The Cubs scored two early, the starter didn’t allow any runs and they breezed to a 3-1 win. Right? Oh, is that not the game y’all watched? Instant classic gets thrown around a lot, but this one felt like
it. It was tense right from the first pitch. As it turned out, the Padres apparently didn’t have Mason Miller available, but it’s hard to imagine how it would have changed the game.
This one was a chess match between the two managers from the start. I correctly had it on my prediction that Yu Darvish would never see a Cub hitter twice. There was no way the Padres were going to see their season go down in flames with Yu on the mound. This isn’t the Yu we knew and loved here in Chicago. To be fair, he was the losing pitcher after getting into all kinds of trouble quickly. Two of his runners scored after he left the game and in essence, that was all she wrote.
It never felt that way, down to the last pitch. If you ever felt confident that they’d finish this out, you are cut from different cloth than I am. I was optimistic after they jumped ahead and was counting down outs throughout. I believed that are much less hyped bullpen could make two hold up. But the Padres fought to the sweet end of this game. They were as tough an out as can be. If the Cubs do nothing else this postseason, they took a really good team out of the bracket.
I was right with Craig Counsell on all of the pitching moves save one batter. I would not have brought Daniel Palencia out over a second inning break. I can’t imagine what year it was when he last pitched through two inning breaks. It didn’t end up mattering. I also had Brad Keller getting the last six outs and would have been scrambling. Kudos to Matthew Boyd for being up. And extra kudos for Andrew Kittredge picking up a two-out save throwing for the third straight day.
Phew. What a ride. I saw a lot of noise about the Cub lineup. And I think you saw on Thursday night why Craig Counsell is willing to ride or die with them. They never broke through, but they pressured the Padres all night long. 13 hits and a walk. They struck out 11 times again. I haven’t seen the number in a while. Maybe John will tease it out. But the Cubs at one point late in the season had the best record in the league when they did strike out 10 times. They also did well when they were hitless in RISP, at least relatively speaking. An excellent defense, strong pitching, good baserunning, a lot of speed and a fair amount of power have allowed the Cubs to win baseball games in a ton of different ways.
Postseason ghosts be damned. The Cubs got it done. With it being at home, this is probably a series that they “should” win. But without Cade Horton and with 80 percent of Kyle Tucker, that matchup was close on paper and close in reality. I don’t think I was lunatic in thinking the Padres might squeak this series out. Really, Padre pitching was two bad innings away from a very different series. But all of the innings count and the Cubs are moving on to Milwaukee.
Very last thought, if you were at Wrigley Field Thursday afternoon and evening, you deserved a game ball. That crowd was lit. Very little of that gloom and doom waiting for failure. The crowd was active and behind the team throughout. No one ever asks my opinion on these things, but I’d hand you guys all a game ball and beg you to come back for Game 3. A real home field advantage.
Pitch Counts:
- Padres: 136, 35 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 147, 36 BF
Both teams into the “yellow zone,” to no one’s surprise. This was a war back and forth all night long. At 17 PPI for the Padres and 16.33 for the Cubs, both teams flirted with disaster all night long. Math checks. Hat tip to six Padre and five Cub relievers for combining to throw 12 innings and yielding two runs, each on solo homers. 14 strikeouts (10 by the Padres) and two walks. Modern baseball. It’s coming regardless of who is ready for it. I’m just happy the Cubs are slowly embracing the never ending run of guys who can bring it and finding different arm slots and throwing styles. If your pen isn’t a weapon, you aren’t doing it right.
Brad Keller is the only one with a really high pitch count for the Cubs (37 pitches). Andrew Kittredge threw in all three games. So they’ll both happily enjoy their off day. Surely the Cubs will try to get a little bit of length in Game 1. Though if I saw right, the structure for the next round of games will very much allow aggressive bullpen deployment once again. Prepare to get very friendly with Brewer relievers.
Stars of the Game:
- Jameson Taillon. With the season on the line, he gave the Cubs four scoreless on two hits, no walks. Massive performance from the Lakeland, FL native.
- Staying with the pitching, Caleb Thielbar struck out two of the three batters he faced.
- Drew Pomeranz, a perfect inning.
- Andrew Kittredge with two enormous outs. For exactly one second my brain thought maybe the Padres backup catcher took him out to straight away center. Thank you, PCA, for getting set under it quickly and effortlessly.
- Michael Busch. Three hits, two of them were seeing-eye balls. One of them was crushed. That run made things a whole lot less tense and may have altered the finish (if the Padres had only needed one run after their homer).
- Kyle Tucker. Two singles to start the game, giving him three straight hits. The timing is returning. He can’t run, but maybe we’ll get a Gibby shot somewhere along the way.
- Seiya Suzuki. Just one hit, but it was a double and he scored. He and Tucker keyed the rally that ended Darvish’s night.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong with three singles and an RBI. If he can learn a controlled approach that he can balance with his beast mode, he can take his game to a whole other level. He’s hit the Brewers well, if I recall. One huge catch in center and several decent plays out there.
- Dansby Swanson drew the bases-loaded walk for the second run. And his defense was enormous in this series. Play after play after play. We’ve seen Dansby make so many plays in his time here. But this was the most consistent over a stretch for him that I’ve seen. He made literally every play. There is an argument that he was the MVP of the series and I think our Sara Sanchez intends to make that argument.
Replay review:
The Cubs lost three of four challenges. It’s frustrating. Three eyelash plays (the last one was not) and they all ended up going one way. I’m pretty confident Nico Hoerner got in under the tag and that he wasn’t tagged until the shoulder, long after his hand touched the plate. I wouldn’t have had a lot of spilled milk either way. Those plays were close. I stopped here to talk about the PCA play. If the runner can be out in a replay not because the tag beat him but because he lost contact with the bag for a millisecond or two, then absolutely the entire mechanism of the entire play needs to be reviewed. That includes what I think was a blocking penalty on the throw. The fielder had his knee down blocking the base before he had the ball. The stupid off the base rule is a horrible side effect of replay, so you ought to give back to the offense and make sure there was no interference or obstruction anywhere on the play.
Postseason Game 3: Cubs 3, Padres 1 (2-1)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Jameson Taillon (.205). 4 IP, 14 BF, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 4 K
- Hero: Andrew Kittredge (.160). 0.2 IP, 2 BF (Sv 1)
- Sidekick: Drew Pomeranz (.128). IP, 3 BF
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Brad Keller (-.087). 1.1 IP, 8 BF, 2 H, ER, 2 K, 2 HBP
- Goat: Matt Shaw (-.082). 0-3
- Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.079). 1-4, 2B, DP, CS
WPA Play of the Game: Andrew Kittredge got Freddy Fermin to fly out to center with runners on second and third with two outs in the ninth. (.113)
Padres Play of the Game: Jeremiah Estrada got Michael Busch to ground into a 3-6-3, inning-ending double play with the bases loaded in the third to keep the Cubs lead to two. (.099)
Top 5 plays: 1) Final Out (.113), Suzuki 2nd inning double (.108), Busch hits into double play (.099), PCA bases loaded single (.078). Bryce Johnson hit by a pitch (.077).
How fitting that the last play of the game was the biggest? Happens a lot in close games, but perfect for this one.
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Colin Rea 68-39 over Nico Hoerner (144 total votes).
Cumulative H&G Standings:
Andrew Kittredge up top with +4
Ian Happ on the bottom at -6.
Up Next: Best of five Division Series with the Brewers. The Cubs go back on the road for the first time since September 21 (a series that we shall no longer talk about). The Cubs won the season series against the Brewers 7-6. Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70) will get the opener. Javier Assad for the Cubs, maybe? Too soon to know and there will be a ton of analysis before first pitch eventually occurs. What we do know is it will be Saturday. Then the Cubs play again Monday. The Cubs will be home Wednesday, and Thursday if the series goes that far. I’ll be shocked if someone sweeps this series.
