On The Horizon: Cubs vs. Brewers series preview

We had hoped that this series might be a meaningful clash for the NL Central title. Instead, the Brewers lead the division by eight games. It’s still possible for the Cubs to catch them, I suppose, but extremely unlikely. Instead, these become important games for the Cubs to hang on to the top wild

What is the story about?

We had hoped that this series might be a meaningful clash for the NL Central title.

Instead, the Brewers lead the division by eight games. It’s still possible for the Cubs to catch them, I suppose, but extremely unlikely. Instead, these become important games for the Cubs to hang on to the top wild card spot.

For more on the Brewers, here’s Harrison Freuck, manager of our SB Nation Brewers site Brew Crew Ball

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After more than two months without seeing each other, the Brewers and Cubs are set to go

head-to-head for seven games over the next two weeks, starting with four games at Wrigley. With Milwaukee up seven games in the division, these last two series will play a role in how the standings shake out. Milwaukee, after a rough sub-.500 April, played great baseball in May and has maintained a pretty consistent rate through June, July, and August, with a winning percentage at .600 or better each month. Interestingly, the Brewers have had the most success against teams over .500, going 37-21 against those opponents compared to a 48-31 record against sub-.500 teams.

Over the last month or so, the Brewers’ offense has been led by Jackson Chourio, Andrew Vaughn, Jake Bauers, and Joey Ortiz (yes, Joey Ortiz). Chourio looks to be on his way to another 20-20 season despite missing the first six weeks of the season, while Bauers is having a career year in his age-30 season. Vaughn, while not flashing a ton of power, has been great at getting on base, with a .307 batting average and .395 OBP. Ortiz, hitting just .253/.318/.382 for the season, has quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last two months — since July 4, he’s hitting .328/.377/.552 with five homers, seven doubles, three triples, 19 RBI, and 19 runs. Even as some of the other big boppers (William Contreras, Brice Turang, and Christian Yelich) have struggled, he’s provided a solid presence to the bottom of the lineup. Other key pieces offensively for Milwaukee include rookies Luis Lara and Cooper Pratt, as well as Garrett Mitchell, Gary Sánchez, Sal Frelick, and David Hamilton.

On the mound, the Brewers have lined up their best arms for this series, with Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, and Logan Henderson all expected to appear. Not much can be said about Misiorowski that hasn’t already been said, but Harrison and Henderson have also been quietly great on their own. In the bullpen, closer Trevor Megill has been one of the best since the end of April, as he’s 20-for-21 in save chances with a 1.09 ERA since that time. Abner Uribe, who has missed the last couple of weeks, is also slated to return by this series, shoring up the backend of the ‘pen. Aaron Ashby, Chad Patrick, and DL Hall have also been solid.

This should be another fun series between two of baseball’s best teams. I’ll predict a 2-2 series split at Wrigley.

Fun facts

The Cubs were swept in three games when the Brewers made their first visit to Wrigley Field in May. The scores were 9-3, 5-2 and 5-0. That made the Cubs’ record at home in their 30-year rivalry 119-113. They are 40-32 in first games, 36-36 in second games, 32-34 in third games, 11-9 in fourth games and 0-2 in fifth games.

Last year, in a five-game series, the Cubs lost, won three and lost.

The Cubs last swept the Brewers at home on Aug. 2-4, 2019. Since then, they have won five series, split one and lost nine, including four straight losses in 2021. The Cubs won the first two games twice in 2022 but lost the third.

In series that began in the last week of August or later, the Cubs are 61-62 overall vs. the Brewers, but just 15-27 during the past 10 seasons. At home, they are 33-31 overall and 6-14 since 2016.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Monday: Clay Holmes, RHP (1-2, 1.96 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, 3.69 FIP in four starts with Cubs; 5-6, 2.26 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 3.35 FIP in 13 starts overall) vs. Kyle Harrison, LHP (10-3, 2.79 ERA, 1.123 WHIP, 3.29 FIP)

Tuesday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (8-3, 3.99 ERA, 1.216 WHIP, 4.67 FIP) vs. Robert Gasser, LHP (4-5, 4.59 ERA, 1.300 WHIP, 4.44 FIP)

Wednesday: David Peterson, LHP (4-1, 3.90 ERA, 1.355 WHIP, 4.31 FIP in 11 games with Cubs; 7-7, 5.11 ERA, 1.516 WHIP, 4.05 FIP in 27 games overall) vs. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP (14-5, 1.73 ERA, 0.755 WHIP, 2.14 FIP)

Thursday: Kevin Gausman, RHP (3-1, 5.14 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, 4.08 FIP in five starts with Cubs; 8-11, 4.52 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 3.60 FIP in 28 starts overall) vs. Logan Henderson, RHP (9-2, 2.48 ERA, 0.825 WHIP, 3.29 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Monday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Tuesday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, TBS (outside the Cubs and Brewers market territories)

Wednesday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Brewers market territories)

Thursday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Fox-TV (regional — coverage map). A reminder that if you subscribe to MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings, you can watch this game via those services even if it’s not on the Fox affiliate in your market.