For the third straight season, the Royals opened the year by dropping two out of three in their first series. In 2023, they were swept by the Twins to open the year. In each of the past two years, they have ultimately won more games than they lost and stayed in the playoff hunt until at least the middle of September. So you could argue this was a pretty good outcome for them. Sure, you’d have liked to win the series, especially since you were never behind in one of those losses until Atlanta walked
it off. But you’re going to have some unfortunate losses mixed in here and there, and beyond that unfortunate mess, the Royals seem primed to have another exciting season of baseball.
The starting pitching looks fantastic
Sure, Cole Ragans didn’t have a great start on Friday, but I’m going to put at least some of that up to his stumble while throwing a pitch to Ozzie Albies in the first inning. Not that I think he was hurt, but that it made him doubt his ability to plant his foot while pitching for the remainder of the game. I don’t have any evidence for it, but he has looked so good for most of his career with KC, including during Spring Training, and looked primed to shut Atlanta down prior to that event, even if it was to only two-and-a-half hitters. I’m not going to write him off after one bad outing, for sure.
Meanwhile, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo looked like rejuvenated versions of themselves. There was some concern among the fanbase and internet writers that Wacha and Lugo looked a bit worn down last year and that neither had particularly good springs. However, each put together a scoreless outing of six innings to start the year, with Lugo adding one more out for good measure. Wacha only allowed one walk; Lugo allowed none. Wacha allowed only singles; Lugo gave up a double. Wacha made his outing even more impressive with the seven strikeouts. Lugo only had three strikeouts, but he had Atlanta off-balance and swinging at his pitches all day, giving up lots of soft contact. When they did hit it hard, they hit it to center field, which is going to serve him well with half of his games in the newly shrunk Kauffman Stadium field that still has an expansive center. We haven’t even gotten to see what Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron – two pitchers who were better than Wacha and Lugo last year – will get to do.
The relievers look…fine
Listen, we all know about Carlos Estévez. I already wrote at length about it in Saturday’s recap, and Matthew LaMar wrote some more for good measure. So I’ll just say here that I understand why Quatraro, as a leader of men who are not machines, wanted to show some faith in his league-leading closer from last season – someone who had struck out three in his last exhibition appearance on Tuesday. The faith was not rewarded, and Q has already said that Estévez will be pitching in lower leverage situations until he gets right again. Assuming, of course, that the batted ball he took off his foot Saturday night doesn’t force him to the IL. I’d guess that if it does, he’ll get some rehab time in Omaha to get right instead of even pitching in low-leverage situations.
But outside of Estévez, the bullpen has pitched to a 3.12 ERA, with 8 strikeouts and 1 walk in 8.2 innings. That’ll do just fine. Bailey Falter even looked halfway decent by striking out four in three innings of relief for Cole Ragans. Both of the runs he allowed were in the third inning, and I understand the Royals want to keep him stretched out to some degree, but I think he could end up being a really interesting two-inning weapon out of the bullpen. The only other run allowed was by John Schreiber, who gave up a solo shot to one of the best, young, left-handed hitters in the sport, Drake Baldwin, while pitching with a four-run lead. The ability to avoid walking guys is really huge for the bullpen, too. If they can keep that going, things are probably going to turn out just fine.
The offense might still be a problem
Here’s the bad news. The Royals’ outfield still hasn’t done much. And I think we need to talk about Isaac Collins, the guy we were kind of hoping could be the starting left fielder for KC this year.
In Saturday night’s broadcast, Adam Wainwright noted that Isaac Collins struggles with fastballs up in the zone. Now that I was paying attention, I saw that Atlanta pitchers threw him almost nothing besides fastballs up for the remainder of the game. So I went and did some digging. Per some searches on StatCast, the league average slash line since the beginning of last year on pitches in the top third of the zone and above is .246/.257/.426/.683. It turns out pitching guys up can be reasonably effective. Collins, on the other hand, slashed .094/.134/.109/.243. And, by the way, that’s not just fastballs, that’s all pitches. Basically, if you throw a pitch up, Collins can’t do anything with it. That’s a pretty big hole in his swing. It won’t matter how good he is at not chasing bad pitches if pitchers can win by just tossing anything at the top of the zone.
You have to assume the Royals knew about this, not just because they’ve shown themselves to be a team that does its due diligence under J.J. Picollo, but because they had hired his old hitting coach, Connor Dawson, before making the trade. They must think they can help him fix it, but it sure didn’t look like they’d gotten there yet with him as of Saturday night. Meanwhile, Lane Thomas has struck out in four of nine plate appearances, and Starling Marte was oh-for-three in his one game played Friday night. Admittedly, that was against Chris Sale, but still. Things are looking pretty dire.
Here’s the good news: after three games, Jac Caglianone has the highest OPS on the team, and he’s done a good job of not chasing, despite how his last two at-bats finished today. Carter Jensen has struck out a few times, but mashed his first home run Sunday afternoon. The consensus all winter has been that if those two are good, the Royals are going to be good. So far so good. But that’s not all, either. Maikel Garcia looks like he’s going to be a problem for pitchers as the leadoff hitter; he’s walked three times while striking out only once and could have had a fourth hit if he’d challenged a ninth-inning 3-0 pitch. Salvador Perez has a dinger. Vinnie Pasquantino has put some good swings on the ball and finished his Sunday with a pair of hits. Bobby Witt Jr. has a three-game hitting streak to start the season.
Speaking of stolen bases, the team has already stolen three bases while only getting caught once, and I can’t recall another baserunning blunder in the first series, so perhaps that’s going to go better, too. Honestly, my biggest complaint right now is that I think the Royals aren’t challenging enough balls and strikes. They haven’t gotten one wrong, yet, but Salvy is the only one who has even attempted them, and he’s only done it as a catcher. It sure seems like there could be more opportunities to try to make things easier on themselves at the plate without completely killing themselves at the end of the game.
There is no denying the offense is starting slowly, again, and it’s easy to panic after it was such a problem last year. But there’s still time for the guys to heat up. They were sluggish in April and still did just fine, record-wise. The big thing is to avoid another June like last year, and they’ve got lots of time to figure things out before that becomes a possibility.
