The Pittsburgh Penguins are back in the playoffs, officially clinching their spot on Thursday night with a 5-2 win over the New Jersey Devils. It ends a three-year playoff drought and gets them back into the playoffs far sooner than anybody expected when Kyle Dubas was hired as general manager to start rebuilding the organization. There is still a lot of work to do long-term, especially as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and even Erik Karlsson get closer to the end of their careers. Those
are questions for another day.
The only question that matters right now is what can the Penguins actually do now that they are in the playoffs with home-ice advantage secured in the opening round.
Given that this team has silenced doubters and exceeded expectations all season, nothing should be completely ruled out.
I said this a few weeks ago, but if you ignored the preseason expectations and just simply looked at the way this team plays and the numbers behind it, you would probably not hesitate to call it a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
As of Friday they are on pace for 101 points this season. They have the eighth-best record in the NHL as a whole, the fifth-best record in the Eastern Conference and rate in the top-10 in pretty much every meaningful category.
- Standings: 8th
- Goal-Differential: 8th
- 5-on-5 Goal Differential: 7th
- 5-on-5 Expected Goals Share: 7th
- 5-on-5 Scoring Chance Share: 10th
- 5-on-5 High-Danger Scoring Chance Share: 9th
- Power Play: 7th
- Penalty Kill: 6th
They are also the second-highest scoring team in the league behind only the Colorado Avalanche, despite Crosby, Malkin, and Rickard Rakell each missing double-digit games. The depth has been sensational as they already boast 12 10-goal scorers, 10 15-goal scorers, five 20-goal scorers, and have outscored teams 93-89 with a 52 percent expected goal share during 5-on-5 play when neither Crosby or Malkin is on the ice.
They are incredibly deep at forward with as many as 16 or 17 NHL caliber players. That is a necessary ingredient for a Stanley Cup contender.
They also have two other necessary ingredients in a true No. 1 center (Crosby) and a true No. 1 defenseman (Erik Karlsson).
No matter who their first-round opponent ends up being, whether it is the Philadelphia Flyers, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders or Washington Capitals (very long shot) the Penguins should be favorites in it. Imagine somebody telling you that back in September. You would look at them like they were crazy. Well there is nothing crazy about it now, because the Penguins are here, and they look like a team that is capable of at least advancing a little bit in the playoffs.
It is just a matter of how far they can go and what their ceiling actually is.
For all of the positives and key ingredients this team has, there are still a couple of questions that could limit what they do and how far they can go.
They can score with, and outscore, just about any team in the league.
The question will be stopping people.
While the Karlsson-Parker Wotherspoon pairing has been outstanding, the Penguins do have some big questions on defense after them.
The biggest being whether or not Kris Letang and Sam Girard can continue on the path they have started to display over the past couple of weeks.
When that duo was first put together it was a problem. A big problem. But as Girard has started to find his confidence, that pairing is starting to click a little bit. There might not be a bigger development for the Penguins right now than those two becoming a legitimate second defense pair. They are now outscoring teams 13-8 with a 52 percent expected goals share at 5-on-5 overall. Over the past 10 games those numbers are 11-5 and 58.4 percent.
That would be a game-changer to have two pairings you can count on.
The question then becomes whether or not you can hide the third pairing of Connor Clifton and Ryan Shea. And while they have been very good this season, and especially lately, I do still have some fears about Clifton in a best-of-seven series where teams are scouting deeper, line-matching harder and looking to exploit whatever weakness they can.
Then there is the goaltending.
Stuart Skinner seems to have taken the upper hand in net and is likely to enter the playoffs as the No. 1 goalie. It is deserved, and the best choice. For all of his flaws and inconsistencies, he has shown over the past two years he can play well in stretches, especially in big games, and at least do enough to get a team to the Stanley Cup Final. The Penguins do not need him to be a superhero in there. They just need him to not lose games.
I am not ready to say the Penguins are on the same level as a Colorado, Tampa Bay or even Carolina when it comes to Stanley Cup contenders. But they are also not going to be a pushover or an easy out if/when they get beyond the first round. This is a really good hockey team. A playoff team. Now we get to see just what type of playoff team they can be.
