We don’t yet have word on the severity of the hamstring injury suffered by Cincinnati Reds closer Emilio Pagan last night. What we do know, though, is what we all saw – and what we saw was a man who’d already once dealt with a sore hamstring this year writhing in pain after delivering just one pitch.
Typically when you need the cart to come take you off the field, you’re going to be out for awhile. Typically when the manager says “he’s certainly going to be an IL,” you’re going to land on the injured
list. All that remains right now is whether it’s a 15-day IL stint or if there’s enough obvious damage there that Pagan will be placed right on the 60-day IL as he recovers.
That’s the current news facing the team’s bullpen. The scenario around the news isn’t a whole lot better at the moment.
Among MLB units, the 5.36 xERA by the Reds bullpen ranks dead last, to date. The group’s 6.22 BB/9 ranks dead last, too. They play their home games in perhaps the single most homer-friendly park in the game over the last decade, yet their collective 36.1% groundball rate ranks 4th lowest. All that rolled together makes for a 5.18 FIP, a mark that’s the 3rd worst in the league right now.
And all that came with Pagan as a part of the group.
How the Reds address things will depend on the severity of the diagnosis, obviously, but the severity of the diagnosis also will open up the avenues in which they can make moves. If Pagan is placed simply on the 15-day IL, both Zach Maxwell is on the 40-man roster and can yo-yo back to the active roster for seemingly the 10th time in the last five minutes. Kyle Nicolas is down at AAA right now and on the 40-man roster, and the two could both seemingly be brought back to deepen the bullpen if the Reds go ahead and option Chase Petty (since Nick Lodolo is expected to be recalled later this week to fill Petty’s spot in the rotation).
That adds depth and does so with seamless roster shuffling. The thing is, there are a pair of relievers down at AAA who aren’t currently on the roster who have looked a whole lot more impressive there than the likes of Maxwell, Nicolas, or even Luis Mey (who is already on the active roster thanks to other injuries).
Both Lyon Richardson and Tejay Antone, the latter coming off his third Tommy John surgery, have put up some pretty sparkling lines for the Bats.
Richardson, a former 2nd round pick who at times has looked electric at the big league level, owns a 1.04 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across 11 appearances, firing 17.1 IP with an impressive 18/6 K/BB. He was designated for assignment back in December when the Reds acquired Dane Myers and needed a 40-man roster spot, but after clearing waivers and sticking with the organization he’s done exactly what you’d hoped he’d do in that scenario by getting right back to work showing he belongs back in the big leagues.
“Getting right back to work” is something that’s never been the question with Antone as he has dealt with debilitating injuries repeatedly and, every single time, has jumped right back into the grunt work required to overcome them. Pitching with his fourth right elbow, Captain Hook has revamped his arsenal and yielded just 3 ER (and zero dingers) in 12.0 IP so far this year, boasting a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while boasting a 15/6 K/BB. All that while pitching in the same offensive environment that has seen Rece Hinds, Noelvi Marte, et al post cartoonish batting lines so far for Louisville.
If Pagan is placed on the 60-day IL, that opens up one roster spot for one of Richardson or Antone’s return. The Reds are also expecting lefty Caleb Ferguson’s return from the 15-day IL quite soon, as he’s already thrown a pair of rehab outings with AA Chattanooga and may need just two more before being activated. So, there are legitimate reinforcements that are close, it just depends on how many roster gymnastics Nick Krall and Co. want to go through to reassemble their ‘pen.
That lays out the roster issue, but it doesn’t address the hierarchy. Who now steps into the closer’s role remains to be seen, whether it’s simply bumping guys up a rung on the depth chart or keeping the high-leverage guys where they are and promoting a wholly inexperienced reliever to a role that many believe is less important than key 7th and 8th inning spots.
The reality is that the bullpen needed help, needed work, and probably needed a shuffle given their poor performance before Pagan’s injury. Now that it looks like he’ll be sidelined for awhile, it’s going to force the Reds hand. All that remains to be seen is just how thorough the shakeup becomes.
