Arizona football at Cincinnati score predictions

SB Nation

With bowl eligibility locked up, Arizona heads into the final quarter of the season looking to improve its resume in order to end up in the best postseason game possible. It’s remaining opponents are a combined

18-9 overall and 9-6 in the Big 12, so it won’t be an easy finish.

First up is No. 22 Cincinnati (7-2, 5-1). The Bearcats are the only Big 12 school the Wildcats (6-3, 3-3) have yet to face in football, and this will be an early one with kickoff at 10 a.m. MT.

How will Arizona, which is an underdog, do in this one? Our staff makes its predictions.

Kim Doss — Cincinnati wins 35-28

Last week turned out to be somewhat of a defensive battle between the Wildcats and the Kansas Jayhawks, but will that happen again this week?

The oddsmakers have consistently set the over/under low in Cincinnati’s games this season. The Bearcats’ games have gone over in six of nine contests. Arizona had gone over in four of eight prior to last week. I would expect the teams to exceed FanDuel’s 56.5 points just based on those outcomes.

Arizona has one of the top 10 passing defenses as far as yards allowed per game, but rushing defense still lags behind at No. 61. That’s likely going to be a problem this week, as Cincinnati has a top 25 rushing offense. The Bearcats’ offensive line is also doing a great job of protecting the quarterback, surrendering just two sacks for 17 yards this season.

Last week, the Wildcats gave up the third most rushing yards of the season to KU. They had only allowed more to BYU and Houston. It should be the difference again this week as the competition level takes a step up again.

Ezra Amacher — Cincinnati wins 34-27

Arizona coach Brent Brennan made it clear this week that reaching bowl eligibility isn’t enough. He wants his team to maximize the final three games of the regular season. However, motivation alone won’t improve Arizona’s win total from six to seven on Saturday (sorry, I had to). For one thing, Cincinnati is well-rested coming off a bye week and is looking to keep itself in the Big 12 championship game conversation. Cincinnati is also newly ranked in the CFP rankings. Even though it’s an early kickoff, this is a big game in the land of Goetta and chili.

The Bearcats run an offense that is hard to bring down – literally. Cincinnati has only given up a pair of sacks all season. Cincinnati’s running game is one of the best in the Big 12 behind the mobile legs of quarterback Brendan Sorsby and the dual threat of running backs Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor. Cincinnati’s Sorsby doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, either. He’s only thrown for two interceptions all season. Even if Arizona’s defense brings its A game, I don’t see the Wildcats doing enough to slow down Cincinnati on its home field.

Adam Green — Cincinnati wins 27-21

I think by now we have a pretty good ide of what Arizona is, and that is a solid football team that can hang with most anyone but is at least better than a majority of the Big 12. Up to this point they have yet to beat a conference contender, though, which this week’s opponent certainly is.

The difference between Cincinnati and both the BYU and Houston teams the Cats could have beaten is that the Bearcats have a truly dynamic dual threat at QB. That is something Arizona has struggled to contain at times this season, and should Brendan Sorsby get going in this one it will be very difficult for Arizona to get stops.

So, the question is if Noah Fifita and the Cats can keep up. Last week’s win over Kansas was not that side of the ball’s best performance and a similar effort would likely not only spell a loss, but a comfortable one at that. The guess here is the Cats keep it reasonably close, but ultimately not have enough to pull off the upset on the road.

Juan Serrano — Cincinnati wins 31-20

Get your breakfast burritos ready because this is going to be an early and frustrating game. As most know, Arizona has not been a relatively good road team. Now it’s being asked to make a very long road trip for a 10 a.m. Tucson time kickoff to face a top 25 team. The Bearcats are a surprise team in the Big 12 this season, but it’s not by luck. This is a very talented Cincinnati team. I do think Arizona will be able to stick around for most of the game, but will ultimately fall.

Luckily for the Wildcats, Cincinnati has a better offense when the passing game is going and Brendan Sorsby is taking care of the ball. He only has two interceptions on the season and both of them came in Cincinnati’s two losses. This works in Arizona’s favor mainly due to the run game difficulties. If the Bearcats stick to the air game, it will give a chance for the secondary to have a good day. However, in the last two games, there have been busted coverage passes that have been called back due to penalty or the pass was over thrown. That could be another weak spot that Cincinnati can expose.

If Arizona is to come out on top, it would take a big time performance from the offense. In particularly, it would need to come from Noah Fifita and the passing game. The Bearcats have a better run defense than pass defense. If Arizona can execute and take care of the ball, it can give itself a chance to be in a position to win the game. I still think the logistics of it being a very early kickoff on the road will be a big factor for Arizona and I don’t think it will get the top 25 upset it is looking for.

Brandon Combs — Cincinnati wins 31-21

I think this one is pretty straight forward honestly. For starters, Arizona is playing a Top 25 team on the road, early and with one of their more impactful defensive linemen, Tia Savea, out with an injury sustained against Kansas. Add the fact that Brendan Sorsby has been very good this season and it isn’t a recipe for a win. Sorsby has a 21 to 2 TD-INT ratio but he has only completed about 61% of his passes. One thing that does make him a big problem for the Arizona defense is his running ability. He is Cincy’s third leading rusher with 453 yards on the ground. He also leads the team with eight rushing touchdowns. He averages 6.2 yards per carry and will pose quite the threat to Danny G’s defensive unit. Running back Tawee Walker also poses a major threat to the ‘Cats. The defense is going to have to step up to slow this running attack down and I’m not sure if that can be done. Due to that, I believe the Bearcats will be able to finish a couple more drives than Arizona, leading to a 10-point victory for Cincy.

Brian Pedersen — Cincinnati wins 34-23

Don’t call it a letdown, call it what was probably going to happen all along.

Cincinnati is having a breakout season, with more Big 12 wins in 2025 than in its previous two years in the league. The Bearcats are No. 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings, have a quarterback that is potentially one of the top draft picks, a productive offense and a strong defense.

All of that points to Arizona being at a severe disadvantage. Cincinnati is in the fight for the Big 12 championship game and can’t afford a slip up, though with BYU coming to town next week there’s always the chance that it could be looking ahead.

As long as the UA doesn’t fall behind by a bunch, like at Iowa State, it should keep this one competitive.