Draft season for season-long redraft fantasy leagues is here at last! Are you ready?
Home Leagues that use a redraft format are still the backbone of the fantasy football world, and for the next few weeks, tens or maybe even hundreds of thousands of home, work, and family leagues will go through the annual ritual of player selection. Traditions will be on display, and friendships will be rekindled (or tested) through a shared passion. It’s glorious.
Crushing your draft in one of these leagues is awesome.
But to accomplish that you can’t just nail the early and middle rounds. Selections made towards the back-end can make a huge difference, and I’m not talking about DST and kicker.
Today I’m giving you sleepers. What’s a sleeper? Definitions vary, but for me it’s a player who’s likely to be available in the late rounds of drafts (or who might not get drafted at all), and who brings an upside opportunity that could translate into a meaningful contribution in fantasy. Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Javonte Williams, Tank Bigsby, and Emeka Egbuka don’t qualify. We’re going deeper.
For this exercise, I’m only listing RBs and WRs whose current Average Draft Position (ADP) is outside the Top-130, and QBs and TEs (the “onesie” positions, and this article is geared towards 1-QB leagues) whose ADP is below 145. These are players who will often be available after completion of the 11th round (12th for QBs and TEs) in 12-team leagues, or who can be nabbed for a buck or two at the end of auction drafts. You’ll want to have sleeper targets ready when the draft hits the point where your league mates are cracking their sixth cold one, and posting about the awesome fantasy team they just drafted. This is when you pounce.
Most sleeper calls don’t hit. That’s kind of the point. The majority of late-round picks end up riding your bench or being dropped. When you take swings with very little draft capital, you get what you pay for. But if none of your late picks pop, you’ll be at a disadvantage vs. managers who found value at the end of the draft. You usually need to hit on a sleeper or two to win your league.
My 2024 Sleepers column had a lot of misses as you’d expect, but I did unearth some big winners, including: Sam Darnold, Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins, Darnell Mooney, Khalil Shakir, and Jonnu Smith. I’ll try to nail a few more late-round guys who can help you out this time around.
Here’s a link to where you can find my other preseason fantasy football content here at Big Blue View, including my July rankings, players to target and avoid at ADP, a Giants fantasy preview, and more: Fantasy Football Hub.
ADPs shown are for Half-point PPR, and any player rankings shown are also Half PPR, on a points per game basis. ADPs are as of August 17. I’m using a consensus of ADPs, but ADPs move around a lot in mid-August, and your mileage may vary.
Here are some cheaply priced players who bring the kind of upside you want with your late-round dart throws.
Quarterback
Note: J.J. McCarthy (QB19) has an ADP of 133, with Trevor Lawrence (QB20) at 145, and Tua Tagovailoa (QB21) at 149, to give you an idea of where the cutoff is for this exercise. I listed Lawrence and Tua in my Green light: Players to target column.
Sleepers
Michael Penix (ADP: 159, QB24)
Matthew Stafford (ADP: 160, QB25)
Bryce Young (ADP: 161, QB26)
Geno Smith (ADP: 172, QB27)
QB is an embarrassment of riches this season. Most of the players listed above won’t get drafted in 1-QB leagues, but almost all will be taken in Superflex leagues, where it’s ideal to draft three starting QBs. Young made my Green light: Players to target column, but given his 13th Round ADP, he belongs here.
Young and Penix both showed promise at the very end of last season. Penix only started three games and the results were positive. He’s got a live arm and decent weapons, plus the Falcons have a shaky defense so shootouts are on the table. The case for Young is similar. After he reclaimed his starting job midway through last season, he ran a lot more, and from Weeks 12-17 he was the QB11. The offense added weapons and the defense – which allowed the most points in NFL history last season — is unlikely to be all that much better. He’s also got a good offensive line and a solid coaching staff.
Smith could surprise this season. He’s got better weapons than he had last season in Seattle, and the Pete Carroll-Chip Kelly combo should bring some positive change in Vegas. I do worry about the offensive line, but Smith is among the cheapest of the low-end QB2s for Superflex. Stafford finally returned to practice on August 18, and his status (back injury) is something to monitor ahead of your draft. He could have big upside at a cheap price, with the risk mitigated by that price.
How about some deep QB sleepers? if you’re in a Superflex with a long bench, I think you can throw darts at Jaxson Dart (no pun intended) and Jalen Milroe. Both are dual threats, and Milroe could be elite as a runner. Of the two, Dart has the much better chance to start some games this season, and for what it’s worth he’s looked very good in preseason action.
Running Back
Cutoff: Tank Bigsby (ADP: 114 (RB40), Najee Harris (ADP: 115 (RB141), Jaydon Blue (ADP: 130, RB42)
Sleepers:
Tyjae Spears (ADP: 131, RB43)
Isaac Guerendo (ADP: 139, RB47)
Jerome Ford (ADP: 140, RB48)
Braelon Allen (ADP: 143, RB51)
Ray Davis (ADP: 144, RB52)
Dylan Sampson (ADP: 160, RB55)
Tyler Allgeier (ADP163, RB56)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (ADP: 176, RB57)
Deep Sleepers (ADP below 215): Woody Marks, Will Shipley, Brashard Smith, and Ollie Gordon II.
Backup RBs are definitely a group that you want to hammer at the end of drafts. 2024 was an outlier, in terms of RB health. Every other year, plenty of RBs get hurt (or lose their starting role), and backups emerge and become fantasy viable. Some even become league winners. It’s very hard to know which backups will get those golden opportunities, but when they do, it’s MUCH better to have them on your bench than on someone else’s, or the waiver wire. Taking a few of them in the later rounds increases your odds of hitting the annual backup-RB lottery. If you drafted Bucky Irving or Jordan Mason last season, you know what I’m talking about.
With that said, the guys I like most on this list are those with stand-alone value alongside handcuff value, like Allen, Spears (who is dealing with a high ankle sprain), and Davis. Guerendo (who is dealing with an injury right now) is a must if you draft Christian McCaffrey, and a valuable stash even if you don’t. I like the upside of all of these guys, either because of an uncertain backfield in front of them, a belief that they may see more work than expected, or excellent handcuff value.
The deep RB sleepers may not get drafted in standard-sized leagues, but keep them on your radar. In deeper leagues, they’re worthwhile stashes. You can always drop them later if you need the roster spot.
Wide Receiver:
Cutoff: Josh Downs (ADP: 115 WR48), Brandon Aiyuk (ADP: 127, WR49), Michael Pittman (ADP: 128, WR50)
Sleepers:
Keon Coleman (ADP: 134, WR51) and Josh Palmer (ADP: 211, WR70)
Darnell Mooney (ADP: 146, WR54)
Marvin Mims, Jr. (ADP: 155, WR57)
Tre Harris (ADP: 159, WR58)
Marquise Brown (ADP: 166, WR60)
Christian Kirk (ADP: 161, WR61)
Rashod Bateman (ADP: 174, WR65)
DeMario Douglas (ADP: 208, WR68)
Deep Sleepers (ADP below 215, and all of these re below 250): Tory Horton, Adonai Mitchell, and Jalen Coker.
Wide receiver is a good place to shop in Rounds 8-11, and there are several high upside guys who I plan to target in that range (Jakobi Meyers, Stefon Diggs, Khalil Shakir, and Ricky Pearsall head the list). It’s a decent part of the draft for WR value. It thins out some after that, and again, I plan on hammering backup RBs in the later rounds. It’s also easier to find serviceable WRs on the waiver wire as compared to RBs, which further argues for filling out your bench late with a bias towards RB over WR. Still, there are some sleepers at WR with nice upside that you can find here as well.
Mooney made my sleepers list last year and paid off, and a preseason shoulder injury has pushed his price down. I really like Palmer at his price (basically, free), and I think that veterans Brown, Kirk, and Bateman are all being overlooked and offer value, and upside. Bateman scored nine TDs last season (albeit on just 45 catches), has flashed big-play potential when healthy, and has a QB who piles up TDs. Tre Harris has been turning heads in camp, and even with the Keenan Allen signing, I think he could turn into a useful Flex option as a rookie. Slot WRs tend to flourish in the Josh McDaniels offense, and Douglas is another player you can basically get for free, and drop if he’s not producing.
Tight End:
Cutoff: Kyle Pitts (ADP: 125, TE16, Dallas Goedert (ADP: 129, TE17)
Sleepers:
Hunter Henry (ADP: 150, TE18)
Isaiah Likely (ADP: 186, TE21)
Elijah Arroyo (ADP: 188, TE22)
Brenton Strange (ADP: 189, TE23)
Chig Okonkwo (ADP: 191, TE24)
Tight end isn’t deep with quality starters, but there are multiple sleeper options, some of whom won’t get drafted since the tendency is not to draft a backup TE other than in deeper leagues or tight end premium (TEP) formats. I think the TEs I’ve listed all have a chance to surprise this season. Okonkwo should benefit from a weak WR corps in Tennessee, Henry always flies under the radar, Likely (who has been hurt in camp) has immense talent and simply needs more opportunity in Baltimore’s high-scoring offense, and Strange (a former second round pick) finally gets his chance to be the top guy, in a new offense under Liam Coen. Rookie TEs rarely produce for fantasy, but Arroyo (plus Mason Taylor and Terrance Ferguson) are worth watching as the season unfolds.
That’s my list for 2025. Keep it here for more fantasy draft prep content, and if you’re drafting this week, good luck!
