After their upset over the No. 16 USC Trojans last weekend, one looming question started to pop up in the minds of Wisconsin Badgers fans: Is there a dark-horse shot at a College Football Playoff spot?
At 5-2, the Wisconsin Badgers now have ranked wins over Penn State and USC (although it’s unclear how valuable those wins will look by the end of the season). Even better, their two losses are to two top-seven teams, Notre Dame and UCLA, who both project to be in the College Football Playoff as of now.
To end the season, Wisconsin faces Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Minnesota. In years past, there still wouldn’t be much hope in the Badgers winning a ton of those games because of their inconsistent play. Over the past two seasons, Wisconsin has lost to Iowa and Minnesota twice each, while also losing to Maryland last season.
But the Badgers have a shot to be favored in every game after this weekend’s, leading to the very serious question of whether they can get to 10 wins this season and even compete for a College Football Playoff spot.
It all starts with arguably the most difficult matchup yet against Iowa. In years past, I haven’t felt confident about this matchup because of Wisconsin’s struggles to win the line of scrimmage. The Badgers have given up over 200 rushing yards in back-to-back games against Iowa.
But the Badgers are much better at stopping the run this season, with a big part of that being the continued play of star linebacker duo Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano. Wisconsin’s defensive line has been good as well, as the Badgers brought in a couple of big bodies from the transfer portal with the goal of stopping the run.
They’ve also been great against the pass, thanks to a pass rush led by rising star Sebastian Cheeks and some strong cornerback play.
If the Badgers can stop the run in this one, they should find themselves on the right side of history and snap a four-game losing streak to Iowa. If not, it might be another game filled with questions for the Badgers.
After that comes Rutgers and Maryland, who have both looked quite poor this year. Purdue could provide a tough challenge, and given that they’re at home, this one could be close to a toss-up on the spread. But the Boilermakers have had some rough outings, notably losing to Washington 38-26 and Notre Dame 49-10.
Wisconsin finishes its season against Minnesota, which is 5-2 and 3-1 in the Big Ten. The Gophers have had some ugly games, losing to Mississippi State by 25 and to Purdue by 28. But they’ve beaten Iowa, Michigan, and Washington, showing they can grit out ugly games. That one will be a tough one, as Axe games usually have been for the Badgers.
When you look at the schedule on paper, you can make a case for Wisconsin to win all five games. But there is also a fair argument for the Badgers to lose against Iowa, Purdue, or Minnesota, and their offense has been quite inconsistent this season.
Even with an elite defense, the Badgers could really struggle to score points, have costly turnovers, or commit penalties that could derail one of those games. To begin the season, I had eight wins as the litmus test for whether the Badgers met expectations in 2026, given their schedule. At 5-2, if they go 3-2 the rest of the way, which certainly seems feasible, that will come true.
Wisconsin currently has -130 odds at 8.5 wins this season. They’re also currently at +750 odds to make the College Football Playoff, good for 27th in the country.
Ultimately, I don’t think they get to 10 wins. It’s hard to win five in a row with their level of consistency on offense and the struggles at the quarterback position. But they absolutely must win one of the Iowa and Minnesota games, and it would be disappointing if they fell to either Rutgers or Maryland.
That leaves me back to my preseason expectation of eight wins being the minimum goal for this Wisconsin team. That seems very doable, and Saturday’s outcome should be the true litmus test. If the Badgers get the win over Iowa, that’s significant growth and a strong sign for closing out 2026. If they don’t, questions will likely start to come.
