The Wild Card Race
The following table shows my view of the Wild Card Race, updated Sunday morning. It shows the Diamondbacks are on track to win the third Wild Card in the NL. Another positive is that they have chances to overtake the Phillies for the second Wild Card in the NL. Most importantly, the table shows that if the Diamondbacks win this series, it will positively impact making the playoffs.
The Pirates have not reached the playoffs since 2015, when they lost a wild card game to the Cubs. Cubs pitcher Jake
Arrieta threw a complete-game four-hit shutout. Last season, their playoff chances were ended on 16 September per Grokipedia.
The Pirates are very motivated to add at the trade deadline so they can reach the playoffs. It is fortunate that the Diamondbacks play them now, before they add at the deadline.
UPDATE on Monday morning. The Nationals have moved into contention. The Diamondbacks lost on Sunday, but they are still on-track to reach the playoffs. Updated table follows:
Moved on From Santana.
The Diamondbacks moved on from Carlos Santana, while the Pirates moved on from Dennis Santana.
Carlos Santana. This season for the Diamondbacks, he played eight games at first base. “Finally, Carlos Santana never made it back off the injured list, the team opting to DFA him rather than require a 40-man roster move to make room for him.” — Jim McLennan, SB Nation
Dennis Santana. This season for the Pirates, his ERA was 6.05. He earned 2 saves in 4 opportunities. “2026 proved to be Santana’s worst year in the majors and [he] derailed multiple close games the Pirates had chances of winning.” — Austin Bechtold, SB Nation
Let’s compare the teams.
Offense. The Pirates offense made a big step upward from last season’s 3.60 runs scored per game. This season through 24 July, the Pirates averaged more runs scored per game (5.24 vs 4.51 runs per game).
Runners Left On Base. This season through 24 July, the Diamondbacks left fewer runners on base per game (6.63 vs 7.46).
Defense. This season through 24 July, the Diamondbacks had much better defense (36 vs negative 11 OAA, 22 vs 4 DRS)
Bullpens. The Pirates bullpen is below average. This season through 24 July, the Diamondbacks bullpen had a better ERA (4.04 vs 4.40) and had more shutdown performances (101 vs 98).
Starting Pitcher Matchups. In this series, the starter matchups are either equal or advantage Diamondbacks. Of the Pirates’ six starting pitchers, the Diamondbacks are fortunate this series to face the two with the lowest ERA+’s (Chandler and Keller).
Pirates Player to Watch.
In case a starting pitcher injured, Khristian Curtis could be recalled to the Majors. In his MLB debut, 18 July, he entered in the second inning, then pitched 5 scoreless innings! Curtis is a nice-to-have pitcher waiting in AAA.
“Curtis did not simply survive his first major-league appearance. He controlled it. The 24-year-old attacked with a five-pitch mix, landed his cutter for strikes and used his slider to finish hitters. After allowing consecutive hits during his second inning of work, he escaped the threat and struck out the side in the next frame. His ability to adjust and continue working deep into the game looked more like a starter’s outing than a short-relief audition.” — Colin Witte
Pitching Matchups.
Monday, 3:40 PM MST.
Merrill Kelly vs Mitch Keller.This season, Chandler had a slightly better ERA (4.43 vs 5.12), but more importantly, Kelly had more quality starts (7 vs 2).
This matchup is very slight advantage Diamondbacks.
Tuesday, 3:40 PM MST.
Brandon Pfaadt vs Bubba Chandler. This season, their ERAs were nearly the same (4.43 vs 4.47). Although Chandler had more quality starts (3 out of 19 starts vs 2 out of 8 starts), Pfaadt had a higher percentage of quality starts.
This matchup is equal.
Wednesday, 9:35 AM MST.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs Jared Jones. This season, Rodriguez had a much better ERA (2.64 vs 3.72) and many more quality starts (13 vs 2).
This matchup is big advantage Diamondbacks.
