Two weeks in, and another victory in the books, the Seahawks are getting ready to hit the road one more time to face off against the Washington Commanders. Without Sam Darnold, the reigning and defending Super Bowl Champions are 2-0 with the best backup quarterback in the league, Drew Lock. With Jayden Daniels dislocating his elbow, the Commanders will be trotting out their own veteran backup quarterback, Marcus Mariota. How well will the Seahawks do versus the other Washington? Let’s take a look.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are ranked fifth in total DVOA, 15th in offensive DVOA, second in defensive DVOA, and 15th special teams DVOA. Last week, they were ranked ninth overall, fifth in defense, 10th in offense, and fourth in special teams. Overall, they got better except for special teams. I expect that to be adjusted and fixed.
Per Sumer Sports, they are 10th in offensive EPA per play and offensive total EPA, and fourth in defensive EPA per play and defensive total EPA. Last week, the Seahawks were ranked 14th in offensive total EPA and EPA per play and 11th in defensive total EPA and 12th in defensive EPA per play. Another jump up in ranking.
Through two weeks, the Seahawks are averaging 22 points a game, and are holding opponents to a second-best 8.5 points per game. They are second in the league inpoint differential at +27, with the margin of victory averaging 13.5 points.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders are the 28th ranked team in total DVOA, 22nd in offensive DVOA, 30th in defensive DVOA, and 28th in special teams DVOA. There is no doubt that the Commanders are struggling, and with now losing Daniels and having to start Mariota, the teams struggles will likely continue.
On the EPA side of things, the Commanders rank 11th in offensive EPA per play and total offensive EPA and are 26th in defensive EPA per play and total defensive EPA. While close to the Seahawks on offensive efficiency, their defense is what is letting them down.
The last two weeks, the Commanders are averaging 21 points per game and allowing opponents an average of 30.5 points per game. They are 27th in the league in point differential at -19, with an average margin of defeat at 9.5 points.
Calculating the Score
Seahawks 22 + Commanders opponents 30.5 (lets round that up to 31 for a whole number) = 53/2= 26.5, which we will round up to 27 points.
Commanders 21 + Sea opponents 8.5 (which we will round up to 9) = 30 / 2 = 15 Points.
Initial score prediction: 27 – 15, Seahawks win
But, the margin of victory for the Seahawks is 13.5 points, so if we round that to 14 points, 15-2= 13
Final Score Prediction: 27-13
I go more into detail about the statistical predictions for players in this weeks episode of Eye On The Numbers on The Hawks Eye Podcast here:
What do you think will be the final score? Who do you think will be a key contributor in this game? Discuss down below, and as always, go Hawks!
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