I will always begin with a mea culpa. If there is anything I detest in analysts and commentators is a lack of intellectual honesty. I was fully on board when the Astros hired Joe Espada as manager and Dana Brown as general manager. Saying anything otherwise would be a lie. We knew more about Espada when he was hired. He had been here. He was the heir apparent. Keeping the train moving down the tracks seemed like the right direction to go.
Moreover, he was well liked within the organization by the players,
coaches, and executives. So, it was easier to get on board with him than it was with Brown, but managers are always on the front lines. It is easier to cut bait from them than it is for general managers. However, Jim Crane has largely already done that. He did not offer either a contract extension beyond this season. So, both are dead men walking so to speak.
The debate on Espada comes down to how culpable you think he is, On the one hand, you could credibly claim that he was given a flawed roster and never had a realistic chance of making it work. At least, that is what the early returns would say. You could also claim that some of his decisions (particularly pitching decisions) have contributed to the losses and the injuries.
For me, I try to separate decisions and decision making into two categories. There is first guessing and second guessing. All fans second guess. In football they call it Monday morning quarterbacking. A play didn’t work and suddenly everyone knew it was wrong and blasts the coach, players, executives, et al. Second guessing is not particularly helpful. What we want is first guessing. First guessing is when we question decisions BEFORE we see what happens.
There have been a number of bullpen decisions throughout the season I have first guessed. Usually it involves pitching a pitcher an inning longer than he should go. That has usually resulted in multiple runs. It obviously has led to a loss or two, but more importantly has contributed to the shuttle between Sugar Land and Houston. Guys have inflated numbers and everyone feels generally worse about the situation. Is Espada in a tough spot? Of course he is. That is what makes this decision hard.
There are multiple examples from recent Astros history and distant Astros history on both sides of the ledger. This very manager started 2024 12-24 and ended up winning the AL West. On the other hand, we could go back to 2004 when the late Phil Garner took over for the late Jimy Williams and brought the team back from the abyss and to the NLCS. Garner famously rallied them from 15-30 the very next season. No one is throwing in the towel yet, but this is not a team losing close games to tough opponents. They are getting their doors blown off by the dregs.
So, the Espada question is very simple. Does he have a better chance of turning this around than Omar Lopez? There are positives and negatives on both sides. Usually, jumping ship midseason is not a recipe for success. It is usually a white flag. However, one of the reasons you hired is Espada is that you thought he might be a good manager someday. He was a good bench coach and everyone liked him and thought he was capable. Lopez just guided Venezuela to a win in the WBC. He is well liked and looks like he might be capable. Is he? Letting Espada go sooner rather than later will help answer that question. It could also very well be giving up on 2026.
The Dana Brown question is complicated. He is largely responsible for this roster, so the holes are that much more glaring. However, when he was brought in, he was brought in primarily because he demonstrated a scouting acumen in Toronto and Atlanta. Has he made the farm system better? That is a much more challenging question to answer. Brice Matthews was his first draft pick and he has made it to the big leagues, but he has had limited success.
What complicates the decision is more a complication of timing. The amateur draft is coming in June. Do you want to jettison your general manager right before the draft and leave your team rudderless? In July the trade deadline comes. This team will be active one way or another at the trade deadline. The question comes down to whether you trust him to make the right trades and make the right draft picks before you inevitably let him go.
That’s the crux of this whole thing. They are out of time. Whether you cut the chord now or wait until after the season, the betting odds are against them coming back in 2027. So, we get to the point where we have to ask: are you better off waiting until after the season to move on or would it be better to do it now and rip the band-aid off? Personally, I don’t give Espada too much longer. I thought he was the right hire and I’ll stand by that, but situations change and he was not built for this. He is a good guy to keep the engine running and let the car drive itself. He is not a guy that can push a bunch of buttons to create magic.
Lopez is an intriguing possibility. Who knows what WBC success has to do with MLB success. A sinking ship is a low pressure environment for him to show what he can do. What’s the worst that can happen? If the club spirals further you have your answer from him and you can hit the reset button on 2027. The Brown question is the harder one. His deals and the draft will have more of an impact long-term than anything Espada does. So, you have to ask yourself whether you want him making those calls or if you want to start the process now of finding the next long-term architect. What do you think?
