It’s week 10 of the NFL season, and the 2-5-1 Washington Commanders will be facing the 5-2-1 New York Giants on the road at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey this Thursday (today) at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Giants’ wins have been against the Cowboys, Titans, Cardinals, Texans, and Eagles, while their losses have been to the Rams and Saints. I covered the overview of the Giants in the week 5 matchup article, so I won’t rehash the same points here except for the basics. Instead, I’ll focus on what
has changed.
On offense, the Giants have moved from Jameis Winston to J.J. McCarthy as their starting QB. McCarthy is a highly mobile QB who has shown considerably more zip on deep throws and is 2-0 in his starts so far this year. McCarthy is 5th in the NFL in third-down completion percentage at 71.4% since Week 7. He suffered what looked like a very painful hip pointer injury last week against the Eagles, but managed to return to the game and doesn’t carry an injury designation for this matchup, though it’s worth monitoring if it impacts his mobility. RB Cam Skattebo missed the last two weeks with a hamstring injury, but is expected to lead the backfield again in this matchup. WR Malik Nabers has had a breakout season and was named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for his play in October. TE Isaiah Likely seems to have developed a rapport with McCarthy as well, and fans may remember Likely going berserk against Washington with 11 catches for 94 yards and 2 TDs in their week 5 matchup. The Giants offense is ranked 14th with 333.1 yards per game over the season.
On defense, the Giants have managed to stay mostly healthy outside of losing one of their best players, EDGE Brian Burns, to a torn ACL in week 3. Prior to the Burns injury, the Giants had one of the lower blitz rates in the league, but since week 4 have gone up to a 46.5% blitz rate, one of the highest in the league. However, the Giants ran a Flores-worthy 62.2% blitz rate in their week 5 matchup against Washington, so David Blough better have answers ready to deal with the blitz. Overall, the Giants’ defense has given up the 5th-fewest yards per game in the NFL this season. though they have been better against the pass (3rd) than run (19th).
I asked Ed Valentine of Big Blue View five questions to better understand the state of the Giants and what to look for in this game.
1) What has changed for the Giants since the last time these teams faced off?
Well, the biggest personnel change is that J.J. McCarthy is now the starting quarterback instead of Jameis Winston. That changes the Giants’ offense because it opens up more of the playbook.
2) What have you seen out of JJ McCarthy since he joined the Giants? What do you think his future is with the team and could he supplant Jaxson Dart next year?
McCarthy has been good. He was fantastic in his first start against the Texans. He wasn’t nearly as good against the Eagles, but he was OK. I keep saying this — I just don’t think the Giants want to go into next year with any hint of a quarterback controversy. I think McCarthy has to do a LOT to make them even think about doing anything other than handing the reigns back to Dart next year.
The Giants got McCarthy for a fifth-round pick. I think the ideal scenario is for him to play well enough for the Giants to be able to trade him to a QB-needy team in the offseason for much more than they spent to acquire him.
3) Where have the Giants performed the best this year and where do you think they still have the most room for improvement?
The defense continues to impress. Arvell Reese is a star, and the secondary has been better than expected. They need to run the ball more consistently. The blocking hasn’t always been up to par.
4) What is your realistic best-case scenario for the rest of the Giants’ season and in the offseason?
I don’t know about the offseason, though I think using McCarthy to get a haul in the draft would be great. The best-case scenario? Win the NFC East, which would give them a home playoff game for the first time since MetLife Stadium opened in 2010, get a favorable matchup, and win one playoff game.
5) What’s your prediction for this game’s outcome? What do you think will be the critical factors determining that outcome?
I think the Giants win this game. They have some momentum, they know what kind of opportunity they have. I think they need to keep Jayden Daniels from hurting them with his legs like they did in Week 5, and they need to limit mistakes. They will win if they do those things.
A companion article to this with my answers to Ed’s questions is linked here.
Thanks again to Ed Valentine for taking time out of his day to answer our questions about the Giants.
