With a little tweak to the information available to this feature, I don’t always have final data at the time I’m writing. A hat tip and a thank you to Al who has taken on a little more work in helping me produce this by cleaning up the numbers in the morning. Unfortunately, that doesn’t always leave me space to contextualize the data as it comes out. I know historically some will wonder about this score or that one and how they stack up. Historically I’ve only run top and bottom WPA game scores at the end
of the year, but this year there have been these changes and a flurry of significant games in June.
The month of June produced 3 of the current top 10 positive scores, including number 2 overall (and 5 of the top 12). On the negative side, the month produced four of the top 10. It was a wild month and if the July 1 game was any indication, the unexpected continues to be the normal. While that game was actually quite dull from a WPA standpoint, it was an outlier of a whole other kind. One of the highest offensive outputs in the history of the organization. I’m sure there is much, much more to come. Though you’ll see that the bar for including into the top 10 positive scores has become quite high.
Let’s start with the bad news and get that out of the way.
Bottom 10 WPA Game scores:
- Jacob Webb on April 5 (-.581) The Cubs led 4-3 over the Guardians after Ian Happ hit a solo homer in the top of the eighth. Jacob Webb took the ball to start the eighth. He got the first out of the inning but the allowed a homer, single, walk and another single before being lifted with the Cubs trailing 5-4. They wound up losing 6-5.
- Jacob Webb on June 20 (-.576) The Cubs led 5-3 over the Blue Jays after seven. Caleb Thielbar started the bottom of the eighth after allowing a walk and a single. Webb allowed single, single, strikeout, homer before Ethan Roberts came in to get the final out, the Cubs losing 8-5.
- Ryan Rolison on May 17 (-.556) Rolison worked the bottom of the 10th inning, trying to earn a save with the Cubs leading 8-7 against the White Sox. The first batter sacrificed the runner to third which didn’t end up matter as the White Sox got a walk-off homer.
- Alex Bregman on June 7 (-.545). Bregman grounded out leading off the second, Cubs down 1-0 against the Giants. Bregman struck out leading off the fourth (1-1). With runners on first and third, no outs Bregman lined into a double play (1-1). With the Giants leading 2-1 in the 10th, Alex Bregman batted with runner on third and popped out.
- Hoby Milner on May 6 (-.530). Milner came into the game in the top of the ninth with the Cubs leading the Reds 4-3. He inherited runners on first and second no outs. The sequence went sacrifice bunt (all runners safe), strikeout, single, sacrifice fly, ground out. The Reds led 6-4 heading to the bottom of the ninth. Pete Crow-Armstrong homered to tie it in the bottom of the ninth. Milner walked the first batter in the 10th before departing. The Cubs did go on to win 7-6.
- Caleb Thielbar on June 15 (-.508). The Cubs were leading the Rockies 2-1 in the eighth when Milner entered with a runner on first and no outs. The sequence went strikeout, walk, fly out, homer, strike out. The Cubs were trailing 4-2 heading to the bottom of the eighth. The Cubs scored one in the eighth and two in the ninth to win 5-4.
- Jacob Webb on June 10 (-.453). The Cubs were leading 1-0 in the eighth when Webb was summoned. The sequence went fly out, single, homer, strikeout, single, line out. Happ did tie it at two with a homer in the ninth, but the Rockies walked the Cubs off 3-2.
- Seiya Suzuki on April 11 (-.440). Seiya did not start this game. Suzuki had a pinch hit single in the sixth with one out, Pirates leading 3-1. Fly out with a runner on first and one out, Cubs trailing 3-2. Game tied 3-3 in the 10th, strikeout leading off. Pirates up 4-3 in the 11th. Seiya fouled out with the potential tying run on third to end the game.
- Ethan Roberts on June 28 (-.408). Cubs were leading 4-1 when Roberts entered. Brewers had single, walk, single to cut it to 4-2 when Ethan was pulled. Cubs did go on to win 4-3.
- Phil Maton on May 17 (-.406). This game was so bad, it got the Cubs twice. Maton came into the game with the score tied and one out. His sequence was ground out, walk, single, homer, line out. He entered 4-4, left losing 7-4.
An unbelievably fortunate 10 in that the Cubs won three of these games and the seven ones that contributed only contributed to six losses. To go 3-6 in your 10 worst performances is really good. (Note that there are only nine decisions in the 10 games because the May 17 game is on this list twice.)
Top 10(12) WPA Game scores:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong on June 6 (.737). Flied out in the first (0-0). Infield single in the third (0-0). Homer in the sixth to tie it at one. Two out single in the seventh (1-1). Homer in the ninth to tie it at two. Cubs walked it off in 10 against the Giants.
- Michael Busch on May 5 (.619). Struck out to end the second (1-0 Reds lead). Led off the fifth with a single (1-0). Batted with first and second and two outs in the sixth and drew a walk (2-0). Homered in the eighth to tie the game at two. Led off the 10th with a walk-off RBI-single.
- Ben Brown on April 29 (.515). With the Cubs leading the Padres 5-3, he entered the game with the bases loaded and no out. He allowed a run on a sacrifice fly, then induced a double play. He then recorded the first two outs in the ninth with that 5-4 lead.
- Jordan Wicks on June 28 (.507). Wicks entered the game with the bases loaded, no outs, the Cubs leading the Brewers 4-2 in the 10th. He walked the first batter then got a foul out and a double play for his first career save.
- Michael Conforto on April 19 (.491). With the Cubs trailing 1-0, Michael pinch hit with one out in the ninth and a runner on first. He doubled off his old Mets team, the tying run coming around. The Cubs won 2-1 in 10.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong on May 6 (.471). Cubs leading Reds 2-1, he flied out with a runner on first and one out in the second. Cubs leading 4-1, he batted with the bases empty and two outs, hit by a pitch. Cubs leading 4-2 in the seventh, lead off single. Cubs trailing 6-4 in the ninth, runner on first one out, homer to tie the game. Cubs walked it off 7-6.
- Michael Conforto on May 4 (.466). Pinch hit with the game tied and two outs in the ninth. Walk-off homer.
- Dansby Swanson on April 24 (.465). 0-0 in the third against the Dodgers, struck out to end the inning. Dodgers leading 4-0, he was hit by a pitch to start the sixth. Dodgers leading 4-0, he batted with runners on first and second with two outs, triple. Game tied in the ninth, runner on first. He homered. Cubs win 6-4.
- Shōta Imanaga on May 2 (.458). Ian Happ homers in the second and then scores on a sacrifice fly in the eighth. Imanaga throws seven scoreless, allowing four hits and one walk.
- Javier Assad on June 7 (.456). Javier Assad follows the departure of Jameson Taillon to injury after one inning with 6.1 innings of scoreless ball. He entered trailing 1-0 and gave the Cubs every chance to win this game against the Giants. They did get a run to tie it, but ultimately lost it 2-1 in 10.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong on June 4 (.448). Bottom of the first, 0-0 hit by pitch and steal of second. Third inning, 0-0, struck out for the second out. Bottom six, A’s leading 4-0, one-out homer. Bottom 8, trailing 6-3, struck out for second out. Bottom of the ninth, game tied at six, runners on second and third, walk-off single.
- Trent Thornton on June 25 (.445) Enters the game in the bottom of the 10th, Cubs leading 4-3. Line out, ground out, ground out. Save.
They win 11 of the 12 good ones. The one loss on the positive side was also one of the big negative games (June 7). There is also a win that appeared on both sides of the ledger (June 28). I think that ends up adding up to 13-6 in the 22 events. (One game had two negatives, two games had both a negative and a positive — one a win and one a loss.)
