It wasn’t the eventful, splashy, or exciting free agency people had hoped it would be for the Detroit Lions. A three-year, $25 million deal for Cade Mays headlined a bunch of other short-term solutions while long-term fits marinate. But even if Detroit’s approach to free agency left you wanting more, there’s still time for them to add talent and contributors, namely with their two picks in the top-50 selections of this year’s NFL Draft.
The Lions’ roster already had top-end talent at a number of positions
entering the offseason, including Penei Sewell and Aidan Hutchinson, but after the (messy?) exit of Taylor Decker and a cost-effective addition in DJ Wonnum, it’s more than fair to consider the sides opposite Sewell and Hutchinson as the team’s top two needs heading into next month’s draft.
Let’s address the tough reality Detroit could face on Day 1 of the draft: they might need to move up to get their guy at one of those positions, and that’s something Brad Holmes has not been shy about doing whatsoever.
With the Lions picking at No. 17, they’re on the outside looking in at the chance of landing one of those blue-chip prospects at offensive tackle, be it Miami’s Francis Mauigoa or Utah’s Spencer Fano. Even Clemson’s Blake Miller or Georgia’s Monroe Freeling could be off the board by the time Detroit’s on the clock—of the 15 teams selecting ahead of Detroit (the New York Jets pick twice at No. 2 and 16), at least five of those teams could easily justify selecting an offensive tackle (Arizona, Tennessee, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Los Angeles Rams), but that’s not including the number of teams behind the Lions who could be looking to move up for the top OT on their respective boards.
It’s the same story at defensive end. Sitting in the middle of the first round, Detroit risks watching the top prospects disappear—Texas Tech’s David Bailey and Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. are both strong bets to go in the top-10 picks—and that leaves the Lions to choose from the second tier of edge rushers.
Historically speaking, offensive tackle and defensive end have been two of the most frequently targeted positions in the first round. Since 2016, 43 offensive tackles and 51 defensive ends have been selected, accounting for roughly 29% of all first-round picks over that span. That trend holds at the very top of the draft as well. Since 2016, 14 offensive tackles and 15 defensive ends have been taken within the top 10—again, making up about 29% of those premium selections.
So if Detroit finds itself sold on one of those players at a premium position, it may need to move up. Here’s a look at comparable trades from the past 10 drafts, grouped by how aggressive the move was, to get a sense of what it might cost the Lions to move up in the first round.
Based on similar trades over the past decade, moving from No. 17 into the top 10 likely costs Detroit a second-round pick or future capital—while smaller jumps can be made far more affordably. Here’s what trades from the last 10 NFL drafts suggest the Lions will have to pay to move up in the first round later this month.
A big swing
More often than not, a team looking to move up this much is looking to draft their next franchise quarterback, but that’s not always the case. Take, for example, when the Arizona Cardinals moved up from No. 12 to No. 6 in the 2023 NFL Draft to land OT Paris Johnson Jr.—you might remember this one: the Lions landed picks No. 12, 34, and 168, while the Cardinals moved up to No. 6 and also received pick No. 81.
But with the Lions picking in the late-teens, something like the 2016 trade between the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans might be more comparable to what it would take to get inside the top-10. Cleveland dealt the No. 8 and No. 176 overall picks to Tennessee, moving back to No. 15 while acquiring the 76th selection and a 2017 second-round pick.
Getting inside the top-10 might be what it takes to get the top OT or DE on their board, and without a third-round pick in this year’s draft, it might take Holmes dipping into his future coffers to grease the wheels.
A sizable jump
But maybe Detroit can wait out the board and not have to make such a drastic move. Maybe Francis Mauigoa, Spencer Fano, or Monroe Freeling is still there after Kansas City picks at No. 9. Trading up into this range, historically, hasn’t cost teams an arm and a leg.
In a 2018 draft-day deal, the then Oakland Raiders traded down from No. 10 to No. 15 with Arizona, picking up the 79th and 152nd picks from the Cardinals along the way. In 2019, Denver dealt the 10th overall pick to Pittsburgh, moving all the way back to No. 20 while also acquiring Pittsburgh’s 52nd pick and an additional third-round selection in 2020. Would Holmes be willing to simply part with No. 17 and No. 50 to move up and get their guy? In other words, can the Lions afford to trade what could be a viable contributor to their team this season just to shore up their offensive line? Would it be worth it to finally get that player opposite of Hutchinson?
A modest move
Here may be the sweet spot for the Lions in this year’s draft. If one of their prospects with a first-round grade makes it into the teens, Holmes has the ammo—and track record—to make a subtle move up the board to ensure they walk out of Day 1 with their guy.
In a 2024 trade, the Steelers traded up from No. 17 to No. 14 with the New England Patriots, sweetening it with the 120th pick to get the deal across the finish line. In 2023, New Orleans moved up from No. 16 to No. 11 in a deal with Washington, sending along the 98th and 120th overall picks.
Detroit has both picks 118 and 128 (from the trade with Houston for David Montgomery), so one—or both of those—should be more than enough for the Lions to move up at least a few spots.
Final thoughts
What’s consistent among many of these trades over the past 10 years is a third-round selection, something the Lions don’t have after trading both of their 2026 third-round picks to move up and select Isaac TeSlaa in 2025. But maybe it might not be necessary for Detroit to move up. After all, they did select Decker with the No. 16 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, and they nabbed Frank Ragnow with pick No. 20 in 2018.
If history is any guide, the Lions don’t need to be reckless to land impact talent—but if Holmes believes there’s a true difference-maker at offensive tackle or defensive end, the price to move up may be more costly than some fans are comfortable with. With Holmes at the helm, the question isn’t whether Detroit can move up, it’s how much they’ll be willing to sacrifice to get their guy.
