As the FIBA World Cup break looms, the WNBA’s playoff picture is looking a lot clearer.
We know who will be playing in the postseason now that all eight teams have clinched their spots. However, seeding is still very much up for grabs.
Only three games separate the No. 3 seed and the No. 8 seed, so which teams will have homecourt in the opening round and beyond is still unknown. Here is an overview of the current playoff outlook for each team, with every team having about five games left to play.
No. 1-seed Minnesota Lynx (31-8)
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Minnesota Lynx are sitting pretty as the top seed. They are three games in front of the No. 2-seed Golden State Valkyries, and considering that they won the season series, only an utter collapse will have them falling in the standings.
Minnesota is right where they want to be: in complete control of their destiny.
No. 2-seed Golden State Valkyries (28-11)
The Valkyries might not catch the Lynx, but they have to keep playing to win.
The Las Vegas Aces are right behind them, just two games back in the standings. Since they lost all three matchups against Las Vegas, the Aces own the tiebreaker. So, the Valkyries need a couple more wins to lock up the second-best record in the WNBA.
No. 3-seed Las Vegas Aces (26-13)
Here is where things start to get interesting.
The Aces are just a half game ahead of the Atlanta Dream and a full game in front of the Indiana Fever. Even with just five games left, that leaves plenty of possibilities.
Las Vegas owns the tiebreaker over the Dream, but they lost the season series against the Fever. Luckily, they have the easiest schedule in the WNBA, giving them an advantage as they try to maintain their position.
However, the season-ending injury to NaLyssa Smith could result in the Aces experiencing more challenges than their strength of schedule suggests.
No. 4-seed Atlanta Dream (25-13)
The Dream have had a very good year. Head coach Karl Smesko has his team on track for another season with a better than 60-percent winning percentage. They are hanging on to the No. 4 spot, just a half game in front of the Fever.
Atlanta and Indiana split their head-to-head matchups, and they are currently neck and neck on the next tiebreaker, which is the best record against teams with a record over .500.
The Dream are 11-11 and the Fever are 10-12 against winning teams, so the team that will end up with the fourth seed will likely come down to the last weekend of the WNBA season.
No. 5-seed Indiana Fever (25-14)
The Fever have the firepower to win it all. But, they need to stack up some victories to be in position to do it.
That’s not going to be easy for Indiana because they have so many matchups left against playoff opponents. They play the Lynx twice and face the Washington Mystics, New York Liberty and Dallas Wings.
If they are truly title contenders, then they’ll win more than they lose and will stay at the No. 5 spot, and perhaps even jump up in the standings.
No. 6-seed Washington Mystics (24-15)
The Mystics have been the pleasant surprise of the year. Their youth movement is ahead of schedule, and they’ll be competing in the playoffs this year instead of tanking for a draft pick.
They are only a game ahead of the Wings and Liberty, so they could still drop down to eighth if they have a bad ending to the regular season. Regardless, it’s been a good year in Washington, and they are playing with house money.
There is no pressure at this point, and whatever happens will be a good learning experience for the Mystics as their rebuild is going better than anyone, even if the organization itself, could have envisioned.
No. 7-seed Dallas Wings (23-16)
The Wings have been up and down lately. While they’ve won three-straight games, they’re 5-5 over their last 10 contests, and with Azzi Fudd out for the rest of the year, it’s hard to see how they can make a jump in the standings.
However, with Paige Bueckers, all things are possible. Dallas is just a game behind the Mystics, so there is hope they can avoid the bottom two playoff spots.
No. 8-seed New York Liberty (23-16)
The Liberty’s entire year has been a struggle.
They were supposed to take a step forward, and they’ve done the opposite. Unless they dominate their remaining schedule, they’ll finish with their worst winning percentage since 2022.
The good news is they’re in the playoffs. Also, with five games left, a strong finish could push them as high as the No. 4 seed. It’s unlikely they’ll end up that high, but they can finish better than they currently stand.
Despite all eight teams securing their spot, just getting in isn’t the only thing that matters.
Last year, the only lower seed to win in the first round was the No. 6-seed Fever. Homecourt advantage is incredibly value, so every team needs to try to set themselves up for success. When the World Cup break ends, there will be just one week of WNBA regular-season action for these eight teams to improve their playoff position, or put themselves at risk of an early postseason exit.
Jump in the comments and let us know how you think the playoff seeds will shake out.
