In fairness, I did ask the real 2025 Dodgers to stand up. In retrospect, I probably should have been a bit more specific. At the start of the year, I worried that the Dodgers’ short offseason heading into international play would lead to a hangover.
The hangover came well into the summer. At some point, a slump becomes more than a slump; it becomes the new normal.
Since July 4, the Dodgers have gone 20-25, which is part of a four-way tie for the eighth-worst mark in the sport with the Pittsburgh Pirates,
Chicago White Sox, and Houston Astros. Generally, the teams on this list are the usual suspects of failure, mediocrity, or incompetence.
- T-1st: Washington Nationals (16-29)
- T-1st: Tampa Bay Rays (16-29)
- 3rd: San Francisco Giants (17-27)
- T-4th: Colorado Rockies (18-27)
- T-4th: St. Louis Cardinals (18-27)
- 6th: Anaheim Angels (19-27)
- 7th: Minnesota Twins (19-26)
- T-8th: Dodgers
- T-8th: Pittsburgh Pirates (20-25)
- T-8th: Chicago White Sox (20-25)
- T-8th: Houston Astros (20-25)
One bright spot is that this trendline has been pointing upward for the Dodgers. Before the conclusion of the recent series in San Diego, the Dodgers had the fifth-worst record in baseball over this timeframe.
But like most trainwrecks, the failure points were there from the beginning. A record-setting start with fits and bursts of inconsistent greatness. Essentially, a sports car with a slightly out-of-tune engine. However, much like a housing bubble or someone who eats nothing but junk food and somehow still skinny, nature abhors situations that defy logic, and eventually facts force themselves to the forefront.
The best team in baseball couldn’t turn out to be a paper tiger, could it? The Dodgers prevailed in 2024, in part, because the team, as depleted as it was, did all the little things right (and got a performance from the ages from Freddie Freeman).
The middle 54 games told the ongoing story: where there was promise, there were now injuries, sustained underperformance by key contributors, and a bullpen being used at an unsustainable rate. Those who raised warning flags or concerns were chided to look at the Dodgers’ record.
Yes, the Dodgers swept the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium, which honestly feels more like an indictment of our southern cousins at this point than validation that the Dodgers are consistently doing anything right. It is not as if the Padres went on a torrid run a la the 42-8 2013 Dodgers. The Padres are 29-18 since July 4th, which is pretty good for sure, and certainly better than the Philadelphia Phillies’ 25-20 record over the same period.
Even after the Dodgers somehow pulled off a sweep against the Padres, things felt off. Dave Roberts admitted as much before the Sunday finale of the rematch against the Padres in San Diego.
There were warning signs. A weekend sweep against the Padres at Dodger Stadium a week ago masked some of the “under the hood” issues that have plagued the Dodgers for months, Roberts said. Those continued through two surprising power outages at Coors Field this week against an inept Colorado Rockies pitching staff.
The Dodgers escaped San Diego, avoiding a sweep. Since that Sunday escape, the Dodgers are starting to finally, somehow resemble what they were supposed to be playing like all year. It has not been perfect, but it has been far more watchable and far more complete since the dregs of the past two months.
Playoff picture comes into focus
With all the focus right now on the question of who wins the NL West, as of right now, that question is the wrong question. In a very real sense, it does not matter who is leading the division right now, as both the Dodgers and Padres are trailing the Philadelphia Phillies and essentially squabbling over the third seed and a berth in the Wild Card Round.
The Dodgers are all but guaranteed to finish with a worse record than last year. The Dodgers retaking the top seed in the National League would require an equally unlikely hot streak coupled with a collapse from the Milwaukee Brewers. Rather than focus on the extremes, let us focus on the adage of outrunning a bear.
To survive when being chased by a bear, one does not need to outrun the bear; one needs to outrun the next-slowest person.
For as much juice as people are trying to pump into the last month of the season, the playoff participants of the National League in 2025 are largely set, barring generational and inexplicable collapses. The Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, and Dodgers are all very likely to make the postseason tournament.
Right now, the Phillies have a half-game lead over the current third-seeded Dodgers.
Now, the Padres have already completed their season series with the Phillies and are deadlocked at three wins apiece, which would necessitate the next tiebreaker: intradivision record. If the Padres win the West, the only way that they could claim the second seed is by this metric. Currently, the Padres hold a 24-18 record in the NL West, while the Phillies have a 20-17 record in the NL East.
It is not yet worth conducting this analysis for the Dodgers, as the team still has three games remaining against the Phillies in Los Angeles in mid-September. The question of whether the Dodgers can retake the second seed is one for a later day.
What is up for grabs is the seeding and the final Wild Card Spot. With two exceptions, the rest of the National League has been effectively eliminated. The two exceptions are the New York Mets, the current sixth seed, and the soon-to-depart Cincinnati Reds.
Last night’s victory against the Reds did something absent for most of the title defense: avert the worst possible outcome as the Dodgers clinched the season series against the Reds.
The Mets lead the Reds for the final playoff spot by 3 1/2 games. However, the Reds have been playing roughly .500 ball since July, and the Mets have been playing .475 ball. At some point, one would expect those lines to intersect, assuming there was enough schedule runway left.
Frankly, the two teams are on a collision course as the Mets and the Reds play their final three games against each other in Cincinnati the week of Labor Day.
The Dodgers effectively have a four-and-a-half-game lead on the Mets and an eight-game lead on the Reds. For as many things that have gone wrong for the Dodgers in 2025, last night’s win effectively foreclosed the worst-case scenario of missing the playoffs. While one might think such thoughts are needlessly pessimistic, I would remind them that even the most ardent pessimists would not have imagined the Dodgers would have had as rough a season as they have had in 2025, when the team was playing in Japan.
The Dodgers did lose the season series against the Mets, so if somehow the bottom were to drop out over the next month, the Dodgers would need to finish with a better record than the Mets if things got to that dire point.
Considering the players returning to active duty, the worst-case scenario seems a lot less likely than it did even 24 or 48 hours ago. Winning often solves most problems, including mathematical ones.
