With the Detroit Lions’ schedule out and the betting lines released, expectations have been set for the 2026 season. Detroit arguably has the easiest schedule in the NFL—even if there are some things we really don’t like about it. They’re favorited in all but three games this season. And while there are certainly a lot of questions that remain about the 2026 Detroit Lions, the outlook is pretty optimistic for the upcoming year.
Now, that doesn’t mean Detroit is guaranteed success. If expected playmakers
don’t develop, the injury bug hits the team again, or their schedule turns out to be much more difficult than expected, things could certainly go south in a hurry.
So in today’s Question of the Day, let’s consider the worst case scenario.
What is the 2026 Detroit Lions’ floor in win total?
My answer: For the purposes of making this an interesting conversation, I’m going to eliminate the absolute nuclear option of Jared Goff missing the entire season with an injury. Sure, that’s very possible, as quarterback injuries happen and decimate a team’s chances at a successful season. But it’s just not much of a discussion to have when we all know that would likely sink Detroit’s floor to a 3-5-win season.
Instead, I’m going to assume somewhat normal health conditions—or at least no worse than Detroit’s last two years of horrible injury luck. If that’s the case, then I think this team’s floor is eight wins.
In my game-by-game predictions last week, I projected a 12-win season for the Lions, and I maintain that that’s a very realistic outcome for 2026. But some of those games I picked as wins could certainly flip in the other direction. The rising Panthers won’t be easy on the road in primetime. I also had Detroit split each divisional game, but after getting swept by both the Packers and Vikings last year, it would not shock me to see them finish with a losing recording within the NFC North again in 2026. Even an “easy” win like the Giants could be a lot tougher than it looks, especially considering that game happens deep in December—when John Harbaugh may have that team clicking.
Why am I unsure about the Lions? They still have a ton to prove on defense. Their defensive line may be improved, but they are still banking on unproven players like Tyleik Williams, Levi Onwuzurike, and Derrick Moore to play big roles. The linebacker room still has a massive Alex Anzalone hole in it. The secondary is filled with players that need to take a big jump in 2026 (DJ Reed, Terrion Arnold) or players who must overcome serious injury concerns (Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph). And that’s not even including defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, who must also take a pretty big jump in 2026 to make this team whole.
So while I think this team could—and should—push for the third division title in four years, let’s not forget there is a lot this team still needs to go right in order for them to improve upon last year’s win total.
What do you think is the Lions’ floor for wins in 2026? Vote in the poll below and share your reasoning in the comment section.
