The 4-2 Portland Trail Blazers are experiencing an early-season thrill, riding high on a victory over the Denver Nuggets and a winning record for the first time in what seems like forever. Defense is one of the main reasons the Blazers have stayed competitive so far. They’re looking thrilling on the defensive end. But is the approach really effective or is this smoke and mirrors? That’s the subject of today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.
Hi Dave,
There is much to love about our vaunted defense: steals, pressure,
energy. But then I see the numbers opponents are putting up both individually (Edwards: 41, Curry: 35, Reaves: 41) and as teams (Utah’s 134, 73 at the half) and wonder: is our defensive strategy sustainable if we can’t keep opponents from scoring? It’s great that we are winning games, but how should we assess our defense this early in the season, especially compared to OKC and other teams that lead many key defensive categories?
Thanks,
Scott
You’re correct about the defense in the abstract. Here’s where the Blazers rank in several defensive categories:
- Points Per Game Allowed–14th…not bad, but hardly elite
- Defensive Efficiency–3rd…woohoo!!!
- Opponent Points in the Paint–10th…better than past years
- Opponent Fast Break Points–23rd…not great, but the pace is fast
- Opponent Field Goal Percentage–25th…uh oh
- Opponent Three-Point Percentage–16th…meh
- Opponent Free Throw Attempts–28th…slow leak
- Opponent Offensive Rebounding Percentage–22nd…not fantastic, but small ball has a price
- Block Percentage–11th…good stuff!
- Steals Per Play–1st…top of the league!
- Opponent Assists Per Possession–4th…there we go!
- Opponent Turnovers Per Possession–1st…by a MILE too
You’ll notice that the list starts slow, then really picks up momentum near the end. The top categories are about basic, percentage defense. The last few are about opportunism and athleticism. Guess which part Portland does best?
Here’s the thing. The Blazers are so dominant in the opportunity categories that it makes up for a few cracks in the everyday defense right now. They’re going to let teams shoot near 50% sometimes. They’re going to allow opposing stars 30-40 points. It doesn’t matter as much when 10% of opposing plays are resulting in steals for Portland and 20% are resulting in turnovers in general. That’s insane. The next nearest team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, are generating turnovers on 16.6% of their possessions. The gap between Portland at #1 and Cleveland at #2 is as wide as the gap between Cleveland and the 21st team in the league.
But you don’t even need to know those numbers to assess the effectiveness of Portland’s defense. All you need to do is look at their own scoring output. They’re averaging 121.2 points per game so far this season. Last year they averaged 110.9. That’s a 10.3 point per game increase in scoring. It’s not because the Blazers got better offensive players. Arguably, they’re worse. The massive rise in scoring–22nd in the league last year to 9th right now–is coming because of the defense. It’s good for a +4.5 margin over opponents, on average. That’s all we really need to know. Portland’s offense proves the effectiveness of the “D”. As long as that number stays high, it’s best not to look too closely at anything else.
Can they keep this up? Probably not. Fatigue, injuries, and talented opponents getting ready for them will all start to eat into this early-season advantage. And that’s before the playoffs, where the game gets rougher, usually slows down, and the opposition is, by definition, elite and not prone to giving up free opportunities. But until the league proves differently, the Blazers should just keep doing what they’re doing and calling it good. That “it” very much includes their defense.
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to get to as many as possible!
