The Rainbow Warriors and UC Irvine might be on a collision course, but UC San Diego is a possible upsetter in the Big West men’s conference tournament. The action starts Thursday.
Big West Men’s Conference Tournament Bracket
UC Irvine (1)
Russ Turner’s Zots are back on top. Behind another 6-foot-10 rim-protecting behemoth (Kyle Evans), UC Irvine’s defensive scheme again led the nation in 2-point shooting allowed. While the offense can stall at times, the Anteaters have some shooting, and I trust
Jurian Dixon’s dribble creation — an elite defense and a good guard gives you a high floor in March.
Hawaii (2)
The Bows helped usher in the drop-coverage revolution a few years ago, and 2026 was Eran Ganot’s Mona Lisa. They force opponents to score in the middle of the floor better than almost any team in the nation, and they rebound everything. Hawaii boasts a solid rim-oriented offense around 7-foot big man Isaac Johnson, but it’d be nice if the guards would stop turning the ball over.
Cal State Fullerton (3)
One of three ultra-high-tempo squads in the Big West (sixth nationally in adjusted tempo). The Titans are a fantastic two-way turnover squad, but their aggressive defense gifts opponents both the rim and wide-open catch-and-shoot 3s.
Cal State Northridge (4)
Another supercharged squad (second nationally in adjusted tempo). The Matadors are monsters on the boards, but they don’t do much else well.
UC San Diego (5)
After a red-hot start to Clint Allard’s tenure, the Tritons slipped in late January, which ultimately hurt them in the season-long conference standings. But so much of their inside-out motion offense is predicated on catch-and-shoot triples, especially because they don’t create many easy buckets (don’t get to the line or snag offensive rebounds), and they didn’t make enough this year. That said, the unathletic defense trended up during conference play, and the Tritons ended the season winning six of their final seven. I think they’re dangerous in this tournament.
UC Davis (6)
The Aggies will turn you over, get to the line, and shoot 3s. Marcus Wilson is a very good point guard. Counteract those avenues, and Jim Les’ team isn’t overly scary.
UC Santa Barbara (7)
Behind down-transfer Aidan Mahaney, the Gauchos can shoot. But they need to make their 3s to overcome a disastrous turnover differential. That might not even be enough, given they got crazy lucky with two-way shooting variance and still lost five of their final six by running a +36 turnover differential (84 turnovers, 48 turnovers forced).
Cal Poly (8)
The fastest-paced squad nationally. The Mustangs are a dangerous offense because Hamad Mousa is such a weapon as a small-ball stretch five, but they do so many other things wrong — too many turnovers, not enough rebounds, not enough interior defense (partially because of Mousa’s smaller stature).
Tournament Thoughts
I bet UC San Diego makes a run to the semis, but ultimately falls to UC Irvine.
Then, I bet Hawaii breaks Irvine in the tournament championship, earning the Rainbow Warriors their first Big Dance Bid since 2016.
Official (Wrong) Tournament Champ Prediction: Hawaii over UC Irvine, 70-68
