The Seattle Seahawks third-down offense is bad. It’s hardly a new development given most of the Russell Wilson and Geno Smith seasons, but it’s been a struggle for Seattle to convert on third down to start the 2026 season.
Entering Week 5, the Seahawks rank 31st in third-down conversion rate at 31.1%, way off the pace of last season’s 39.8% rate (16th in the NFL). A couple of common themes have emerged with Seattle’s current struggles that:
Seattle is in third-and-long way too often
New year, new offensive coordinator, mostly familiar results.
When filtering out QB kneels, Seattle’s average distance to go on third down is 7.9 yards, which is tied with the Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers for fourth-longest distance in the NFL. Take a look at where the San Francisco 49ers are, by the way.
It is a low probability to convert longer down and distances, and the Seahawks have really made life difficult for themselves when they do get to a third down.
Seattle’s early down offense invites third-and-long
The Seahawks rank 25th on early-down rush attempts (per SumerSports) yet run it at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Seattle’s pass rate on 2nd and 7+ is just 52.5%, second-lowest in the league. So they’re essentially wasting downs more often than not.
At the moment, the Seahawks do not have the type of offense that can control a game through the run. They are a much better passing team on early downs yet adopt a run-first mentality.
Pre-snap penalties have also hurt the Seahawks, with multiple drives derailed by false starts. The Seahawks already have nine false starts on offense this season, halfway to matching their 2025 total (playoffs included). You can’t have drive-killing penalties on offense and drive-extenders on defense, which Seattle has had in abundance to start the year.
Opposing defenses are blitzing the Seahawks at a comically high rate
This is from NFL Pro/Next Gen Stats:
Seattle’s passing offense has been blitzed on third downs at a higher rate than any other team, and it’s not even remotely close. It’s pure sicko mode to have nearly 60 percent of your dropbacks blitzed on any down, let alone the money down.
But the difference between the Seahawks getting blitzed excessively on early downs and late downs is all about personnel. When the Seahawks play early downs, they are overwhelmingly an under center offense in 12, 13, or 21 personnel. They’re carrying at least an extra tight end and/or Brady Russell more than 60 percent of the time when it’s first or second down. Once it hits third down, the Seahawks are in 11 personnel at an 80 percent clip, which is actually not high compared to the rest of the NFL. Say goodbye to your extra protection, goodbye to play-action in hopes of freezing the defense for a split second, hello to an obvious passing situation.
It’s early days, but the results have not been good for Sam Darnold. When he’s put in unfavorable spots and the Seahawks can’t resort to play-action from heavy personnel and condensed splits, the operation is not very clean.
The blitzing won’t stop unless the Seahawks can get out of constant third-and-long situations, and/or the offense can actually punish these blitzes in some form. Neither is happening right now, and it’s part of why the Seahawks offense has been worse than the three straight games of 30+ points suggests. Of their 13 touchdown drives, only four have involved multiple third-down conversions. When they’re cooking on early downs, they’re in great shape. When they aren’t, there’s trouble ahead that the Seahawks have yet to solve.
