Well, here we are, welcoming the San Diego Padres to Wrigley Field for a postseason series with games scheduled for two beautiful early-fall afternoons. Forty-one years ago this week, the two teams did the same and the Cubs won both of the Wrigley Field games. (Let’s not talk about what happened after that.)
For more on the Padres, here’s Matthew DeWalt, manager of our SB Nation Padres site Gaslamp Ball
.The San Diego Padres wrapped up the 2025 regular season winning five of their last six games.
They outscored their opponents 37-16 over that span and appear to be gaining momentum at the right time.
Injuries have limited production from players in the lineup and on the mound at points during the season, but San Diego has a complete roster after the additions of Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin at the trade deadline. The Padres also added Ramón Laureano, but he suffered a broken finger and will miss the Wild Card Series.
San Diego leadoff hitter Fernando Tatis Jr. found his power in the final weeks of the season, hitting seven home runs in the month of September. He is joined by Luis Arraez, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets, O’Hearn, Jake Cronenworth and Fermin to create a lineup that has the ability to matchup with the Cubs.
The Padres are sending Nick Pivetta to the mound in Game 1 and he has been the most consistent performer in the San Diego starting rotation. The Game 2 starter is TBD, but could be any one of Dylan Cease, Michael King or Yu Darvish.
The strength of the Padres is the bullpen. Adrian Morejon, former Cub Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Miller and Robert Suarez make up the back end of the ‘pen, which helps to shorten games.
The Padres have struggled with allowing the long ball and first inning runs in recent weeks. It seemed that teams would sellout to get to a San Diego starter early in the contest, knowing that if they found themselves behind after four or five innings they would be facing a hard-throwing reliever each inning over the remainder of the game, limiting their opportunities to score.
After a 24-inning scoreless streak to end the Padres’ season and playoff run in 2024, I would expect them to be aggressive and look to get on the scoreboard early in an effort to take pressure off their pitching and eventually hand the game over to the league’s best bullpen. If they can stick to their formula, the Padres could have success, but if they continue to allow home runs and early runs, it will be a short and potentially ugly series.
Fun facts
The Cubs have a .580 winning percentage at home against the Padres in regular-season games: 152-110, including 2-1 this year. That is the Cubs’ best winning percentage against any National League opponent since 1969, when the Padres joined the league. The Cubs’ next-best performance at home is .574, vs. the Rockies (66-49), followed by .554 vs. the Cardinals (261-210-1), .549 vs. the Marlins (67-55) and .537 vs. the Pirates (249-215).
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This is the first year in which the Padres have made a second visit to Wrigley Field since 2007. That year, the Cubs won and lost games, April 16-17, then won and lost twice, June 15-17.
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The teams have met in 86 regular-season series at Wrigley. The Cubs have won 48 of the series, lost 30 and split 8. The Cubs are 52-34 in both first and second games of those series. They are 45-36 in third games.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Tuesday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (14-8, 3.21 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 3.65 FIP) vs. Nick Pivetta, RHP (13-5, 2.87 ERA, 0.985 WHIP, 3.49 FIP)
Wednesday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (9-8, 3.73 ERA, 0.988 WHIP, 4.86 FIP) vs. Dylan Cease, RHP (8-12, 4.55 ERA, 1.327 WHIP, 3.56 FIP)
Thursday (if necessary): Jameson Taillon, RHP (11-7, 3.68 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 4.66 FIP) vs. Yu Darvish, RHP (5-5, 5.38 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, 4.82 FIP)
NOTE: The Cubs have not yet officially announced starters for Game 2 or Game 3. Imanaga and Taillon are simply my speculation. The Padres have officially announced the three starters as listed. As always, we await developments.
Times & TV channels
Tuesday: 2:08 p.m. CT, ABC-TV (check local listings)
Wednesday: 2:08 p.m. CT, ABC-TV (check local listings)
Thursday (if necessary): TBD, ABC or ESPN
As always, the games will be on radio via 670 The Score and the Cubs radio network with Pat Hughes and Ron Coomer.
Prediction
As noted by Matthew DeWalt, the Padres are a good team and had a hot stretch at the end of the regular season.
But the Cubs did too, winning four of their last five regular-season games and outscoring the Mets and Cardinals in those games 36-15.
The Cubs were 50-29 at Wrigley Field in the regular season and took two of three from the Padres there (and might have swept them if not for some sketchy defense in the ninth inning of the third game). The Padres had a losing road record this year (38-43).
The Cubs will win this series two games to one.
Up next
If the Cubs win the series, they will face the Brewers in a best-of-five Division Series beginning Saturday in Milwaukee.
If not… we’ll see them in 2026.
