 starter.
What a difference a couple of months makes, huh? But it isn’t just the quarterbacks. While the middling defense I mentioned earlier is still flawed, people underestimated how many tricks former Bengals DC Lou Anarumo still had up his sleeve. The Colts’ defense can still be had, but they are a much more functional group than they were a year ago, when they were bottom-10 in rushing, passing, and points allowed.
Presently, the Colts are 7-1, and the surprise of the NFL season. Skeptics will question Indianapolis’ schedule thus far. They’re one loss cam to the Rams, while their victories have come against the Dolphins, Titans (twice), Raiders, Cardinals, an injured Chargers squad, and the Broncos via a field goal as time expired to give the Colts a one-point lead.
There’s a little bit of “yeah, but who have you beat?” to Indianapolis’ hot start. Upcoming games against the Chiefs, Seahawks, and the stout defense of the Texans (twice) will put Indianapolis’ title hopes and powerful offense to the test.
But regardless of whether you view the Colts as a paper tiger or not, this will not be an easy match-up for the Steelers. At least for the version of this team we’ve seen since the bye.
What to expect from the Colts’ offense
Rushing YPG: 134.4 (6th)
Passing YPG: 250.9 (6th)
PPG: 33.8 (1st)
RP: To further understand what the Colts do well and why they have been such a surprising success to start the year, I think we need to understand a few misconceptions that were widely held about the team before the season.
- The offensive line would regress and struggle to gel with the departures of center Ryan Kelly and guard Will Fries in Free Agency.
- Daniel Jones is a catastrophic quarterback.
- They forgot about J. (Jonathan Taylor)
- Shane Steichen didn’t have it anymore as a playcaller.
The offensive line
The idea that the Colts’ offensive line would take a step back this year made sense prior to the season. Offensive lines tend to take time to gel. The members of a line need to not only learn their given assignments within the offensive scheme, but they also need to build chemistry with each other — and their backfield — to function efficiently. With Kelly and Fries both signing with the Vikings, Indianapolis was losing two starters from the middle of their line.
What all of us failed to account for was that Indianapolis planned ahead for this. In the 2024 draft, the Colts made two picks that they seem to have it on, and that set them up to say goodbye to two of their starters, while giving those draft picks a year to be integrated into their system.
The first of those is a player many Yinzers should be familiar with, not only because Ryland wrote up an excellent draft profile, but because he played in Accrisure Stadium with the Pitt Panthers: Matt Goncalves. A tackle in college, the Colts have kicked him inside to right guard.
And it seems he’s taking to the change well.
If you follow our draft coverage, then you might also be vaguely familiar with the Colts’ 4th-round pick from 2024, Tanor Bortolini, one of my 2024 draft gems. He’s part of what is turning out to be quite the center class with five NFL starters (Bortolini, Zach Frazier, Graham Barton, Cooper Beebee, and Jalen Sundell), another being played at guard (Jackson Powers-Johnson), and three listed as the second center on their team’s depth chart (Jacob Monk, Hunter Nourzad, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger).
Bortolini was one of the most athletic interior line prospects of the draft. Though he was considered to have short arms and a deficiency in power, he was one of the most fluid and natural movers in the class. That makes him a perfect fit for the Colts’ zone-heavy offense.
But it isn’t just these young Colts’ individual performances that are impressive. When working together, these two have been a lethal combination.
Of course, if you watch the entire line in these clips, you remember the Colts already had three above-average starters in future Hall of Fame guard Quenton Nelson, and tackles Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith. On the season, the Colts are first in EPA added per pass (+0.26) and per rush (+0.17) per Next Gen Stats. That’s in no small part thanks to this line, which PFF has graded as the fourth-best in both run blocking and pass blocking.
Here’s Bortolini explaining the play above, and explaining how the All-Pro Nelson’s ability to make that difficult block is crucial to the play’s success.
Daniel Jones is… fine?
Listen, I’m not here to sell you on the Jones MVP odds. If we’re ranking quarterbacks in the league, I’m not elevating him into my top ten. What I am recognizing, however, is that Jones IS playing really well within the Colts system. When I evaluate where Jones is as a passer, I find him similar to 2023 Brock Purdy. Not in skillset necessarily, but both are quarterbacks who have proven able to run a high-powered, efficient offense with all the right pieces around them: a stellar line, several playmaking pass catchers, an All-Pro running back, and a wiz of a playcaller blending it all together.
During his career, Jones has been mainly criticized for his erratic he can become under pressure. As injuries piled up, concerns about his arm strength — which was never one of his calling cards to begin with — grew. Now, with an elite offensive line, and two years removed from the neck injury that sapped so much of the zip on his ball from 2024, Jones is silencing all of his doubters.
Look what time in the pocket and some skilled playmakers can do for a quarterback. Here he is with a deep shot to rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who leads all tight ends with 492 yards and is fifth in receptions with 37.
Having weapons like this has given Jones confidence to let it rip, even under pressure.
And into tight windows.
You’ll notice number 14 making the catch in the play above. That’s Alec Pierce, a player Steelers fans will need to keep an eye out for. The Colts primarily have Pierce in a deep-threat role, where he can make big plays or help open things up underneath for his teammates. He’s averaging 21.4 yards per catch on 18 catches this season, and he’s quietly become one of the league’s best in this role. That could be setting him up for a big payday this offseason.
And while Warren and Pierce are dangerous, the Colts aren’t done with the offensive firepower.
Michael Pittman leads the team in catches (43) and receiving touchdowns (6), and trails only Warren in receiving yardage (446).
Last but not least, as if that wasn’t enough weaponry at Jones’ disposal, there is also speedy slot threat Josh Downs to contend with.
Downs can beat you deep…
But where the Colts like to feature him is in the short to intermediate.
And when all else fails, don’t forget that Jones is a threat with his legs, even if he doesn’t put up gaudy stats as a runner.
All this is to say, when you give Jones an array of playmakers, and some smart design — more on that later — he is more than adequate managing the game and playing point guard.
That isn’t to say he still doesn’t have some flaws in his game. He’s seeing the field incredibly well overall, but there are still lapses, as noted by one of my favorite football film follows, Matt Waldman, in this breakdown.
Now, if only the Steelers could get some positive play out of their safeties.
Jonathan Taylor is that dude
I blame it on the fantasy footballifcation of many of our brains, but for some reason, there was not a lot of faith or buzz around Jonathan Taylor heading into this season.
Perhaps this was because of the previously mentioned concerns about the departures of Kelly and Fries. Or maybe it was concerns that Daniels Jones would not be able to do enough as a passer to stop defenses from selling out to stop the run. Maybe there was concern that the last time Taylor had over 300 carries, like he did last year, they were followed by two injury-plagued years with sub-1,000-yard production.
Taylor did have quite the bounce back, a year ago, finishing fourth in rushing (1,431). However, the Colts were mediocre (8-9), and Taylor’s resurgence was outshone by dominant performances from Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, and breakout years by the running backs who sandwiched him in yardage, Bijan Robinson (1,456) and Jahmyr Gibbs (1,412).
Whatever the reason, it felt like Taylor was in the “also-ran” category when top backs were discussed in NFL media this summer.
But he is still very much a dangerous runner.
Taylor has great vision, a powerful body (226 pounds) that not only gives him superb contact balance, but also gets up to top gear like few others in the NFL.
Taylor is having a monster season thus far, leading the league with 850 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. He’s having one of those seasons where you can see his teammates are fired up by his play. They clearly want to help him hit some historic numbers, and they have the players with the right mindset to do so.
Here’s leading receiver Pittman blocking his kiester off for JT.
The Steelers’ run defense has been boom or bust this season, and they cannot afford to be out of position, take a bad angle, or offer up a weak attempted arm tackle. Taylor will make them pay if they come anything less than correct.
Rumors of Shane Steichen’s demise have been exaggerated
Colts head coach and offensive playcaller Shane Steichen was a hot name on the coaching carousel after he helped design the offense that helped the Eagles maximize the talents of quarterback Jalen Hurts. That Eagles team finished top-10 in several categories, including rushing yards per game, passing yards per game, and points per game, while limiting turnovers.
However, in the years since he got to Indianapolis, the Colts have struggled to reach those same heights, despite having a talented line and a diverse set of offensive skill players. His inability to unlock Richardson the same way he had Hurts was seen as a professional failing.
And yet, this year, with competent quarterback play, we’ve seen that he can still scheme up a high-powered offense.
What I love about Steichen’s playcalling is how he can set his playmakers up for success. Look at this whip round he draws up for Downs, using pre-snap motion and some natural picks by the routes he has the other receivers run.
He’s also used the threat of the Colts’ running attack to his advantage. The Colts use play action at the highest rate in the league (35.8%), slightly more than once every three plays. Jones leads the league in passing yards off of play action (808) and is ninth among qualified passers in completion percentage on these throws (72.6%). The threat of Taylor running the ball and how effective the Colts are on play action is going to put the Steelers’ linebackers in a bind all day.
Steichen knows this and even builds in play-action fakes into some of his run designs.
And Steichen knows how to attack the tendencies of his opponents. Listen to this excellent breakdown of how Steichen saw something in the Chargers-Dolphins game that he was able to exploit, using one of the throws that we highlighted earlier. Excellent breakdown and analysis here.
The Colts compare favorably to the Packers’ offense that just terrorized Pittsburgh in the second half last Sunday Night. Unless Teryl Austin and the defense have found a lot of answers in the week since, I’m concerned it will be a long Sunday for us fans of the black and gold.
What to expect from the Colts’ defense
Rushing YPG Allowed: 93.1 (8th)
Passing YPG Allowed: 252 (29th)
PPG Allowed: 19.3 (6th)
RB: The Colts’ defense is an interesting matchup as it could very well be the deciding factor in how close Sunday’s game is. Currently a top-10 scoring defense, Indianapolis is clearly doing some things right, but it remains a very beatable defense.
One of the big changes Indianapolis made this offseason was swapping defensive coordinators. Out was Gus Bradley, whose scheme was widely regarded as one of the more straightforward in the league, with its focus on cover-3, and in was a familiar foe to Steeler fans in Lou Anarumo.
Anarumo, of course, was the longtime defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. He was well-respected throughout the league, but eventually was let go after a string of disappointing seasons for his group. Anarumo seems like he was far from the problem, given the state of the Bengals’ defense without him, and he’s returned to form in some ways with the Colts.
“Mad scientist” is a term you’ll see mentioned a lot with Anarumo. He’s not afraid to throw the kitchen sink at opposing offenses. The Colts rotate coverages a lot, and they run through a wide variety of looks with plenty of cover-2 and -4 along with the usual single-high. On the D-line, they run simulated pressures, bizarre blitz packages, and plenty of unorthodox fronts.
If you want an idea of Anarumo’s try-anything mindset, here’s the Colts blitzing a wide receiver against the Cardinals.
Be prepared for some weirdness on Sunday afternoon.
Up front, the Colts use a stacked box (eight-plus defenders) at the second-lowest rate in the league (12%) per NFL Pro (for reference, the Pittsburgh defense sits at 30.6%). They don’t have an elite group, but it’s one of the more underrated in the NFL, headlined by a great defensive tackle duo in three-time Pro-Bowler DeForest Buckner and a high-end run stopper in Grover Stewart.
On the edges are two former first-rounders in Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu. Neither has broken out in a big way, but they have flashes.
However, despite having just the 22nd-highest blitz rate (23.4%) in the NFL, the Colts are second-best in pressure rate (39.9%) per NFL Pro. Some of that is due to individual wins, and plenty is also due to Anarumo’s fronts, which can put his players in positions to succeed.
While the Colts’ D-line has largely been great this season – against both the run and the pass – I will add that you can succeed by running right at their funkier looks from time to time. Especially considering Anarumo doesn’t like to stack the box much, Pittsburgh’s jumbo package on offense could force some adjustments from Indianapolis.
Behind the defensive line, however, it gets a little less inspiring. Linebackers Germaine Pratt and Zaire Franklin are serviceable starters who play the run well, but coverage is a glaring weakness. In the games I watched, there was often a lot of open space between the linebackers and safeties.
And as Steeler fans would know, Pratt has been an easy target for opposing quarterbacks since his time with the Bengals. And a defense like Anarumo’s, with lots of disguises and mugs, can make its linebacker coverage responsibilities more difficult due to how much ground there is to cover.
In the secondary, the Colts have dealt with injuries, namely with free agent addition Charvarius Ward, currently on injured reserve (Jaylon Jones could be returning from IR this week). Safety Cam Bynum and slot corner Kenny Moore II remain good players, but this group looks the part of the 29th in the league.
Watching the all-22, I noticed some really poor zone discipline. Justin Herbert toasted Indianapolis for 420 yards in Week 7, and even Cam Ward and a struggling Titans offense saw repeated success on deep and intermediate routes in Week 8.
Especially on slightly longer-developing plays, receivers tend to pop open all over the field. The injuries have taken their toll not just talent-wise, but also with communication on the back end of the Colts defense — especially considering the intricacies of the scheme.
However, the Colts have countered by playing opportunistic football in coverage. They’re second in the NFL in team interceptions this year with 10. They also don’t lack physicality or effort.
Still, I think the Steelers’ strategy to beat the Colts’ defense should include pushing the ball downfield more to take advantage of Indianapolis’ secondary lapses. Of course, establishing the run game and jumbo package (even if Isaac Seumalo misses the game) will also be important.
Another angle to watch is injuries: The Colts enter Week 9 with a long report, with starters Nick Cross (safety), Kenny Moore II (cornerback), and Grover Stewart (defensive tackle) all not participating as of Wednesday.
On this side of the ball, it’s a winnable matchup for the Steelers, even if the Colts still have plenty of defensive talent. Sunday could certainly be a shootout at Acrisure Stadium.
