With the conference tournaments behind us and a week to wait around before NCAAs begin, I thought it would be a good opportunity to take a look at the remaining Hodge candidates and place them into tiers ahead of the NCAA Championships.
What is the Hodge?
The Hodge trophy is “wrestling’s Heisman”, awarded to the season’s most dominant college wrestler. The award is voted on by a combination of media members, past Hodge winners, retired coaches, and a fan vote.
The official voting criteria are:
- Record
- Dominance/bonus-point percentage
- Quality of competition
- Sportsmanship
Past credentials used to
be a criterion, and some voters still consider it in their voting even though it is no longer part of the official criteria.
The Hodge has only been awarded since 1995. Cael Sanderson is the only three-time winner. There have also been five two-time winners: Ben Askren, David Taylor, Zain Retherford, Spencer Lee, and Gable Steveson. The Hodge has twice been shared: in 2001 Cael shared it with Nick Ackerman (the only D-III wrestler to win) and 2021, when Lee and Steveson shared the award.
While the award is not limited to D-I, only two wrestlers outside of D-I have won it: the aforementioned Ackerman from D-III Simpson College and Emmett Willson from NAIA Montana State-Northern in 2004. Ackerman is also the only wrestler to win the Hodge without going undefeated.
For today, I will only consider the undefeated D-I wrestlers since no one outside of that group has won in over 20 years.
Data sources and caveats
For each wrestler, I include all of the following stats: Record, victories over top-10 opponents, victories over NCAA qualifiers, average bonus points per match, the bonus rate (percent of matches they bonused in), and then how many of each kind of bonus. Wrestlers are sorted by ascending average bonus points and then broken into subjective tiers.
All the bout data are sourced from WrestleStat, but I computed all my own stats off the results. DQs and injury defaults are included in the data, but forfeits are not. I also removed matches against teammates, since they don’t officially count. So my stats may not match what you’ll see on WrestleStat or their official record.
Top-10 victories are based on the current (post conference tournament) Intermat rankings. Opponents who ended the season inactive due to injury or other reason are not considered for quality wins, as they do not have a current rank and are not NCAA qualifiers. For instance, Rocky Elam’s 8–2 victory over Massoma Endene does not count as a T-10 win because he and Iowa parted ways afterwards and Endene is no longer considered for ranking.
Hodge tier list
Note: Going undefeated is a remarkable achievement for anyone, no matter how many bonus they collect along the way. Any commentary below is purely in relation to the other currently undefeated wrestlers and the criteria of the Hodge (especially dominance).
Any wrestler who losses at NCAAs would automatically be dropped from consideration.
“Sure, they’re undefeated, but they’re not dominant” tier
All of these wrestlers have a sub-1.0 bonus point per match average. That isn’t going to get it done barring incredible chaos.
Rocky Elam, Iowa State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 19–0 | 5 | 13 | 0.474 | 42.1% | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Elam has had only a single match end early. Even though two-thirds of his opponents qualified (and that doesn’t count Endene, as mentioned before), that’s probably not good enough for a Hodge.
Simon Ruiz, Cornell
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 16–0 | 2 | 9 | 0.813 | 43.8% | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
A number of the decisions were by a comfortable margin, but the sub-50% bonus rate against what is a sub-par schedule for this group leaves Ruiz near the bottom.
Rocco Welsh, Penn State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 20–0 | 8 | 13 | 0.850 | 50.0% | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
I didn’t consider margin of victory beyond the victory categories. But, I would guess Rocco has the most OT matches at four, plus a number of other one- or two-point decisions. Rocco has racked up eight top-10 victories though, as many as anyone on this list.
Sheldon Seymour, Lehigh
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 19–0 | 1 | 8 | 0.947 | 42.1% | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Seymour was injured for the Penn State dual, otherwise there would only be one undefeated left at 125. The schedule he did wrestle wasn’t too great, with only one top-10 victory (a 9–6 DEC over #10 Stevo Poulin) and eight qualifiers. And he wasn’t particularly dominant against that weak schedule either.
Sergio Vega, Oklahoma State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 19–0 | 5 | 13 | 0.947 | 52.6% | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Vega faced a pretty solid schedule, but he still lacks the bonus rate and early match terminations to be higher on this list.
“Technically undefeated, but lost to a teammate” tier
Luke Lilledahl, Penn State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 20–0 | 5 | 14 | 1.250 | 65.0% | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Matches against teammates don’t count, but we all know he lost to Nate Desmond. He also has the only average bonus in the otherwise large gap between the previous tier and the next tier. There are four other teammates farther down on the list which are going to dampen any thoughts of Luke taking the Hodge.
“Middling excellence” tier
Very solid. These wrestlers have clearly separated themselves from the previous tiers. However, they are not quite as exceptional as the elite candidates this year.
Luke Stanich, Lehigh
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 13–0 | 1 | 6 | 1.462 | 76.9% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
The other Lehigh wrestler on this list also missed the Penn State dual with injury. Stanich had fewer matches than his teammate, and as a result only faced six qualifiers and one top-10 opponent (#6 Vince Cornella). He’s got a high bonus rate against that weak schedule, but many of those were of the lesser variety (major decision).
Yonger Bastida, Iowa State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 25–0 | 8 | 12 | 1.48 | 72.0% | 2 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Yonger has the most matches of anyone on this list, and has run up his tech fall numbers with it. He also has a nice collection of top-10 and qualifiers among them (although only five unique T-10 opponents).
Isaac Trumble, NC State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 15–0 | 1 | 8 | 1.533 | 80.0% | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
The heavyweights fall right next to each other on this list. Trumble only wrestled 60% of the matches Bastida did. His schedule also isn’t nearly as good, partly due to being the from the ACC (and the only ACC wrestler on this list). His lone top-10 victory is a 5–1 DEC over #5 Nick Feldman back at the NDI.
Shayne Van Ness, Penn State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 21–0 | 4 | 10 | 1.667 | 81.0% | 5 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
As Penn State fans, we all know SVN has been playing with fire a lot lately, even when he has come back to earn bonus. He racked up a lot of bonus early, but over the last six he has just one TF and two majors. His last pin was early January against Rutgers. Cael traditionally has our guys at their best in March, but SVN has the appearance of someone who is fading just a little bit down the stretch. Not saying he is likely to lose this week, but falling off even a little bit is going to keep him out of serious consideration.
Levi Haines, Penn State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 21–0 | 4 | 8 | 1.762 | 81.0% | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Levi’s numbers look very similar to Shayne’s, with a couple majors stretched into a tech fall. Otherwise, both have 21 wins, four over a top-10 opponent, and identical bonus rates. Levi hit a couple fewer qualifiers. He and SVN would be in the best positions to fight it out should the impossible happen and the rest of this list fails.
“Can a high schooler win the Hodge?” tier
Jax Forrest, Oklahoma State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 14–0 | 3 | 8 | 1.786 | 85.7% | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jax was in high school when the season began, before he reclassified and entered the Cowboy lineup in January. Since then he has buzz-sawed through nearly everyone in his path. The only one who has been able to hang with him so far is #4 Aaron Seidel. However, he has only faced three top-10 opponents and eight qualifiers in his half-season of competition. 133 is the strongest weight this year, so if he is able to remain unscathed and maybe pick up some more bonus against that field, it may be enough to vault him into consideration.
“I would be surprised if it isn’t one of these guys” tier
These are the clear favorites. All have demolished their competition and are expected to be at the top of the podium Saturday. It would take a lot for the Hodge not to go to one of these three.
Jesse Mendez, Ohio State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 22–0 | 8 | 13 | 1.864 | 86.4% | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jesse has a few non-bonus victories on his ledger, but he has four advantages that may carry him to the Hodge: (1) he would be a three-time champion, (2) the field at 141 is stronger than 165 or 197, (3) he’s faced more of the top guys in that stronger field, (4) the last two may split the Penn State vote.
Josh Barr, Penn State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 19–0 | 4 | 12 | 2.053 | 100% | 5 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Barr has bonused everyone he’s faced after starting the season a little late after recovering from a rib injury sustained in international competition. Most of those ended early, averaging just a bit better than a tech fall. But 197 is the probably weakest field of the three in this tier, and Barr has only faced three of the top-10 (beating #10 McDanel twice). He’s also the freshest face of these three, so the “no longer an official criterion” past credentials works against him.
Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State
| Record | T-10 | Qual | Avg. Bonus | Bonus Rate | Pins | TF | MD | DQ | INJ |
| 21–0 | 5 | 12 | 2.143 | 100% | 8 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Psycho has the highest average bonus, earning more than a tech fall per match. He is also the defending champion and was a runner-up the previous year (2024). The raw dominance says he should get it over Mendez if things don’t change much, but I would not be surprised if we wind up with the third-ever split Hodge should they both win out. While there is concern about a split Penn State vote (as mentioned above), I suspect it would be a non-issue and almost everyone would vote for Mitchell over Josh.
Closing
So, what do you think? Is there something I missed? Who’s your pick for the Hodge should they win out?
Reminder
If you haven’t seen my post over in the Feed, I have formed a group for BSD in the WrestleStat championships fantasy contest. Entry is free, but you will need to make a WrestleStat account (also free). You have until wrestling starts at noon Thursday to enter. I’ll be giving a group standings update in the live threads at the end of every session. As of time of press, we have 23 entrants, which is already more than last year; 22 of which have submitted lineups (texasref, don’t forget to set a lineup before noon Thursday).
