At this point on the calendar, fans of the New York Yankees likely know the Toronto Blue Jays pretty well by now. The Yankees fell just short in the AL East race, almost entirely because the Jays so thoroughly
handled them in the regular season. Remember, these two teams finished 2025 with identical records at 94-68, but powered by a four-game sweep at Rogers Centre in early July, Toronto won the season series, 8-5.
The Blue Jays have struggled in the postseason since back-to-back ALCS appearances in 2015-16. They’ve lost seven playoff games in a row, including a trio of two-and-outs in the Wild Card round at the hands of the 2020 Rays, the 2022 Mariners, and the 2023 Twins. The last two series in particular featured some infamous moments. Although the Jays are guaranteed to enjoy home-field advantage against all AL opponents, they enter the playoffs with just about as many question marks as anyone.
This is the first time that the Yankees and Jays have ever met in the playoffs. Tense pennant races like this year, 2015, and 1985 only compare so much to the actual postseason, so this should be a doozy. The winner will face the victor of the Mariners/Tigers ALDS with a shot at the 2025 World Series on the line.
2025 record: 94-68
Manager: John Schneider
Top hitter by fWAR: George Springer (5.2)
Top pitcher by fWAR: Kevin Gausman (4.1)
The real strength of this Blue Jays team is the offense, a deep and diverse group of hitters that might just be able to outslug the questions the rotation may present. A total of 10 different players received at least 100 at-bats this season while hitting above league average — you can set a lineup every day that is full of danger for an opposing starter.
Springer led Toronto with 32 bombs and seems ticketed for AL Comeback Player of the Year, and we’ve seen how Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can seemingly turn it on at will against New York. With Rafael Devers safely in San Francisco, Vlad is probably the biggest in-division thorn in the Yankees’ backside, as he’s hit .302/.367/.550 with 22 homers in 102 career games against New York since debuting in 2019. Springer’s no stranger to pummeling the Yanks as well.
Notably though, the status of Vlad’s longtime partner-in-crime is unclear as of the time this article goes live. It’s conceivable that impending free agent Bo Bichette has already played his last game with the Jays, as despite an excellent comeback season of his own, he hasn’t played since busting up his knee in a collision at home at Yankee Stadium on September 6th. Even if the long shot hits and Bichette is active, there’s likely to be rust. So the onus will be on the likes of All-Star catcher Alejandro Kirk and others to pick up the slack. For his part, Kirk stepped up in a big way at the end of the regular season, homering three times in his final six plate appearances to help Toronto win its final two games and fend off the Yankees for the division title.
For as haphazard as the playoff picture ended up, there’s no team you can just look past. The Blue Jays having home-field advantage the entire run on the AL side make them a challenge to get through, but for the Yankees, it’s also recognition that you survived an arduous Wild Card Series.
Note: Aside from Gausman, no pitching matchups have been confirmed; the listed arms generally align with who the consensus seems to be will get the ball in each game.
Game 1
Matchup: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Kevin Gausman
First Pitch: Saturday, October 4th at 4:08pm ET
Venue: Rogers Centre (Toronto, ON)
TV: FOX
Toronto features quite a strong 1-2 punch for the first two games of the ALDS, with Gausman and deadline acquisition Shane Bieber tapped to start. Gausman is coming off another strong season, one of the better free agent signings of the age. In four seasons with Toronto he’s accumulated more than 18 fWAR with a 3.48 ERA/3.14 FIP, while topping 180 innings every year but his first, in 2022. He features one of the best four-seam fastballs in baseball, but his moneymaker is a split-finger. He’s effectively become a two-pitch pitcher this year against lefties, but will mix in a slider against righties. Although Gausman flat-out steamrolled the Yankees on September 5th, he will be looking to set aside shaky playoff memories, as he has a 6.32 ERA across his 15.2 innings and four appearances this decade for the Jays and Giants.
During the postgame after sending Boston home in the Wild Card Series finale, the latest reports indicated that the Yankees were deciding between Gil and Will Warren for the Game 1 start. SNY’s Andy Martino has Gil as the favorite, which is probably a safe assumption (update: Gil is now confirmed). Gil’s command is rarely 100 percent—especially post-lat injury—but he did make a couple playoff starts in 2024 during his AL Rookie of the Year campaign and Warren carries the risk of a first-inning blowup, which has happened multiple times in 2025. Gil fired six strong in the Bronx against Toronto on September 6th, one of his better outings this year. Even with a so-so bullpen, Aaron Boone should have a relatively quick hook in Game 1 unless Gil pulls a Cam Schlittler since his relievers will all be well-rested following two days off for nearly everyone. (Thanks again, Cam!)
Game 2
Matchup: LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Shane Bieber (?)
First Pitch: Sunday, October 5th at 4:08pm ET
Venue: Rogers Centre (Toronto, ON)
TV: FS1
Technically, Bieber hasn’t been confirmed for Game 2 yet, but he is the logical choice. He was a terrific acquisition for the Jays, as he was dealt from Cleveland just as he was set to return from Tommy John surgery. As an impending free agent, if he provided any value to the Jays it would be a win, and instead he’s made seven starts with a solid ERA. The shadow behind that 3.57 figure is a sky-high home run rate though, and in postseason games where every run seems so important, making one mistake out over the plate could loom large for the deadline acquisition. It’s worth at least a quick note that the Yankees faced Bieber twice in the playoffs when he was with the Guardians, clobbering him in 2020 and scoring a pair with 10 baserunners on in 5.2 innings in 2022 on a Giancarlo Stanton homer.
Fried will be fully rested by Sunday and no doubt raring to go in Toronto. The Wild Card Series Game 1 loss was no fault of Fried’s, as the southpaw was brilliant in matching Garrett Crochet, departing from the ballgame after 6.1 innings of scoreless ball, limiting the Red Sox to four hits and three walks before the Yankees’ bullpen blew the 1-0 lead he gave them. Boone will have every reason to be confident in his battle-tested ace going up against Bieber.
Game 3
Matchup: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Trey Yesavage (unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Tuesday, October 7th at 8:08pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
TV: FS1
After Gausman and Bieber, things get murkier for Toronto. José Berríos pitched himself right out of the rotation and is now down with an elbow injury anyway, so 22-year-old rookie Trey Yesavage seems to be in. The 2024 firs-round pick out of East Carolina has done great in his first three MLB starts against the Rays and Royals, even if his walk rate is higher than you’d like it to be. He follows Gausman’s track with his best offering being a splitter.
While the Yankees could break up the lefties with Schlittler rested for Game 3, the more likely option has them turning to Rodón again. The 2025 All-Star did the job against just about anyone not named Trevor Story during his Wild Card Series start, keeping Boston at bay to help keep the Yankees alive. The Jays beat Rodón on July 21st in Toronto and also tallied two against him a month prior — but this showdown would be in the Bronx, so a change of pace.
Game 4 (if necessary)
Matchup: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. RHP Max Scherzer (unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Wednesday, October 8th at 7:08pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
TV: FS1
The final starter for the Jays is up for grabs, with either veteran Max Scherzer or Chris Bassitt set to go. Gausman has never started on three days’ rest so that seems unlikely unless the Jays were in a win-or-go-home scenario. The future Hall of Famer Scherzer has taken his lumps at age 41 and while Bassitt has been better, he is returning from an IL stint with lower back inflammation. I’d have to put my money on Scherzer, if for no other reason than I’d be terrified to tell him he’s not going. Regardless of who would get the ball for Toronto though, this would probably be a heavy bullpen day. Even if you trust Bassitt, he hasn’t appeared since September 18th.
This preview is being published the day after Schlittler announced his presence to the baseball writ large, so what can we say that’s revelatory. If he can even be a significant percentage of the absolute monster he was in the Wild Card Series clincher against Boston, then Toronto is in for a tough time. If there’s an (understandable) return to just solid work or worse? Then that’s another story. The Red Sox might have been a little caught off guard with how good Schlittler was, but expect the Jays to have at least taken notes.
Game 5 (if necessary)
Matchup: RHP Luis Gil (?) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Friday, October 10th at 8:08pm ET
Venue: Rogers Centre (Toronto, ON)
TV: FOX
The other advantage of the Jays getting the bye was that they could set their rotation to have Gausman ready to make two starts in this series if needed, as the Yankees did when they capitalized with Gerrit Cole in the 2022 ALDS against Cleveland. So not much more to say here than to keep that in the back of your mind, especially if Gausman looks nasty in Game 1.
As for the Yankees? Fire up the ol’ “it’s a cliché for a reason” line because Game 5 would be all hands on deck. Maybe they use Gil, maybe they use Warren, or maybe they even try Fried on three days’ rest even though he’s never done that before after a start. Just about everyone would be available to try to stitch together nine innings of work in the win-or-go-home up north.
