With the Chargers and Chiefs kicking off later today, let’s get a refresher on this week’s opponent with someone who knows them best. Today, we’re joined by Jared Sapp of our Chiefs sister Site, Arrowhead Pride, to preview tonight’s primetime divisional matchup.
Let’s go ahead and dive right in!
1. After throwing for less than 4,000 yards for the first time in his starting career, do you expect Mahomes to bounce back a bit in 2025? Does he really need to when the defense is as good as it is? What kind
of year do you expect from Mahomes this year?
The Chiefs proved last year they could win games with Mahomes putting up middling numbers, but I think they will make it a point to play like a team with the league’s best quarterback should. Mahomes always says the right things, but he is well aware of the disappointing stats and takes some pundits are showing after the 2024 season.
I do think he will bounce back. With the Chiefs’ schedule, I will be surprised if they are again in position for him to rest the final regular season game as he did last year. I think the protection will be a learning experience at times given the youth on the left side, but I do think by midseason, the Chiefs offensive line will be a major upgrade over last season. Four players lined up at left tackle for the Chiefs in 2024, and Mahomes never appeared to fully trust any of them.
The last time the Chiefs’ tackle play was adequate (and Orlando Brown Jr. was far from spectacular that season) was 2022. Mahomes threw for 5250 yards and 41 touchdowns. If rookie Josh Simmons can approach that level, and early returns have been promising, I think Mahomes will likely approach 5000 yards and 40 touchdowns but likely fall just short of both marks.
2. One of the biggest storylines that will follow the Chiefs this year is whether or not this is Travis Kelce’s final season before retirement. What do you think he’ll do once the year is over? Do you foresee him leading the team again in receiving yards and receptions?
If Kelce leads the team in any receiving category, the Chiefs’ season has probably gone very badly at least regarding injury. Rashee Rice clearly had passed Kelce at the start of last season, though we won’t see Rice back on the field until October. Down the stretch and in the playoffs, Xavier Worthy had become the primary target. Worthy would be my pick to lead the Chiefs in receiving stats.
Kelce all but confirmed he would have retired if the Chiefs had executed the three-peat. I don’t think he has ever wanted to set up a farewell tour, so I expect a lot of cryptic and non-committal responses to inevitable retirement questions. But I suspect 2025 to be his last year. The Chiefs kept four tight ends on this year’s active roster and seem to have finally accepted that they need to manage his work to get the most out of however many games he has left.
The Chiefs’ cap situation is manageable but not ideal next offseason, and Kelce is not under contract. With a new deal for cornerback Trent McDuffie still not done and the Chiefs likely to try to force a team friendly extension on Rice next spring, adding a salary for Kelce could put the team in an awkward position with the franchise legend.
3.) If you were Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman, how would you go about attacking this Chiefs defense? Which players/matchups would you attempt to exploit?
There is no secret that Harbaugh and Roman will want to run the ball to allow the right side of the offensive line to settle in, and they almost certainly took note of the Seahawks rushing for 268 yards in the second preseason game. Even though Chris Jones and Nick Bolton watched from the bench, a number of regulars did play.
Defensive tackle is a major question mark for the Chiefs entering this one. They surprisingly cut Mike Pennel, who was expected to be their starting one-tech, at the roster deadline. Second round rookie Omarr Norman-Lott is listed as questionable after managing an ankle injury since early in camp. If former Chargers first rounder Jerry Tillery sees much action, the preseason film would indicate running directly at him will result in positive yardage.
4.) If you were Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, how would you attempt to stop this Chiefs offense? What are the tried-and-true ways to throw Mahomes off his game? What about putting a lid on Kelce?
Whether Gus Bradley, Brandon Staley, or Minter is overseeing the defense, the Chargers have always known that the key to stopping Mahomes is an effective four man pass rush with maximum personnel in coverage, rather than blitzing. If Mahomes early on does not trust his blocking, there is a chance he will start leaving the pocket early and miss out on some big plays. The Chargers will start by testing an unproven left side of the Chiefs’ offensive line.
I have no doubt that Minter is working with Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu this week on some looks that rookie tackle Josh Simmons and second-year pro (but first time guard) Kingsley Suamataia have not seen. I also expect Minter to tease pressure from the right side or up the middle to prevent Creed Humphrey from being able to help out.
I think Kelce’s usage will start to trend more situational this season, but the Chiefs should be able to open some space for him by threating more deep passing. With Hollywood Brown set to play and former Patriots second rounder Tyquan Thornton in house to combine with Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs should be able to get more single coverage on Kelce in the short passing game.
5.) The Chiefs won the last time these two squared off outside of the United States. Will that outcome remain the same on Friday night? How do you see this game shaking out?
The Chiefs’ starting offense looked on fire last time it took the field. Even with JuJu Smith-Schuster likely replacing Rice, I think Kansas City will come out to make a statement. I think their offense will be more prolific this season than it’s been, but I respect the Chargers defense enough to not predict super high scoring.
Over the past two seasons, the Chiefs have experienced almost every scheduling quirk the NFL can throw at a team, and that should benefit them well in this one. I am taking the Chiefs to win 27-20.
